887
FXUS62 KTBW 191411
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
911 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Dense sea fog has overspread coastal areas from around Tampa Bay
south as winds have begun to turn more southwestwerly. At the same
time the line of showers and a few thunderstorms has been
moving/developing over the northern and central coastal waters and
Nature Coast. This convection will continue to move southeast
across the remainder of the area helping to erase the sea fog.
Airmass south of the convection is warm and moist wtih
temperatures and dew points in the uper 60s to lower 70s so a
couple of the storms could become strong with gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. The actual cold front is a few hours
behind the convection so a few showers will linger the rest of
thsi afternoon, otherwise cooler drier air will return tonight.
Overall the current forecast looks on track with no changes needed
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 910 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Areas of sea fog will continue to impact TPA, PIE, and SRQ this
morning with LIFR conditions at times, while further south IFR
conditions will be possible at PGD, FMY, and RSW. Conditions will
improve some as the line of showers and thunderstorms moves south
through the region later this morning and afternoon, but MVFR/local
IFR conditions are still expected. Behind the convection areas of
MVFR ceilings will persist into early this evening, then VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF forecast
period. Gusty south to southwest winds at 12 to 18 knots will
become northwest winds this afternoon as the front moves across
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025
Widespread sea fog over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this
morning is advecting locally onshore. A dense fog advisory is in
effect for the coastal waters, and a dense fog advisory may be
needed in the next few hours for areas near and along the coast. A
cold front over north Florida will move down the Florida peninsula
today with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty
south to southwest winds ahead of the front will become northwest
behind the front. The sea fog will lift from north to south as
the cold front pushes across the region. The gusty southerly winds
ahead of...and gusty northerly winds behind the front will create
a high risk for rip currents today through Monday along area
beaches.

Much colder drier Canadian air will advect across the forecast
area late today and tonight. Overnight lows will be around
freezing far north, lower 40s central, and upper 40s to around 50
south. Winds of 5 to 10 MPH will create borderline advisory level
wind chills around sunrise Monday morning...with mid to upper 20s
north, mid to upper 30s central, and lower to mid 40s south.

Given the strong southern stream jet that will persist across the
Gulf of Mexico and Florida, considerable mid/high cloudiness will
persist over the region on Monday. This will contribute in
holding max temps down to around 50 to the lower 50s north, mid
50s central, and the upper 50s to lower 60s south.

The next upstream disturbance will approach the western Gulf of
Mexico Monday night with an area of low pressure forming over the
western Gulf. A strong baroclinic zone will be located over south
Florida/Florida straits, and strong over-running will develop over
the central Florida peninsula with an area of rain developing
across much of the forecast area. This will be enhanced as the
U/L energy approaches the area through the day on Tuesday, with
the main system moving across the peninsula Tuesday night.
Probabilistic guidance suggests mean rainfall will be around to
just over an inch north and central, and about 0.75 inches south.
Rainfall may be locally heavy, and guidance suggests there is
about a 10 to 15 percent probability of over 2 inches north and
central, and over 1.5 inches south.

As the system exits the region late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning, there is also the potential that as a reinforcing shot
of cold Canadian air begins to advect back over the area in the
systems wake, that the very tail end of the precip shield could
become a mix of light rain/freezing rain...specifically Levy
county. Will have to closely monitor evolution of this over the
next several days. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop
late Tuesday night and Wednesday and may cause wind chill issues
with the best chance across the northern and central forecast
area.

Another U/L disturbance will bring a chance of showers on
Thursday. Then the U/L pattern will begin to change as the
persistent L/W trough finally ejects east of the region with
another shot of cold Canadian air advecting across the forecast
area for Friday and Saturday in the wake of this last system. The
U/L pattern will become temporarily quasi-zonal before the it
fully transitions, which will allow temperatures and low level
moisture to recover across west central and southwest Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025
Gusty south to southwest winds ahead of a cold front this morning
will become northwest this afternoon and will create advisory
levels winds through Monday. Winds will remain elevated Monday
night and Tuesday at cautionary levels, but can`t rule out a few
periods SCA conditions, especially central and south. SCA
conditions will likely develop across the waters Tuesday night and
Wednesday as an area of low pressure moves across the eastern
Gulf. Winds and seas will subside Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  43  55  45 /  90  10   0  50
FMY  78  51  63  51 /  60  10  10  50
GIF  76  45  56  45 /  90  10   0  50
SRQ  74  45  57  45 /  90  10   0  60
BKV  71  37  54  38 /  90  10   0  40
SPG  69  45  54  47 /  90  10   0  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...RDavis/Flannery