502
FXUS62 KTBW 101200
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

With an upper-level disturbance and a very saturated atmosphere
across the region today, MVFR CIGs and widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Terminals across SWFL have already been
experiencing some impacts this morning. However, the period of
highest impacts is favored this afternoon when heating and
instability are maximized. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions and thunderstorm wind gusts
of 20 to 25kts. A more typical pattern returns tomorrow with mainly
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The weak tropical wave over the central Gulf will gradually
dissipate today, but will continue to pump deep tropical moisture
into the Florida Peninsula under southeast flow. This pattern will
support another day of widespread showers and storms, with
convection over the coastal waters potentially moving onshore at
times through the morning, then widespread activity developing
over the Florida Peninsula by mid afternoon and continuing through
the early evening. A few spots could see rain totals of several
inches this afternoon, resulting in isolated flooding.

By Monday, the tropical wave will be dissipating and moving away,
with surface high pressure setting up north of Florida. This will
keep southeasterly flow in place but will moderate atmospheric
moisture through the rest of the week. While numerous showers and
storms will still develop each day, rain totals are forecast to
be closer to normal, with a lower risk of additional flooding.

Tuesday through the rest of the week, upper/mid level ridging will
build in over Florida, with broad subsidence allowing temperatures
to warm up again. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 90s each
day away from the immediate coast, allowing heat indices to approach
heat advisory criteria each day late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A weak inverted trough will linger in the central Gulf today,
bringing in deep moisture and southeast to south winds of around
15 knots or less. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
possible today and Monday, causing locally higher winds and
hazardous boating conditions. Monday night through the rest of the
week, surface high pressure sets up north of Florida, continuing
the southeast low level flow but bringing in slightly drier air.
However, this will still be enough moisture to result in numerous
showers and storms each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Deep moisture will hold over the area through the next couple of
days, with widespread showers developing each day, mainly in the
afternoon and early evening hours. No humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  93  79 /  80  60  70  40
FMY  90  76  94  77 /  90  50  80  30
GIF  91  75  94  77 /  80  50  70  20
SRQ  88  75  93  76 /  90  60  70  40
BKV  90  73  93  74 /  80  60  70  30
SPG  87  77  90  79 /  90  70  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Fleming