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076
FNUS72 KTAE 281339
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for JC 14...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
839 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...LOW DISPERSIONS THIS MORNING, IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
Light, less than 5 mph, northeasterly winds will prevail at the
burn site through the morning hours but as conditions warm and
mixing heights increase, expect wind directions to become variable
and lighter by 11am or noon. As further mixing and warming
develops, westerly winds will develop at the site in the early
afternoon hours. By 2 or 3pm local time expect a seabreeze to
develop and move across the burn site which will bring an increase
in winds and a change of direction out of the southwest. Minimum
relative humidities around 23% are forecast but if conditions warm
more than forecast and the seabreeze takes longer to develop,
minimum relative humidities could drop as low as 20% at the site.
Transport winds will be light and northeasterly in the morning but
eventually become steadily westerly as mixing heights increase
through the day. This will keep dispersions fairly poor until the
afternoon when stronger winds allow dispersions to increase to
fair values. Patchy fog is possible tonight, but confidence and
probabilities were too low to mention in the forecast table below.
Stronger winds are forecast at the burn site Saturday, but they
should still remain below critical values and minimum humidities
are forecast to be higher on Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   0   1   2   2   2   2   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  62  66  71  72  73  74  73  71
RH..............49  39  32  27  24  23  24  28  32
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  VRB VRB W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   1   1   2   4   7   9
20 FT wind gust.7   8   6   3   3   6   7   9   13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   9   8   6   5   6   7   8   9
Dispersion......16  21  26  23  22  27  33  38  30
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   4   3   6   11  16  16  31  35  47  41  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............68  61  58  56  54  53  52  51  50  49  49  48
RH..............39  50  57  64  69  71  74  80  83  89  89  96
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion......19  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   6   6   7

.SATURDAY...
TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........37  27  21  18  9   2   2   1   1   3   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  48  50  55  62  66  70  73  74  75  76  73
RH..............89  89  89  77  60  48  39  34  33  32  32  38
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   2   3   5   5   5   6   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.3   3   5   7   9   10  10  10  12  13  15  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 3.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   9   10  12  12  12  13  13  13  13
Dispersion......3   8   9   15  23  36  50  61  63  67  66  50
LVORI...........6   4   5   4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Dobbs
Requested by...Fulton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2504367.0/TAE
.DELDT 02/28/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL opal.fulton@fdacs.gov