909
FXUS62 KTAE 081510
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

The previous forecast appears to be on track. No changes were
necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

A cold and dry airmass will carry on through Thursday morning.

A fast-moving shortwave crossing the Mid-Mississippi Valley this
morning will exit the U.S. East Coast late tonight. In its wake,
surface high pressure currently over the Central Plains will move
across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions tonight,
offering some reinforcement of the cold air mass. The character of
the air mass will get even colder tonight, as seen in a further
lowering of low-level thickness values on Thursday morning
compared with this morning.

Except at the immediate coast, low temperatures tonight will be
in the 20s on a widespread basis, with hard freeze temperatures
(less than 25F) forecast north of a Dothan-Albany line. When
accounting for a 5 mph breeze around sunrise Thursday, apparent
temperatures (wind chill temps) will bottom out in the upper teens
to low 20s areawide. So once this morning`s round of Cold Weather
Advisories expires, expect an even more far-reaching round of
Cold Weather Advisories to be issued for tonight, likely
encompassing nearly the entire tri-state service area. Freeze
Warnings will also be needed where we meet the criteria of air
temps below 25 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

The surface high pressure that has been keeping us cold and dry
will begin to lift north and east through the day on Thursday.
Temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 40s in our AL and GA
counties and low-mid 50s for our FL counties. Temperatures
Thursday night will be in the low 30s, with possible upper 30s
along the Emerald Coast.

An upper level ridge will move east over the Tri-State region
providing southwest flow aloft. This will pull in moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico as a Gulf Low approaches from the Texas coast.

As the low approaches, how it sets up will determine our
expectations for weather and potential weather types for Friday.
Regardless, there is a high chance for showers to move in from
west to east on Friday and continuing into Saturday morning, with
PoPs ranging from 70%-90% overnight Friday. Thunderstorms are not
expected as any instability looks to remain offshore; however
there may be a slight chance over the SE Big Bend.

The complicated part of this forecast will be the exact track of
the Low and what surface temperatures we can expect. If the Low
moves further north, it could bring its attendant warm front
onshore. This will increase the instability on land and introduce
the potential for thunderstorms and possible low-end severe storms
for the Florida coastal regions. If the low tracks further south
and the timing is right, freezing precipitation (either light
freezing rain or sleet) could be possible along our northern edge
of the Alabama/Georgia Wiregrass region. If this occurs, no
freezing accumulations are expected and should change over to rain
as temperatures rise above freezing.

There will be tweaks and adjustments made in the forecast over
the next few days leading up to the event, and as our confidence
increases.

The Gulf low exits the region to our northeast on Saturday, when
we will feel the affects of its attending cold front. Temperatures
behind the front will be cold in the 40s and 30s Saturday morning
and will only rise to the upper 40s/low 50s for most of the
region. The SE Big Bend will be delayed with the warmer
temperatures occurring in the morning ahead of the front and
falling throughout the day; only rising to the low 50s in the
afternoon. Rain chances will be quickly diminishing through the
day Saturday, with another cold night in store with lows in the
mid/upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Everything has calmed down as a surface high settles over the
region on Sunday, along with light winds. Temperatures will be
cool with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. There`s
a slight chance for rain on Monday as a quick moving shortwave
passes but PoPs are limited to less than 30% with most of the rain
remaining offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

A dry and stable air mass will keep skies clear and visibility
unrestricted for the through Thursday morning. Northwest to north
winds are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Benign conditions will prevail over the waters for today.
Southeasterly winds will begin increasing to advisory levels and
occasional Gale force conditions on Friday as a strengthening Gulf
Low approaches from the west. This will be accompanied by showers
and a slight chance for thunderstorms. Winds and seas will begin
to diminish Saturday night into Sunday, leading to favorable
boating conditions for the start of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

A cold, dry and stable air mass will prevail through Thursday,
with a continuation of northwest to northerly breezes. As surface
high pressure makes its closest approach to our north on Thursday,
northerly winds will decrease enough to allow for only fair
dispersion values. On Friday, low pressure will move eastward
along the northern Gulf Coast, and a warm front near the coast
will struggle to spread inland. Clouds, some rain, and a brief
period of southerly flow will lead to much higher humidity on
Friday. North of the warm front over inland areas, poor daytime
dispersion is likely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Showers return to the region on Friday into Saturday. Depending
on the track of the Gulf low will determine how much rain we
receive and where the heaviest precip will fall. However, given
antecedent conditions, flooding concerns are minimal.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   52  28  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  30  52  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  25  49  33 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        49  24  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  27  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    56  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  31  52  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery