071
FXUS62 KTAE 082319
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
719 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Scattered showers/storms are ongoing this hour and this activity
should continue into the afternoon and early evening before
activity diminishes tonight. While most areas should see a quiet
overnight, there is some potential for overnight storms to
redevelop across our eastern most Georgia counties along the I-75
corridor. The forcing mechanisms for this storm potential is
fairly weak but a weak surface trough and confluent flow from
leftover seabreeze boundaries and weak ascent aloft could lead to
the development of showers and thunderstorms amongst a fairly
unstable airmass. Storm motions are likely to be somewhat slow so
localized flooding rains up to 3 to 4 inches across can`t be
ruled out overnight near the I-75 corridor.

This activity, if it develops, likely wanes by sunrise and as a
broad upper level trough passes by the region well to our north,
slightly elevated westerly flow should prevail over the region.
Widely scattered showers and storms are expected again on
Wednesday, but with the stronger westerly flow, the highest
probabilities for coverage will be along the eastern portions of
the forecast area with more scattered activity expected along the
Panhandle and into southeast Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...

A fairly typical summertime pattern is expected for the upcoming
week with daily diurnal showers and storms. Ample moisture overhead
along with light to moderate southwest flow will help enhance the
Panhandle coast seabreeze and allow those storms to migrate further
inland. A few storms could become strong and produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall, although widespread severe weather is not
expected. Ridging begins to build in over the weekend into early
next week, dampening PoPs a bit and allowing highs to climb a few
degrees warmer. A few spots could end up reaching heat advisory
criteria, especially late weekend into early next week when the
ridge is overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity is quickly waning across the area,
and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night and
into tomorrow morning for all terminals. Another round of showers
and storms are anticipated to develop Wednesday afternoon with a
general west-east progression through the afternoon. The prevailing
weak westerly/southwesterly flow favors our central and easternmost
terminals most for thunderstorm activity. Regardless, the only
terminal restrictions tomorrow would be brief MVFR/IFR conditions in
heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light west to
southwest flow which will be enhanced near the coast by the
afternoon sea breeze. Convection will be concentrated in the morning
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Winds will become more southwesterly by Wednesday and remain that
way through the week. This will allow increasing moisture
throughout the Tri-State region and a return to more summertime
conditions. Meaning, highs in the 90s each day, heat indices
pushing the low to mid 100s in spots, and increasing chances for
late morning through mid evening thunderstorms. Dispersions and
transport winds appear favorable over the next couple days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of the
summer wet season, riverine flooding is not expected. Isolated
downpours could lead to flash flooding concerns, especially in areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  92  75  93 /  20  50  20  50
Panama City   78  91  78  90 /  10  30  20  30
Dothan        74  93  74  93 /  20  40  20  50
Albany        75  93  73  93 /  20  60  30  50
Valdosta      75  93  74  95 /  40  70  20  50
Cross City    74  90  73  92 /  30  40  20  30
Apalachicola  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Oliver