003
FXUS62 KTAE 161823
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
223 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Surface high pressure passes just north and then northeast of the
region tonight through Thursday. This will lead to light winds and
a continuation of clear skies overnight. This should also allow
good radiational cooling conditions and overnight lows will drop
into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight. As surface high pressure
moves east on Thursday, winds will turn southeasterly and begin to
warm. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Thursday.
With plenty of dry air still around, and the potential for
good mixing during the afternoon, another day of very low relative
humidity is expected. This will lead to somewhat elevated fire
concerns for the day. Please remember to be cautious with any
activity involving flame.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Temperatures will warm through the upcoming weekend and into early
next week with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and near 90
in some locations by the weekend. An upper level ridge will
establish itself over the southeast through the weekend and into
early next week with several weather systems staying well north
and west of the forecast area as southerly flow generally prevails
through the period. As the ridge begins to weaken by next week,
some low-level moisture and perhaps a weak cold front could help
generate daily chances for showers/storms, but probabilities for
any higher rainfall still looks very low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light north winds
expected at all terminals, likely going calm tonight. Winds could
switch to southwesterly at ECP as a seabreeze develops after 20z.
Flow becomes south and southeasterly tomorrow at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Winds and seas begin to clock around to the southeast on
Thursday. Daily southeasterly surges can be expected around
daybreak with winds around 10-15 kts and occasional gusts to 20
knots through Friday. Seas will increase accordingly with seas
likely 2 to 4 feet from Friday onwards into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Light northerly transport winds Thursday morning become
southeasterly and then southerly through the day with another dry
afternoon expected. Relative humidities could drop down to around
20 to 25% across much of the area. Stronger winds expected on
Friday as southerly flow moves in. Dispersions will be higher but
relative humidity values will also climb some and despite the
higher dispersions, this should lower fire weather concerns
slightly into the weekend. There are no chances for a wetting
rain until next week, and even then only a slight chance of
showers and storms is forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Rain chances through Sunday are nearly nil. Less than a quarter
of an inch of rainfall is expected for the region through early
next week, there are currently no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   54  80  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        50  83  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        49  82  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  84  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    47  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  55  76  63  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs