382
FXUS62 KTAE 300747
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
347 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Upper level low pressure holds over much of the eastern U.S. today,
before lifting  into the Northeast. As the low lifts to the north,
ridging over the southwest Atlantic expands slightly towards the
U.S. coast. Flow generally appears to be from the southwest or so,
which could kick up some Gulf showers and thunderstorms, perhaps
making into the FL Big Bend. Opted to keep precipitation chances
around 20-40 percent or so, with drier conditions expected
elsewhere. Highs for today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with
heat index values in the low to mid 90s. For those working outdoors,
be sure to take frequent breaks, stay hydrated, and rest in shade.
You can find more ways to practice heat safety at
weather.gov/heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

We are slated to be sandwiched between two ridges on our western and
eastern flanks with a dampening upper trough along the Mid-Atlantic
States early/mid-week. Meanwhile, a SW-NE-oriented plume of
tropical moisture prevails over the Gulf. A weak shortwave
rotating down the MS Valley keeps this plume mainly pinned
primarily offshore. Northerly to NE surface winds foster a dry
airmass (i.e., 1.6" PW or less), so not expecting much in the way
of rain chances outside of the coastal/marine zones. Limited cloud
cover promotes above-normal high temperatures for early October,
with readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Overnight
lows range from upper 60s to near 70 degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Attention will be on the Tropics during the long-term period. As of
2AM ET, the National Hurricane Center maintains a medium (50%)
chance of tropical development somewhere between the NW Caribbean
and Central Gulf over the next 7 days. The system of interest is
currently a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean.
Models are in generally good agreement on this feature interacting
with the Central American Gyre and possibly consolidating. The
evolution thereafter becomes nebulous, but trends show a generally
slow drift to the Gulf coast. Regardless of development, folks
should monitor this system`s progress, while expecting an uptick in
rain chances as associated moisture overspreads parts of the region
beginning late this week.

High temperatures drop from mid/upper 80s on Thursday, to widespread
low 80s (isolated upper 70s) through the weekend. Upper 60s to low
70s will be common for overnight/morning lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period, with the
possibility of MVFR or IFR conditions along the I-75 corridor
down to KVLD. KTLH has the possibility of seeing lower vis and
perhaps cigs as well; however, confidence is higher in southwest
GA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Light winds and low seas are forecast through mid-week with chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds then increase out of the
east as an area of low pressure moves into the Central Gulf from the
Western Caribbean. This system has a medium or 50 percent chance of
tropical development over the next 7 days as outlined by the
National Hurricane Center as of 2AM Eastern Time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Dry weather is expected through midweek, with rain chances
increasing there afternoon. Given the recent wet rains, the only
fire weather concerns will be dispersions. It is possible we see
high dispersions this afternoon across portions of SW GA and SE AL,
with low dispersions possible on Tue afternoon for the FL Big Bend
and southern most counties in GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Numerous rivers continue to be in flood or action stage in the wake
of Helene. The Ochlockonee River - Concord and Little River - Hahira
are notably experiencing moderate flooding while several between the
Ochlockonee, Flint, Apalachicola, and Withlacoochee basins are
dealing with minor flooding. The Withlacoochee River - Quitman is
forecast to crest in moderate flood stage Tuesday evening. Last
night`s forecast updates prompted the cancellation of Flood Warnings
for Apalachicola River - Woodruff L&D and Aucilla River - Lamont.

Looking ahead at rainfall, light amounts are forecast over the
next several days outside of the immediate coast and SE FL Big
Bend. Precipitation potential increases late this week as tropical
moisture arrives from the Gulf.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  71  86  69 /  10  10  10  10
Panama City   87  73  85  71 /   0  10  10  10
Dothan        87  69  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        87  69  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      90  71  87  67 /  10   0  10  10
Cross City    89  74  89  70 /  30  10  40  20
Apalachicola  85  74  82  71 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...IG3