578
FXUS62 KTAE 061046
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Another windy afternoon is expected as a strong pressure gradient
persists ahead of an approaching cold front. Occasional gusts to 30
mph are possible this afternoon, mostly across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will be in
place at sunrise but with heating of the day, we`ll likely begin to
see some larger breaks in the cloud cover, especially across inland
zones and away from a region of stronger low-level moisture
advection across the Florida Panhandle. This should allow high
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s across southwest Georgia
and the southeast Florida Big Bend. As the cold front creeps
eastward this evening, heating of the day and increasing moisture
could spur the development of showers and possibly a few storms
across our Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia
counties. Given the broad area of 30/40 knots of shear thanks to
elevated southwesterly flow aloft, a strong/severe storm can`t be
ruled out this afternoon. These would bring the potential for a
damaging wind gust and possibly a brief tornado where any areas of
favorable low-level shear can develop.

Any activity this afternoon that develops should wane and/or move
off to the northeast this evening and a brief break in activity is
likely until greater coverage of showers and storms moves in for the
overnight hours. While a severe threat can`t be ruled out with
these, decreasing instability will likely take the edge off any
severe threat. Much of the activity for the overnight hours will be
along and west of the Apalachicola/Flint rivers with activity only
pushing east of these areas after daybreak Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The cold front continues to slowly make its way through the area
during the day Monday. The leading line of thunderstorms is
expected to re-intensify over south central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend late morning into the afternoon as instability
increases again. This will be especially true if enough sunshine
breaks through for some daytime heating. Deep-layer shear is
expected to abundant, around 40-50 kt. Hodographs, while not
large, are curved sufficiently to yield some rotating storms.
Additionally, there`s some mid-level dry air that shows up in
forecast soundings, which may help enhance the wind threat. Thus,
damaging winds and brief tornadoes will continue to be the primary
threats during the day Monday into Monday evening. The Storm
Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather
(level 2 of 5) for the Florida Big Bend and south Georgia on
Monday.

Even behind the front, showers and embedded rumbles of thunder
will continue through a good part of the day thanks to the
positively-tilted shortwave lagging well behind, generating extra
lift. With the slow eastward progress of showers and storms, there
could be localized flood concerns on Monday as well.

Temperatures Monday will be tricky. There may be enough daytime
heating in the Florida Big Bend and south Georgia to get into the
mid 70s to near 80 before storms arrive. However, as the front
passes, temperatures will fall slowly back into the 60s and 50s.
Lows will fall back into the mid 40s to lower 50s for Monday
night.

Sunshine returns Tuesday with cool air advection holding strong.
Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the low
to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Large-scale troughing continues over the eastern US through the
end of the week. Another shortwave dives into the southeast on
Friday, but moisture return looks pretty limited with PWATs only
around 0.8-1.0 inches. Thus, at most only looking at a slight
chance of showers Friday afternoon over the eastern parts of the
area. Otherwise, temperatures will be on a moderating trend
through the end of the week with highs returning to near 80 and
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs are present this morning across
ECP/DHN/TLH with VFR/MVFR conditions occurring further east at
ABY/VLD. Cigs will lift rapidly to VFR by 16-18z with the
exception of ECP where MVFR cigs likely prevail much of the day.
Southerly winds increase by late morning around 15-20 kts with
gusts 25-30 kts likely by 18z, especially at DHN/ECP. Later this
afternoon VCTS could affect terminals of DHN/ABY but did not
warrant mention in the TAF at these times due to lower confidence.
Late in the TAF period a cold front will slowly approach bringing
widespread showers along with widespread pre-frontal IFR
conditions tonight at all terminal sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Given yet another day of sea breeze enhancement and stronger wind
potential, have issued another Small Craft Advisory for the St.
Andrews Bay system for late this morning through the afternoon.
There`s some uncertainty in the need for a Small Craft Advisory
tonight, but we may need another one Monday afternoon as guidance
suggests winds will increase behind the front.

From CWF Synopsis: Fresh to strong southerly breezes continue
over waters today due to the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure to the east and a cold front to our northwest. Gusts of
25-30 kt are likely this afternoon. The cold front enters our
region tonight and clears the area by Monday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely with the front, some of which may be
strong to severe. Borderline advisory level conditions are
expected ahead of the front tonight, but we should see another
bout of advisory- level northwesterly winds behind the front
Monday afternoon. Seas will remain around 4 to 7 feet. Winds and
seas finally begin to subside Tuesday night with light to moderate
breezes through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Increasing moisture will keep conditions cloudy and humidities
higher across our Florida Panhandle counties while further inland,
better mixing and more sunshine should allow slightly drier and
warmer conditions. Additionally, due to better mixing, our inland
zones should see much higher dispersions. Aside from high
dispersions the only fire weather concerns will be the breezy
conditions and possibly a few isolated strong storms (across
Alabama) this afternoon. Peak gusts up to 30 mph are possible across
our western zones along and west of the Apalachicola/Flint river
basins. A cold front and increasing rain chances approaches tonight
into Monday. Widespread wetting rains are very likely with much of
the area receiving at least 0.50 to 1.0 inch of rain (lower amounts
across southeast Florida Big Bend). Localized amounts of up to 3 or
4 inches can`t be ruled out across southeast Alabama and into
portions of the Florida Panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

This is a bit of a tricky hydrologic setup as much depends on
where the axis of heaviest rain falls. The current most likely
forecast has that axis just to our northwest from south central
Alabama into west central Georgia. This puts our southeast
Alabama counties right on the fringe with most likely totals
around 1.5 to 3 inches. However, some of the hi-res guidance has
been trending slightly southward, clipping areas from Coffee
County to Randolph County with higher totals. If this happens,
then some places could see upwards of 3 to 6 inches of rain. Given
the uncertainty, there`s not enough confidence to issue any Flood
Watches at this point. If model trends shift southward, then that
may need to be considered. The Weather Prediction Center has these
areas in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for at
least a 15% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance. Current
1-hour flash flood guidance is 2.5-3 inches, and 3-hour flash
flood guidance is 3-4 inches.

Of course, this also has impacts on our rivers, particularly the
headwaters sites as well as the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers.
With the heaviest rain expected to be just to our north currently,
this could impact the Pea River at Ariton and the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Preston. The NAEFS guidance, which has been farther
north, only suggests action stage, but the HEFS guidance gives
low chances of reaching minor flood stage. Additionally, if heavy
rain fall across west central and northern Georgia, then that
routed flow will eventually make it into the ACF system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  69  73  50 /  10  30 100  50
Panama City   80  66  70  50 /  20  60 100  20
Dothan        84  62  65  45 /  40  70 100  20
Albany        86  65  70  47 /  20  50 100  40
Valdosta      88  70  77  50 /   0  10  90  80
Cross City    85  69  80  53 /   0   0  70  90
Apalachicola  77  69  73  52 /   0  40 100  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108-112.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for GMZ735.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ751-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Young