847
FXUS62 KTAE 050234
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
934 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Southern stream impulse embedded within the subtropical jet is
continuing to approach the region with an area of light to
occasionally moderate rain occurring across the Central Gulf Coast
States. This feature is a little out of phase with the northern
stream shortwave and as a result, limited forcing for ascent
along the Gulf Coast is keeping the overall coverage and intensity
of the rain low. Additionally, as the area of rain moves further
eastward, it will encounter a somewhat drier airmass, so it will
take some time for our local airmass, particularly over our
eastern counties to moisten up.

One big thing of note is that the global guidance and the near
term CAM guidance is a little slower than observed trends on
radar, so adjusted the overnight and daytime PoPs tomorrow to
account for a slightly earlier arrival of rain. As the upstream
cold front approaches behind the departing southern stream
impulse, lift will diminish quickly and drier air will return by
Thursday evening. Also of note is that temperatures tonight will
likely reach their minimum values around 04-06z in our eastern
counties and have likely already done so in the western counties
as cloud cover is on the increase, so after 06z, temperatures
should gradually rise overnight and this is accounted for in the
latest grid package. As noted on the previous shift, extensive
cloud cover on Thursday could keep MaxT values a little lower than
some of the guidance suggests.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Another cold front will move through the forecast area on Thursday
but ahead of it, widespread light rain will begin to move in to our
western forecast zones across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle
after midnight. These showers will spread south and east through
daybreak and last into the early morning hours of Thursday before
drier and cooler conditions begin to move in behind the front. Main
forecast challenges for tomorrow mostly revolve around temperatures
as cloudy conditions could stick around through much of the
afternoon. This would keep temperatures possibly a few degrees lower
than current forecasts. No severe weather is expected with this
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

A cold front will continue to push southeast toward
our waters with it fully passing through the region Friday
afternoon. For most of Thursday night, rain chances will notably
decrease inland and be focused over our waters. Following frontal
passage, northerly flow will fill into the region with yet another
cold snap appearing likely across the tri state area. Thursday night
will feature overnight lows near or below freezing everywhere in the
forecast area with the exception of our immediate coastal counties
and the FL Big Bend. Following this, daytime highs will remain quite
low with temperatures only rebounding into the 50s, with some highs
perhaps remaining confined in the upper 40s across our northernmost
SE AL and SW GA counties. Friday night will feature the coldest
temperatures as a result of the aforementioned cold front with the
entire tri state area seeing just above freezing temperatures with
the exception of our immediate coastline. Areas across SW GA may see
their overnight lows drop into the mid 20s which would warrant
another freeze warning with a hard freeze headline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Surface high pressure will gradually build back in following the
passage of the cold front, gradually sliding east with time. This
will clock surface winds from northerly to southeasterly by Monday
resulting in a gradual warming trend through the duration of the
long term bringing daytime highs back into the 70s by Monday. As
we draw closer toward the end of the period, a cutoff upper low
meandering over the desert Southwest will phase in with the mean
flow becoming a shortwave upper trough and move east. In response,
a surface low will form over the central plains and will slide
northeast toward the Great Lakes with its attendant cold front
extending down to our area. As of now, severe potential appears
low as mass response appears quite lackluster coupled with better
kinematics outrunning the cold front. However, heavy rain appears
possible with this system and will be worth watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Through this evening, a dry and stable air mass will continue,
allowing nothing more than high cirrus clouds.

A low pressure wave along the Texas coast will move east over the
next 24 hours. In advance of it, deeper moisture and moderate
stratiform rain are spreading east across Louisiana into
Mississippi. This rain will continue to spread eastward, reaching
DHN and ECP as light rain overnight, then continuing east on
Thursday morning. Cigs will gradually come down as the air mass
moistens. The TAFS generally reflect cigs in the 010-015 range on
Thursday morning, but a brief time of cigs below 010 is possible.

In the afternoon, a cold front will sweep in from the north. A
brief hour or two of post-frontal stratus is possible, with cigs
briefly into the 010-015 range. However, the arrival of drier
continental air will cause cigs to start lifting across our
northern and western terminals later on Thursday afternoon, as the
light rain ends from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Winds will be predominately out of the southwest tomorrow
preceding the arrival of a cold front. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms appear possible tomorrow with gusty and erratic winds
near and within these storms. Following the passage of the cold
front, winds will clock to northerly early Friday morning and are
expected to reach cautionary levels. A small craft advisory may be
possible for waters west of Apalachicola, though it remains somewhat
uncertain at this time. Winds and seas are expected to gradually
decrease into the weekend before another increase with winds and
seas are expected come Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

A front will move through the region on Thursday bringing cloudy and
moist conditions and lower fire weather concerns. Fire weather
concerns should remain on the lower side for Friday, but areas that
miss out on any wetting rains with this front could see localized
increases in fire concerns on Friday as relative humidity drops to
around 25 to 35%. Otherwise no significant fire concerns are
anticipated into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Rainfall amounts will be fairly light and occur mostly west of the
Flint and Apalachicola rivers tonight into Thursday night. A
period of dry weather will exist after this system through the
weekend before the next weather system affects our region next
Monday and Tuesday (Dec 9-10). Differences remain in the solutions
of the GFS and Euro and timing and intensity of features and
corresponding rainfall. At this stage, the NBM and grand ensemble
probs for 1 inch+ 24 hr rainfall is roughly 20-40 percent during
this time frame with the higher end of the probs along and
northwest of a Panama City to Albany line.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   39  65  36  54 /  30  40  10   0
Panama City   50  66  37  56 /  70  70  10   0
Dothan        46  59  30  52 /  60  60  10   0
Albany        40  59  30  52 /  20  30  10   0
Valdosta      37  66  35  55 /  10  20  10   0
Cross City    38  71  43  59 /  10  20  10   0
Apalachicola  47  70  40  57 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godsey
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Worster