198
FXUS62 KTAE 301443
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1043 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Slightly lowered PoP`s for portions of out SE AL and SW GA
counties as the higher probabilities for more widespread
precipitation today lie within our FL counties, particularly in
the Big Bend.

Some weak isolated showers are currently forming across our CWA as
better instability continues to build over the region.
Mesoanalysis shows PWAT`s ranging from 2-2.4" and weak flow aloft,
supportive of the previous forecast indicating that another round
of nuisance / localized flash flooding may be possible this
afternoon.

Temperatures are also on track to flirt with heat advisory
criteria (heat indices ranging from 108-112). A few observation
sites across our FL counties have already broken into the low
100s. Heat advisory criteria may be met, though it is expected to
be brief and perhaps less than an hour given storms keeping
temperatures cooler.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper level high pressure continues to saunter its way in from the
west, while a moist airmass remains in place. This will lead to yet
another day of scattered to widespread popcorn thunderstorms. PWATs
remain on track to vary from 2.2-2.5" and the wind shear and
steering flow isn`t too impressive. This could lead to another day
of heavy rainfall with localized nuisance or flash flooding being
possible.

Outside of the storms, we`ll have another hot and muggy day in store.
Opted to blend temperatures a few degrees down based on MOS
guidance, with highs peaking in the low to mid 90s. Heat Index
Values will slowly climb through the day and range from 100-111
degrees. Opted to not issue a Heat Advisory given the small time
frame it is expected to occur, which overlaps with ongoing
convection. The uncertainty remains high on whether or not
temperatures will be realized because of this due to rain cooled air
and anvil debris. One can always practice heat safety in the summer
by wearing light clothes, drinking plenty of water, and limiting
time outside if possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mid and upper level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region will
lead to an anticyclonic wave breaking episode across the eastern
conus Monday. This will lead to a digging trough through the Mid-
Atlantic states on Monday. This will lead to a subsequent frontal
boundary pushing southeast through the deep south during the day
on Monday. With deep tropical moisture remaining in place across
the region Monday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with the highest chances remaining across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend where seabreeze interactions will likely
take place. The frontal boundary looks to usher enough dry air
through the mid levels that DCAPE values will be in the 800-1000
J/Kg range. This has prompted a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
much of the area both Monday and Tuesday from SPC. The greatest
impacts from these storms will be strong to severe winds of 60 mph
or greater. Overall, high temperatures will reach the low to mid
90s on Monday and Tuesday, and lows will generally remain in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper level ridging is expected to slide east once again from the
ArkLaTex region towards the deep south by Wednesday in the wake of
the frontal passage on Monday and Tuesday. The upper level ridging
pattern will lead to subsidence areawide, which will limit the
overall rain chances across the region; however, it looks like the
dry air that was forecast to push into the region from the
northeast by Thursday will remain just east of the region. This
will likely keep 2-2.25 inch PWATs in place over the region, and
inevitably lead to widespread showers and thunderstorm
development through the end of the period. High temperatures look
to creep back up into the upper 90s by the end of the work week as
the aforementioned upper level ridge settles over the deep south.
Lows will generally remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Well, most of the TAF sites behaved this morning with KTLH being
the one site that went from VFR to LIFR for a couple of hours. The
latest METARs have been trending to MVFR, with VFR expected
shortly after 12 or 13Z. Then, it will be the game of where and
when will storms develop. Confidence was not high enough to tweak
much of the precip forecast, so opted to keep most sites steady,
perhaps nudging by an hour or two for some. Will need to add
details in for the 18Z TAFs, like possible TEMPOs for reduced vis
and cig with stronger showers or storms. Overnight guidance was
not thrilled with timing, but did hint and some lowering cigs
after 6Z tonight at KABY and KVLD. Added some lower cig, but not
enough to bring them to any categorical change at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Wave periods notably increased through the overnight hours via
southerly swells with an uptick in seas between 3-4 feet.
Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet
will prevail through the remainder of the weekend until a weak
frontal boundary pushes into the Gulf late Monday and winds become
light and variable in its wake. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will
predominantly be attributed to the tropical disturbance in the
southern Gulf of Mexico that is currently entering the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the
weekend and early next week with activity generally greatest in
the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze
circulation is at its peak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Another day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast,
with gusty and erratic winds, heavy down pours, and frequent
lightning all being possible. Prior to that though, temperatures
will rise into the low to mid 90s. Given the moist airmass in place,
heat index values will sore to about 100 to 110 degrees for perhaps
a few hours; however, this could thwarted if storms develop early
enough. A similar story for high temperatures and heat index values
looks like on Monday as well. No fire weather concerns are forecast
as dispersions are expected to be fair to generally good area wide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Widespread forecast rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are expected
over the next 5 days, with much of this rainfall expected on
Sunday and Monday. This is primarily due to deep tropical
moisture remaining in place over the region through the middle of
next week. PWATs will generally remain around 2-2.25 inches, which
will lead to extremely efficient warm rain processes in developing
convective structures during the afternoon and evenings the next
several days. Recent HREF and ECAM guidance has very high
probabilities of 5 inches of rain or greater for portions of the
Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia for Sunday. While these are high
values, they will likely remain very localized, and a similar
scenario could develop that occurred on Saturday across the
region, where extremely slow moving thunderstorms produce 3-6
inches of rain in a 1-2 hour window. This will likely lead to
localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban
environments due to the aforementioned extremely efficient rain
processes and high rainfall rates expected. Given the convective
nature of the rainfall, it will be too difficult to pinpoint exact
locations that will receive these higher end rainfall totals to
be able to issue a flash flood watch at this time. Overall, these
higher totals in the 3-6 inch range are expected to remain
localized in nature.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  76  92  76 /  60  60  90  30
Panama City   91  78  92  77 /  60  50  60  30
Dothan        92  76  95  75 /  50  40  50  30
Albany        94  76  95  74 /  60  40  70  40
Valdosta      94  76  93  75 /  60  60 100  50
Cross City    93  75  92  75 /  70  50  50  30
Apalachicola  90  79  88  79 /  70  70  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Bunker