966
FXUS62 KTAE 170134
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
934 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

The forecast is on track with no changes made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

A ridge of high pressure will begin to flatten out tonight,
transitioning us to into more zonal flow pattern as a weak shortwave
passes to our north. This will bring a slight chance for some
showers tomorrow afternoon over our northern most counties. The rest
of us can still expect another hot sunny day with highs around the
mid 90s.

Tonight, there is the chance for some patchy fog in areas where the
winds drop off, with lows staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening will gradually
diminish in coverage through the overnight hours and into Sunday
morning with loss of daytime heating. A few showers could stick
around overnight given the frontal boundary and weak support
aloft into Sunday morning. With a flattening ridge, another
approaching shortwave trough, and the residual frontal boundary,
another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms is
possible on Sunday afternoon. Given appreciable shear, any storms
that can become strong do have a low-end chance to be severe. Main
concerns would be a hail and damaging wind threat. The best rain
chances will remained confined to the very northern portions of
the forecast area across southeast Alabama and east- northeast
towards Albany and points north.

As for temperatures, no relief is expected with afternoon highs
still well into the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Guidance is in good agreement on a hot and mostly dry pattern
continuing through much of the upcoming week. The brief rain
chances that occurred over the weekend quickly disappear out of
the forecast as upper level ridging redevelops on Monday and
Tuesday. This will allow high temperatures to easily hit the mid
90s most afternoons until Wednesday or Thursday when another
frontal system moves in. This front should give most of the area a
chance at scattered thunderstorms, but with the progressive
nature of the pattern and no significant rainfall amounts, relief
from the heat appears brief and short lived.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions continue a while longer this evening before MVFR to
IFR ceilings return later tonight into Saturday morning. Ceilings
begin to lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions taking over by
late morning and continuing through the rest of the TAF period.
Light to moderate southwesterly to westerly winds are anticipated
through the TAF period with a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern
Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for
the next several days. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet each day
with no significant marine impacts anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High dispersions are expected across most inland areas over the next
couple of days thanks to southwesterly transport winds around 10-20
mph and high mixing heights near 5,000 feet each afternoon.
Closer to the coast, dispersions will still be good each day. The
main concern will be the heat with temperatures in the mid-90s
during the afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to near
100. A few isolated storms are possible Saturday and Sunday
afternoons, mainly north of a line from Dothan to Albany.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

No hydrological concerns will are expected through the next 7 to
10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   73  85  72  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
Albany        70  94  70  94 /   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      69  96  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    66  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs