292
FXUS62 KTAE 060202
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1002 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New UPDATE, HYDROLOGY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The forecast is in good shape, so no forecast updates are
forthcoming. See the hydro section for some additional thoughts.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

A very moist air mass remains in place through Wednesday with a
stalled frontal boundary across the region. The main concern will
continue to be excessive rainfall, particularly over portions of
our Southwest GA and Southeast AL counties during the afternoon
and evening hours. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended
through Wednesday evening. Flash Flooding is a concern given it
will only take a couple inches of rain in a short period of time.
Some thunderstorms may also result in gusty winds to 40 mph this
evening and again on Thursday. With the aforementioned moist air
mass and frontal boundary, patchy fog is likely again Wednesday
morning, especially in portions of Southwest GA and Southeast AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

By Friday, low to mid-level flow becomes more easterly as the
frontal boundary moves south of the region and a high pressure
wedges to the lee of the Appalachians. The flow veers around
to the southeast this weekend, while a tropical wave crosses
the FL peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into
early next week. This feature is separate from the disturbance
off the Southeast US Coast, which has a 40% chance of developing
into a cyclone over the next 7 days, and is not expected to
impact our region. PoPs through the period will be at or above
normal, highest in the FL counties in the seabreeze zone. High
temperatures will be near or below seasonal levels for a change.

&&


.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Activity continues to wind down with DHN and TLH experiencing the
last of the showers and storms this evening. After 06Z, restrictions
to LIFR in at DHN and IFR at ABY in fog/low cigs, then a gradually lift
to MVFR cigs by late morning. For VLD, brief MVFR in fog around
sunrise and MVFR cigs at ECP with VCSH tomorrow morning. Late
tomorrow morning and afternoon we`ll see a reduced activity across
the region, when compared to the last few days. Shower and storm
activity is expected to mostly impact ECP and TLH tomorrow, with
low cigs remaining in place across DHN and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

A stalled front will remain over the Gulf waters or just inland
before moving south of the waters by Thursday. There will be
shower and thunderstorm chances each day, with the potential
for briefly higher winds and seas, along with waterspouts just
offshore possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Wet pattern continues through the forecast period with a
stalled front across the region, with periods of showers
and thunderstorms focused during afternoon and evenings.
Main concern will be pockets of persistent low dispersion
through the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday,
as well as any erratic and gusty winds with thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

A Flood Watch continues for much of southwest Georgia and parts of
southeast Alabama. There may be opportunities to trim a few
counties from the watch overnight, perhaps the Alabama portion,
but am wanting holding off for now until the current round of rain
is done.

Forecast rainfall amounts on Wednesday are not uncommonly heavy
by our usual summer standards, but flash flood guidance is running
low in places that could very well get a quick 2 to 3 inches of
rain on Wednesday, especially along the U.S. 82 corridor .

Heavy rain in recent days has caused or is causing notable rises
on most rivers, but they are all expected to remain within their
banks and not flood. Action stage is expected or occurring on the
Saint Marks, Sopchoppy, Kinchafoonee, Flint, and now Spring Creek.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  90  74  88 /  30  60  50  70
Panama City   77  89  75  88 /  50  60  40  60
Dothan        72  87  72  85 /  60  70  50  50
Albany        72  87  72  85 /  60  60  50  60
Valdosta      73  92  73  90 /  40  60  50  60
Cross City    74  94  74  93 /  20  40  30  70
Apalachicola  79  89  77  88 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     FLZ114.

GA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for GAZ120>131-142>146.

AL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ALZ067>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Haner