621
FXUS62 KTAE 060104
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
904 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

No forecast updates appear necessary at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A stationary boundary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will
continue to be the focal point for showers, perhaps a thunderstorm
or two, through much of the period. Precipitable water values
(PWATs) continue to remain around 2", or above the 90th percentile
for early October; this means that any showers that are able to
develop could produce locally heavy rain. Fortunately, instability
is fairly limited, so thunderstorm coverage should be quite sparse
as well.

Temperatures tonight will remain well above normal with lows in the
lower to middle 70s. Daytime highs should top out in the lower to
middle 80s due to abundant cloud cover expected most of the day
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The stationary boundary is forecast to ebb south Sunday night into
Monday, allowing drier air to filter in from the north. This pushes
the best opportunities for rain into the southeastern Florida Big
Bend, really only Dixie County, during the day on Monday. A second
cold front nears the region late Monday night, with noticeably
cooler temperatures back behind it, as discussed later in the
long term forecast. Otherwise, that drier air will help push
overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night into the middle 60s
to near 70. Daytime highs will generally run in the middle 80s
across the region Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has started advisories on
Tropical Storm Milton. The forecast is for it to slowly move
north-northeast to northeast Sunday before turning more northeast
to east-northeast and picking up speed Monday into mid-week.
While the official track is for a landfall near Tampa sometime on
Wednesday, the forecast cone does extend into the southeastern
Florida Big Bend, so we will continue to monitor Milton`s
progression over the coming days. As of now, the primary impacts
we`re concerned about locally are rougher marine conditions by
mid-week along with worsening beach and surf conditions. Rain
chances also increase along the southeast Florida Big Bend as
Milton nears. Residents should continue to monitor the progress of
Tropical Storm Milton on hurricanes.gov, especially those who are
still recovering from Helene.

As mentioned in the short term, a cold front will be plunging south
Tuesday, bringing much drier air into the region for the second half
of the week. This will shut off rain chances and bring temperatures
down into the 50s and 60s at night and the 70s for highs during the
day. It`s also worth mentioning that the pressure gradient between
Milton in the Gulf and the surface high to the north could be strong
enough to warrant a Wind Advisory for parts of the area by mid-week,
especially for areas that are still recovering from Helene.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Currently all sites are VFR with light showers mostly confined to
the Gulf waters. Overnight, cigs are expected to fall to MVFR and
some IFR Sunday, especially TLH/VLD. Patchy light showers will
continue Sunday with the better confidence from ECP-TLH-VLD with
lower confidence DHN-ABY. Should be mainly showers as instability
is limited. Cigs appear to improve Sunday afternoon and possibly
VFR at DHN-ABY tho not confident enough to put in TAFs attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

East to northeast winds continue the next several days. Cautionary
conditions are expected tonight over the western waters. Advisory
level conditions are possible as early as Sunday afternoon and
certainly by Sunday night as the pressure gradient tightens over the
region. Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and is forecast to head east-northeast to northeast through
the weekend and into the middle of the week. Winds and seas are
forecast to increase even more by mid-week as Milton passes south of
the marine area. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each
day until a cold front clears the area mid to late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The main fire weather concern will be the possibility of pockets
elevated to high dispersions for SW GA, SE AL, and the W FL
Panhandle and Big Bend counties tomorrow and Tue. Otherwise, there
are no fire weather concerns given the recent rains and moist fuels.
Showers are possible today, with drier conditions expected into
early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Minor flooding continues along the lower Withlacoochee at Quitman
and Pinetta. The Withlacoochee at Quitman should fall below flood
stage tonight while the flood wave crests later today. Over the next
several days, the flood waves from the Withlacoochee and the Alapaha
will move into the upper Suwannee and progress downstream through
much of next week. Minor flooding is currently forecast along the
middle Suwannee from Luraville downstream, but won`t likely happen
until the middle of the week. Rainfall totals will generally be
light enough to avoid any additional river flood concerns.

Regarding Tropical Storm Milton, heavy rainfall potential in the
southeast Big Bend will hinge on track and evolution. For now, the
Weather Prediction Center has outlined the southeast Big Bend in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Tuesday and
Wednesday. We`ll have to continue to monitor trends in rainfall
placement over the next several days to get a better idea on any
flash flood or heavy rain potential.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  78  68  84 /  40  40   0   0
Panama City   72  82  70  85 /  40  40   0   0
Dothan        71  79  66  85 /  40  40   0   0
Albany        71  80  65  85 /  40  50   0   0
Valdosta      71  78  67  84 /  50  50   0   0
Cross City    73  81  71  83 /  40  60  10  20
Apalachicola  74  79  71  82 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young