933
FXUS62 KTAE 241411
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1011 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Morning
satellite depicts the main parent, upper trough axis near the TN
with a shortwave ripple around the Tri-State border. Attendant to
these features is a stagnant boundary analyzed along the NE Gulf
Coast into the Suwannee Valley per the 12Z surface analysis. This
front will be one of a couple foci for afternoon
showers/thunderstorms, albeit reduced in coverage. Other forcing
mechanisms will be the seabreeze and to a lesser extent, a
pre-(reinforcing)frontal trough from the MS Valley.

Derived Precipitable Water shows a sharp NW-to-SE gradient
ranging from ~1.6" across the Wiregrass to ~2.2" in the Eastern FL
Big Bend. As such, convection is most favored along and S/SE of
the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorms will be capable of locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. It would not be
surprising if a couple of storms pack a bit of a punch, given that
the 12Z sounding at KTBW & KJAX highlight deep-layer shear in the
15-20-kt range.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The quasi-stationary front that has been the focus of our active
weather the last several days will remain in place for one more
day. The front will slip offshore this morning before returning
northward with the afternoon sea breeze. Thus, for much of this
morning, showers and storms will be focused over the waters, maybe
inching up to Apalachicola and Cross City. By this afternoon, the
front and sea breeze will make some inland progress, but will
stop somewhere near I-10. Along and south of the front, PWATs will
still be around 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Slightly drier air will filter
in north of the front with PWATs down to around 1.5 inches.

Higher rain chances will be confined mainly to the Florida
counties today, but coverage will be a bit lower than past days
(around 40- 60%). Farther north, some isolated showers and storms
are possible, but rain chances are only around 20-30%. Some
locally heavy rain is possible in the Florida counties today, with
totals locally as high as 2-4 inches. This would be enough to
cause some nuisance type flooding. Most showers and storms over
land will end within a couple hours after sunset.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows
tonight will be in the lower half of the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The stationary boundary that has provided us with plentiful rain
over the past few days will finally begin completing its passage
through the region as a stronger cold front takes over. The cold
front will be along the leading edge of a 1025mb surface high from
the Canadian border. Behind the front, much drier air is expected
to filter in. PWATs Monday afternoon will range from 1-1.5
inches, and most of the precipitation will remain over the marine
zones. Tuesday afternoon PWATs will be around 0.5-1 inch, which is
less than the 10th percentile for this time of year. It will feel
noticeably drier with dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s.
However, temperatures will still be warm with highs in the upper
80s/low 90s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s.

So, as the front pushes through on Monday, PoPs will be 30% and
less for counties along and north of I-10. The coastal regions may
have a few showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon due to
seabreeze convection ahead of another cold front. A reinforcing
cold front will be completing its passage through Tuesday night,
lowering PoPs to 10% and less by the end of the Short Term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The pattern established in the short term will hold until mid-
late week. The surface high will lift north, allowing for moisture
return with easterly flow as we approach the weekend. PoPs return
in a more diurnal fashion with afternoon chances around 30-50
percent for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures for the long term
will be in the upper 80s with morning lows in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Generally MVFR to IFR cigs continue this morning at the terminals,
though some patches of clear skies or LIFR cigs are intermingled.
Some patchy fog has been observed too, though generally its been
MVFR vsbys. Over the next several hours, cigs/vsbys will return to
VFR. Scattered TSRA is possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
near ECP, TLH, and VLD. Hi-res guidance suggests coverage will be
lower, so have moved to PROB30s for those terminals, and kept DHN
and ABY dry for today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

AM Observations:

PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - Sustained ENE winds 4 kts.

PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - Sustained NE winds 8-9
kts.

WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - Sustained WNW winds near 10 kts, 2-3-ft
seas, and a dominant period of 5 seconds.

CWF Synopsis: A stationary boundary will remain in the region
through Monday, keeping numerous showers/thunderstorms over the
waters until then. Prior to the front`s arrival, seas will be
around 1-2 feet with generally southwesterly/westerly winds of 10
kts. The first front will arrive during the morning hours on
Monday, shifting the winds northerly, and a reinforcing cold front
on Tuesday will strengthen the winds to Cautionary levels from
the north- northeast. Seas will increase a little to 1-3 feet and
winds will slowly become more easterly as we head towards the
weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected once again
today with the highest chances over the Florida zones this
afternoon. Otherwise, dispersions will be poor near the I-75
corridor and fair elsewhere. Transport winds today will be
westerly to northwesterly around 5-10 mph. A cold front clears the
area Monday into Tuesday with lower rain chances in the forecast
as drier air filters in. Dispersions will be good area-wide both
Monday and Tuesday. Transport winds become northerly behind the
front. Min RH values will drop into the 40s Monday and into the
30s on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for
Sunday with the Florida SE Big Bend in a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall. 1-2 more inches could fall with isolated
higher amounts. Local rivers in the area (Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee) have the potential to rise into Action Stage, with
a very low chance of entering into Minor flood stage. Following
Monday`s cold front, rain chances drop to 10% and less as much
drier air filters into the region. Rain chances begin to return
late in the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  72  91  68 /  30  20  30   0
Panama City   91  75  92  71 /  40  20  20  10
Dothan        89  70  90  65 /  20  10  10   0
Albany        87  71  91  65 /  20  20  10   0
Valdosta      88  71  91  67 /  30  20  20   0
Cross City    89  73  91  72 /  60  30  60  10
Apalachicola  88  76  90  73 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Montgomery/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery