887
FXUS62 KTAE 061053
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

There is still quite a moisture gradient across the region today.
Satellite-derived Pwat imagery shows values ranging from near 1.4
inches over Coffee County AL to 2.1 inches over Dixie County FL. As
Tropical Storm Chantal`s circulation exits further way into eastern
North Carolina today, we will lose the low-level northeast flow that
has reinforced the drier air in recent days. In fact, low-level
southwest flow will return to the coast this afternoon, aided at
first by the seabreeze yet starting a longer term trend toward low-
level SW-W flow this week. Flow off the Gulf will start to moisten
the air mass along the Panhandle coast today. The actual seabreeze
front today will still struggle to penetrate as far inland as I-10.
As a result, afternoon convection will mainly be confined south of I-
10. The two most favorable areas for storms will be the seabreeze
rendezvous spot inland of Apalachicola, and the Lower Suwannee/
northern Nature Coast region where the richest moisture resides.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Fairly weak flow aloft with a ridge anchored across the western
Atlantic will lead to fairly routine and diurnally-driven weather
throughout the week. Low-level west to southwesterly flow will
prevail allowing the atmospheric column to moisten throughout the
week. PWATs initially in the 1.5 - 1.8 inch range will increase to 2
- 2.3 inches by Saturday. The sea breeze and it`s associated
convective activity should be able to push further inland with each
passing day as moisture increases. Thursday into Friday a subtle
shortwave moves across eastern CONUS, from the central Plains
towards the Mid-Atlantic. Depending on how amplified this shortwave
becomes we could see it influencing our convective coverage heading
into the end of the work week.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A drier air mass than usual for July will linger over the tri-
state area today. Nonetheless, a few afternoon thunderstorms are
still expected along the seabreeze, which will again struggle to
penetrate very far inland today. For ECP and TLH, there is
question on whether storms will actually get within 10 miles of
the terminals, so have included a low confidence PROB30 group. VLD
is even more questionable yet, and the PROB30 group there is in
for only a short two hours. DHN and ABY will be too dry and lack
adequate lift for thunder. Otherwise, northeast flow this morning
will gradually turn southwesterly over the next 12-18 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Subtropical high pressure will gradually build into the coastal
waters over the next several days as Tropical Storm Chantal moves
inland over the Carolinas. For Sunday, light and variable winds will
become onshore during the afternoon and evening with the seabreeze.
From Monday through Thursday night, expect southwest winds around 10
knots, maximizing near the coast during the afternoon and evenings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Northeast winds will continue over Georgia districts today on the
upstream side of Tropical Storm Chantal, which will make landfall
this morning along the upper South Carolina coast. One last day of
stronger transport winds will support high afternoon dispersion
along and north of the U.S. 82 corridor in Georgia. The air mass
will be drier than usual, and most afternoon thunderstorm activity
will be confined south of the Florida state line. On Monday, low-
level flow will become southwesterly and then strengthen a little on
Tuesday. This turn of the wind will support a moistening of the air
mass, and afternoon thunderstorm coverage will start to increase as
the seabreeze front penetrates further inland.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of the
summer wet season, riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  75  94  75 /  40  20  60   0
Panama City   93  78  91  78 /  30  20  50  10
Dothan        96  74  95  74 /  20  10  40   0
Albany        95  74  96  74 /  20  10  30  10
Valdosta      96  75  96  75 /  20  10  40  10
Cross City    93  74  91  74 /  70  30  50  10
Apalachicola  89  78  89  78 /  40  20  60  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Oliver