394
FXUS62 KTAE 071456
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1056 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Adjusted some of the POPs to better match up with what`s happening
out there this morning with ongoing showers in the Florida Big
Bend into the eastern Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia.
Also tweaked some of the dew points for the rest of the day.
Doing so got us very close to our Heat Advisory criteria (108
degrees) for a few spots in our Florida counties. However, passing
showers *should* be enough to keep most, if not all, locations
from achieving heat indices that high. Still, it`ll be rather
uncomfortable out there with heat indices generally between 100 to
105 for most this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast
is on track for the rest of today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Upper level ridge to our west and southwest will begin to be
suppressed this afternoon and into tonight as a broad US longwave
trough amplifies over the central and eastern US and several
shortwaves progress through this trough. While the strongest of the
upper level flow will remain well to our northwest, we`ll begin to
see increasingly stronger mid-upper level flow in place from the
west. Another warm and unstable afternoon will allow scattered to
widespread shower and thunderstorms to develop through the morning
and afternoon. Similar to the past few days, activity will begin
over marine and coastal zones this morning, like we`re already
seeing at this hour, and spread/develop inland as the Gulf
seabreezes move inland. Coastlines with favorable orientations for
seabreeze/synoptic convergence in westerly flow, like the western
portions of the Apalachee Bay, will see slower inland progression of
the seabreeze and likely an enhancement in activity through the day.
With slightly stronger mid-level flow and somewhat higher DCAPEs
still in place, a few of the stronger more organized clusters of
storms could contain strong wind gusts up to 40 or 50 mph.

While likely not to be an issue through much of the day and evening,
stronger ascent to our north, and the potential
maintenance/development of more organized storms moving east-
southeast from northern Mississippi and  northern Alabama could
bring a low-end chance of severe weather in the overnight hours
should it hold together. Whether this system, called an MCS
(mesoscale convective system), develops is still highly dependent on
what happens upstream but for our residents in southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia, it`s worth monitoring how that complex of storms,
if it even develops, is unfolding later this evening to see what
sort of severe threat is possible later this evening and or
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Active weather is expected with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the northern half of the forecast area.
Forecast soundings indicate higher than average deep layer shear for
June standards with plenty of instability. With at least weak upper
level forcing and a surface boundary slowly moving southward, the
stage is set for a few strong to severe storms and the potential for
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding due to training
convection. The greatest potential for these hazards is across
portions of southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama, although some
activity could move into Florida panhandle and big bend. Activity
could linger well into the nighttime hours as well.

Temperatures are forecast to be very summer-like with lows in the
lower to middle 70s and highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s
with dewpoints in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the remainder of the week, rain chances remain elevated thanks
to an upper level trough over the eastern third of the country
keeping us in a continued muggy environment. PWATs are forecast to
remain in the 1.7" to 2.0" range, or the upper quartile for mid-
June. Scattered to numerous showers and storms remain in the
forecast each day.

Summer-like temperatures will also continue with highs in the lower
to middle 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Patchy areas of MVFR to LIFR ceilings are possible around 10-13z
this morning before conditions quickly return to VFR with
afternoon heating. Light westerly winds and scattered showers and
thunderstorms will affect area terminals from 14-00z this
afternoon bringing occasional MVFR visibilities in heavier
showers/storms. Activity will begin along the coastal areas and
move inland through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A surface high sprawling across the southwestern Atlantic and
eastern Gulf will continue to bring light to moderate southwesterly
winds to our waters through the weekend. Seas will generally run
between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through the weekend along with the potential
for a morning waterspout or two just off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Aside from elevated dispersions, especially across southeast Alabama
and portions of southwest Georgia, fire weather concerns should be
mostly low due to humid conditions and relatively light winds. A
wetter pattern remains in place through the next few days and the
main concerns outside higher dispersions and instability will be
gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Locally heavy rain remains possible within any of the showers or
storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to
2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash
Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban
areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are
forecast to gradually decrease the next few days thanks to daily
rain chances. Isolated flash flooding is a possibility Sunday and
Monday as clusters of thunderstorms could train over the area,
especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of
showers and storms. The best chance of that occurring is across
southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. Fortunately, area rivers
and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more
and more rain falls across the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  74  93  75 /  40  20  70  40
Panama City   88  78  89  77 /  40  20  50  60
Dothan        95  75  92  72 /  40  40  70  60
Albany        94  74  91  72 /  30  40  80  60
Valdosta      93  74  93  74 /  40  20  70  40
Cross City    91  74  91  73 /  30  20  60  30
Apalachicola  86  78  87  77 /  40  20  60  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...DVD