630
FXUS62 KTAE 101121
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
621 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

A low pressure center will track along the northern Gulf Coast
today, crossing the Florida Big Bend region this evening. It will
bring windy conditions to the coast, beach hazards, and rain.
Another cold air mass will move in on Saturday. On Sunday night
and Monday, a low pressure wave will move across the eastern Gulf,
spreading a cold rain north into the region. It will be followed
by a reinforcing cold front on Monday, followed by a dry
reinforcing cold front next Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

An area of low pressure along the central Louisiana coastline will
continue to slide east to east-northeast along the northern Gulf
Coast today into tonight. A warm front extends eastward from the low
currently along or just south of the Alabama and Mississippi Gulf
Coast. Radar shows some very light returns over central Alabama
extending into northern parts of our service area. However, the air
has been too dry for any of this to reach the surface locally. I
believe our window for seeing any wintry precipitation is shrinking.
Our dew points have overperformed through the night with dew points
in the mid-20s to lower 30s and air temperatures in the mid-30s to
lower 40s. While some wet-bulb effect can still occur, cooling and
moistening the lower column of air via evaporation, wet-bulb
temperatures will likely remain at or just above freezing. Still, I
wouldn`t be surprised if there`s a few ice pellets north of a line
from Andalusia, AL to Dawson, GA early this morning, if
precipitation can reach the ground to begin with. But the chances
for this very low, and no impacts are expected.

As the day progresses, rain chances will begin to increase from west
to east as the low pressure system approaches. However, with little
to no instability, chances for thunderstorms are very low to near
zero. Winds will increase this afternoon as the pressure gradient
tightens and the 925mb jet increases to about 35-40 kt. However, the
mixing down potential for these winds will be limited by how far
inland the warm front moves. The highest confidence in stronger
winds is along the coastal areas from Jefferson County eastward,
where a Wind Advisory goes into effect later today. Gusts of 35-45
mph are likely, and there`s a high (>70%) chance of 40 mph gusts
within the Wind Advisory area. Can`t completely rule out some inland
expansion of the advisory if observations support it, though chances
of 40+ mph gusts inland according to the HREF are around 30-40%.

Hi-res guidance suggests that maybe the warm front gets hung up
somewhere in the vicinity of Dothan to Albany to Fitzgerald. As
precip falls into drier air over central Alabama and Georgia, this
may help reinforce the cooler air via evaporative cooling, halting
northward progress of the warm front. This has an impact on
temperatures this afternoon. Thus, leaning on higher-res guidance,
have a gradient of upper 40s to lower 50s in our northernmost
counties to upper 50s to lower 60s to the south.

The widespread steady rain continues into the nighttime hours,
slowly ending from west to east. Cold air advection will arrive late
tonight behind the system with lows in the mid-30s in the Wiregrass
to the lower 50s in the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

In the wake of Friday night`s cold front, cold air advection will
be underway on Saturday. There should also be quite a bit of
post-frontal stratus hanging around through midday Saturday, with
enough lingering moisture near the Suwannee Valley for a slight
chance of showers on Saturday morning, until the moisture becomes
more shallow. Clearing is finally expected later Saturday
afternoon.

Given the cold advection and lingering clouds on Saturday,
temperatures will struggle to rise much, failing to surpass the
40s for most of the region. Some of the newest MOS guidance is
even cooler than the latest official forecast, so there is room to
nudge highs down a little more on Saturday.

Surface high pressure will move across the Southeast States on
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Skies will be mostly clear by
sunset on Saturday evening, so the weakening wind fields will be
favorable for radiational cooling and freezing temperatures for
all but the immediate beaches.

The surface high will reach the coastal Carolinas on Sunday
afternoon, and our low-level flow will become more easterly. We
will still have a cold air mass in place, but sunny skies and an
easing of cold advection will be good enough to boost highs into
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

A large and fast upper jet streak will extend from Oklahoma up the
length of the Ohio Valley on Sunday night and Monday. In the
lift-favored right entrance region, a surface low pressure wave
will develop over the western Gulf on Sunday. The low will track
east across the distant Gulf waters on Sunday night and Monday,
near the southern edge of the cold air dome. In the mid-level warm
advection pattern north of the surface low, a large rain shield
will develop and extend well inland from the northern Gulf Coast.
Since we will still be in the cold air north of the low, this
will be a cold rain, concurrent with temperatures in the upper 30s
to mid 40s. However, it will undoubtedly be too warm to consider
wintry precip.

Once that low pressure wave to the south exits, another cold
surface high from the Central Plains will bridge south across the
tri-state region on Monday night and Tuesday.

Northwest flow aloft should bring another dry reinforcing cold
front around Wednesday, keeping our prolonged spell of below
normal temperatures entrenched through the end of next week. The
8-14 Day outlook from CPC shows odds continuing to favor below
normal temperatures beyond the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Light showers or virga continue near and north of DHN this
morning. An upper-level overcast deck is spreading across the
area, with VFR cigs prevailing. Winds will become more
southeasterly through the day and strengthen to sustained 10-20 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt. Cigs will lower this afternoon to MVFR as
rain begins to move into the area from the west. As low pressure
moves closer, winds become more southerly late this afternoon and
evening with cigs dropping to IFR. As the low traverses the area,
winds will shift quickly out of the west to northwest around 10 kt
overnight. Cigs will remain IFR to low-end MVFR through the night
with rain gradually tapering from NW to SE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

A 1005 mb low is currently moving east along the Louisiana coast.
In advance of the low, an ASCAT satellite pass late Thursday
evening revealed a large area of gale-force southerlies to its
east while it was over the Texas waters, and surface obs now show
gales continuing in advance of the low near the mouth of the
Mississippi River. So we will at least see frequent gale-force
gusts pass across the northeast Gulf waters today and this
evening, as the low continues to move east. Marine conditions will
go downhill quickly through sunrise.

From CWF synopsis...A 1005 mb low center will track east along
the northern Gulf Coast today, passing across the Florida Big Bend
coast this evening. In advance of the low, a northward moving
warm front will support a freshening of southeast and south
breezes, with frequent gale force gusts expected. As the low
pushes east late this evening, a cold front will sweep across the
waters. It will be followed by strong west to northwest breezes
through Saturday morning. Winds will decrease and clock around as
high pressure moves across the Southeast States on Saturday night.
Strong breezes are likely from Sunday night through Tuesday,
while the next low moves across the eastern Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

An area of low pressure will bring a return of wetting rain to the
area late this morning and continuing through tonight. Winds will
increase as the area of low pressure approaches with east to
southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph, highest along the coast.
Otherwise, fair to good dispersions are expected.

Winds will clock around out of the northwest late tonight into
Saturday behind the system with fair dispersions area-wide. The
chances for showers quickly exit the area Saturday morning.
Another disturbance to our south brings another chance for rain late
Sunday to the area. Low dispersions are expected all day Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

No rain-related freshwater flooding is expected for the next 7
days.

Minor coastal flooding is expected during the high tide cycle late
this evening for shorelines at the top end of Apalachee Bay.
Strong southeast to southerly winds will develop today over the
northeast Gulf, with frequent gale force gusts continuing well
into this evening. The onshore push of water will reach its peak
along the Wakulla and Jefferson County coasts at the same time
that there is a normal astronomical high tide late this evening.
Over the last 24 hours, GFS-based storm surge guidance for Saint
Marks has shown peak tidal anomalies ranging from 2.4 to 3.2
feet. When superimposed on a tide table prediction of -0.3 feet
MHHW, this adds up to exceed minor coastal flooding criteria. That
criteria averages about 2 feet MHHW at many coastal sites. High
tide this evening along the Wakulla coast will come between 1030
and 1100 PM EST.

For now, we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Wakulla
and Jefferson County coasts, where confidence is highest.
Depending on how guidance trends later this morning, there is room
to expand the advisory all the way over to the Suwannee River, or
perhaps west into Franklin County. Outside of the advisory area,
the numbers do not add up well enough to issue an advisory with
this much lead time. Nonetheless, it will be something to watch as
we move through today and this evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  42  49  31 /  30 100  20   0
Panama City   62  42  50  34 /  80  90  10   0
Dothan        52  36  45  27 /  90  90  10   0
Albany        51  38  47  26 /  70 100  10   0
Valdosta      60  44  51  29 /  30  90  20   0
Cross City    64  50  58  33 /  10  90  20   0
Apalachicola  62  45  51  36 /  40  90  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 1 AM EST
     /midnight CST/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning to 9
     AM EST /8 AM CST/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114.

     High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for FLZ115.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     FLZ118-127.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for FLZ118-127.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Haner