290
FXUS62 KTAE 131030
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
630 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - Widespread low temperatures are forecast in the 50s for the
   next few mornings.

 - A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

 - Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   although current guidance isn`t favoring meaningful rainfall
   for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry conditions prevail throughout the week as ridging aloft begins
building over the region. An expansive surface high across the Great
Lakes region sends a dry continental polar (cP) air mass south
across eastern CONUS. This will allow our dew points to remain
generally under 60 degrees, leading to pleasant conditions this
week.

By the end of the week the surface high dives south to just offshore
from the southeast US. This will temporarily reestablish southerly
flow over the weekend across the region, leading to some moisture
return. Dew points will climb into the 60s ahead of the next frontal
system on Sunday. The shortwave associated with this frontal feature
will be quickly lifting northeastward, thus the frontal feature is
expected to be weakening as it approaches the region. This will lead
to weak forcing for ascent and low chances for any meaningful
rainfall for the region. Northerly flow and dry air return heading
into next week.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes induced by building surface
high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions over the
next several days. Afternoon seabreezes will prompt an onshore
flow along the nearshore legs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next few days under
persistent north-northeasterly winds. Min RHs are forecast to be in
the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each afternoon.
Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the upcoming week progresses
thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under surface high
pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next week. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   84  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        84  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        83  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  64  82  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver