707
FXUS62 KTAE 010842
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
442 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Oppressive surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s today will
continue to fuel widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across
the Tri-state area. These dewpoints will also lead to Heat Advisory
level apparent temperatures across SE Alabama, the Florida
Panhandle, extreme SW Georgia, and portions of the Florida Big Bend
today. There is some uncertainty on how far east these advisory
level apparent temperatures will extend given the widespread nature
of shower and thunderstorm activity expected today, so much of the I-
75 corridor was left out of any heat advisory products today given
this area has the best chances for seeing the highest cloud cover
and thunderstorm coverage today. This thunderstorm activity and
subsequent cloud cover may quell high heat index values further west;
however, there was enough uncertainty in the timing of these
thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening that it covered the
aforementioned areas.

A slowing frontal boundary currently entering the forecast area
across SW Georgia this morning will continue to slowly trek
southeastward throughout the morning and afternoon hours today. This
will provide a focal point for shower and thunderstorm development
during the afternoon hours as diurnal heating intensifies. There
will be little in the way of inhibition as current cloud cover from
Sunday evenings thunderstorms is expected to quickly burn off
through the morning hours. Much of the area has a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather from SPC for damaging wind gusts
of 60mph or greater. With DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/Kg coupled
with CAPE values in the 3000-4000 J/Kg range during peak heating,
some thunderstorms earlier in the afternoon and evening will be
capable of the aforementioned damaging wind gusts with the strongest
downbursts.

Not only will damaging wind gusts be possible, but the deep tropical
airmass in place over the region with 2-2.25 inch PWATs will
continue to allow for extremely efficient rainfall rates to occur in
thunderstorms today. This combined with previous rainfall over the
last couple of days, as well as training or back building
thunderstorms can quickly lead to flash flooding. This is especially
true across portions of SW Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend where
the frontal boundary is expected to become quasi-stationary today.
Given this threat for heavy rainfall, WPC has issued a slight risk
(level 2 of 4) for portions of SW Georgia and the Florida Big Bend
today.

Overall, expect mid 90s for high temperatures across SE Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle, and low 90s across the Florida Big Bend and
SW Georgia. Lows tonight will generally fall into the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Upper level ridging builds and holds through the short term
period. The frontal boundary from Monday looks to stall out
somewhere along the FL state border while surface high pressure
sweeps over the Great Lakes and into the northeast on Tuesday.
This will bring renewed chances for shower and thunderstorms to
the region, with heavy rain and gusty winds being the primary
threat. Areas that have received heavy rain on Sunday, and today,
Monday may be more susceptible to flooding than others. Highs for
Tuesday remain on track and are forecast to be in the upper 80 and
low 90s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 70s.

Wednesday the front will slowly get worked out of the region as
surface high pressure moves in. Showers and thunderstorms remain
elevated, favoring areas along and south of the FL borderline.
High temperatures trend higher and will rise into the low to mid
90s, with sultry lows in the mid to upper 70s for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Ensembles show upper level ridging holding through much of the
period, with some flattening occuring towards the end. At the
surface, high pressure will dominate the forecast. Precip chances
begin to falter Thursday, with afternoon isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected beyond. With high pressure
comes increasing temperatures. Most days we peak in the mid to
upper 90s, though a few areas could reach 100. Overnight lows
remain toasty and in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the morning today at
all terminals. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to impact ABY, VLD, and TLH during the late morning and continue
through the late evening hours as a front approaches the region
today. DHN and ECP will likely see VCTS for a few hours during the
afternoon hours today. These thunderstorms may bring brief periods
of MVFR to LIFR restrictions before lifting back to VFR
conditions. Overall, expect variable winds at around 5-10 knots
today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Seas will be subsiding today as winds have shifted to the
northwest and west. Eventually winds will be come more variable
this morning before shifting back to a southerly component late in
the day. After that, mainly southerly, though taking a
southeasterly or southwesterly component, are forecast through
much of the week. Seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through the early
portion of the week, with activity generally greatest in the
overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze
circulation is at its peak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

With widespread moisture remaining in place coupled with high PoPs
in the 70-90% range across much of the area the next couple of days,
there are no fire weather concerns. Gusty and erratic winds and
heavy downpours are possible within any of the storms that develop
the next couple of days. Otherwise, temperatures will climb into the
middle 90s with heat indices pushing 108-110 the next couple of
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Florida Big Bend and
portions of southwest Georgia through this evening. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" are possible the next couple of
days, so widespread flooding or river flooding is not expected.
However, abundant moisture combined with a cold front nearing the
region means there is the potential for a few localized areas of
3"+ of rain in a short amount of time. Recent HREF and ECAM
guidance shows non-zero probabilities of 5"+ over the next 24 to
36 hours. This will likely lead to localized flash flooding,
especially in poor drainage and urban environments due to
extremely efficient rain processes and high rainfall rates
expected. Showers and storms expected to begin later this morning
and will last into the evening. The front is expected to linger
Tuesday over the region, which will support addition showers and
thunderstorms. Areas that received heavy bouts of rain Sunday and
Monday may be more prone to flash flooding.


Additional afternoon showers and storms are possible each
afternoon leading up to the 4th of July and may bring the chance
of very localized nuisance flooding underneath any of the stronger
storms.

No river flooding is anticipated for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  76  91  76 /  90  40  80  30
Panama City   91  77  90  77 /  80  40  60  20
Dothan        95  75  90  74 /  60  30  70  20
Albany        93  75  89  73 /  50  50  60  30
Valdosta      90  75  92  75 /  80  60  80  30
Cross City    88  76  92  75 /  80  30  80  30
Apalachicola  89  79  89  79 /  90  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-
     114.

     Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ015>019-026>029-034-115-
     118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ120>126-142>145-155>158.

     Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ143>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Reese/KR