472
FXUS62 KTAE 192003
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
403 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure gradually builds into the region as the flow aloft
becomes increasingly anticyclonic. For the rest of this afternoon
and evening, some decent vertical depth and occasional radar echoes
within the cumulus field east of the Flint River Valley in GA into
the FL Big Bend, where we`ve carried PoPs up to 20 pct. This will
result in sprinkles or the occasional light rain shower and this
is included in the forecast until around sunset. Where there is a
sea-breeze per TLH WSR-88D closer to the Forgotten Coast, cannot
rule out a brief rumble of thunder. Tonight, dry conditions with
patchy fog a good bet, mainly east of the Flint River in GA into
the FL Big Bend and portions of the eastern Panhandle, which is
expected to dissipate by around 9 AM ET/8 AM CT. On Friday, a
partly sunny day with the development of cumulus clouds, with
dry weather expected. The only exception could be closer to the
I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend late in the afternoon
or evening, as a couple of showers may spill over into the area
with the east coast sea-breeze. However, the majority of the
guidance keeps it dry, so this is a low probability. The lack
of moisture and lift supports this, hence the dry forecast.
Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Friday
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging builds in from the west while surface high
pressure settles in. This will lead to quiet and dry weather with
above normal temperatures.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The weather will be on repeat through the first half of the week
as upper level ridging dominates. Chances for precipitation
increase mid week as the upper level ridge may begin to break
down. In addition to that, eyes remain on the tropics. The NHC
continues to highlight a now medium chance (40%) of development in
the northwest Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf. At this time it
is too early to determine any specifics about track, strength,
and impacts as there is high uncertainty within ensembles and
models. Residents and visitors should monitor the forecast for
updates at hurricanes.gov. Now is a good time to review your
hurricane plans and hurricane supply kit.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure gradually builds into region with winds at the TAF
sites shifting from NNW today to NNE on Friday; the exception will
be a sea-breeze working into ECP late this afternoon where winds
will shift to the WSW. Some residual low-level moisture and light
winds on Friday morning may lead to a couple hours of MVFR in fog
at VLD. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in fog at the other
TAF sites, such as TLH, but confidence is low at this time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Favorable boating conditions are expected through Friday, as
winds remain light and variable and seas remain low. Come the
weekend, mainly easterly winds will get established and then hold
through mid next week. This will lead to an increase of seas of 1
to 3 feet, with the larger waves being found offshore. Cautionary
conditions may be observed next week during the overnight hours if
we`re able to get the stronger easterly surges. Dry weather
prevails through the weekend, with showers and storms starting to
creep back into the forecast early or mid next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Mainly dry weather on tap through early next week. High pressure
gradually builds into the region with northeast winds on Friday and
Saturday, and minimum afternoon RH values dipping into the mid-40s
to mid-50s away from the coast. Fair dispersions are in order as
well

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Dry conditions look to persist through the weekend and into early
next week. At this time there are no hydrology concerns; however,
it is worth noting that the CPC has above normal chances for
precipitation in the 8-10 day forecast. This is likely due to the
anticipated development of a tropical cyclone in either the
northwest Caribbean or southeast Gulf. At this time it is too
early to determine what, if any type, of hydrology impacts we
might see. Especially since there is high uncertainty with the
ensemble and global models of where this system could go. Stay
tuned to the forecast.



&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  89  69  89 /  20  10   0   0
Panama City   72  90  72  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        70  89  69  90 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        69  88  68  89 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      69  88  69  88 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    71  89  70  90 /  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  73  87  74  86 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR