846
FXUS62 KTAE 131803
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
203 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

 - Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   although current guidance isn`t favoring meaningful rainfall
   for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Upper level ridge to our west slowly translates east through the
upcoming week. Across the local area, a weak surface high will
nose into the region and reinforce the dry northeasterly flow
regime currently in place. The sensible weather pattern shouldn`t
change much and afternoon highs will again remain in the mid 80s
with overnight lows in the upper 50s. No rain chances expected in
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The ridge continues east into the weekend with warm and dry
conditions forecast to continue. Highs will remain in the mid 80s
and overnight lows will slowly moderate from the upper 50s to the
low 60s by the weekend. Our next shot for higher rain chances
doesn`t appear to arrive until Sunday or at the start of next week
as an upper level trough swings through the southern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR through the period with the exception of VLD with light fog
between 10-13Z. Winds will be below 10 knots form the NW-N.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Gentle to moderate northerly winds induced by building surface
high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions over the
next several days. Afternoon seabreeze could bring directional
changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally
remain under 15 knots through the week. Some increase in easterly
flow is likely late in the week which could lead to borderline
cautionary seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next few days
under persistent north-northeasterly winds. Min RHs are forecast
to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each
afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the upcoming
week progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under
surface high pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next week. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   58  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    58  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs