080
FXUS62 KTAE 280531
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Northerly flow will weaken this afternoon ahead of another frontal
wave that approaches the region later this evening and into tonight.
Low-level humidity will increase from the east and southeast this
afternoon with the last bit of drier air expected to linger across
our Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties through the afternoon.
Conditions will be a little warmer ahead of the frontal system with
highs generally around 90 across much of the area. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast across much of the area but a few scattered
showers and storms can`t be ruled out across the southeast Florida
Big Bend where better low-level moisture and weak seabreeze
convergence will be greatest. Additionally, an isolated shower can`t
be ruled out later this evening across southeast Alabama as the next
frontal wave approaches the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A shortwave moves into our area Friday morning as it rounds the base
of the large eastern US trough. Some showers or storms may be
ongoing at the start of the short term over central Alabama with an
outflow boundary moving into the Wiregrass through Friday morning.
The feature overall will be on a weakening trend with the bulk of
the convection being to our west. But we could still have showers
and a few storms linger through the day across southeast Alabama.
Meanwhile, we will also have showers and storms develop along the
sea breeze during the afternoon across the Florida counties,
enhanced by a warm front lifting northward toward the coast. Severe
weather and widespread heavy rainfall are not anticipated on Friday.
Highs Friday afternoon are a bit tricky, especially over southeast
Alabama. Leaned on cooler guidance to the north and west given the
extra cloud cover and likely being in rain cooled air behind the
boundary. Highs in the Wiregrass will be around 80, though if the
rain lingers longer, some places may not make it out of the 70s.
Elsewhere, with a bit more sunshine, highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s.

On Saturday, another shortwave pivots around the base of the larger
parent trough, which helps nudge our front a bit more northward over
the land areas. Models are still a bit nebulous on whether or not
cyclogenesis can occur along the front near our area. If it does
happen, it would enhance our rain chances further given the very
moist air in place characterized by PWATs around 1.9 and 2.1
inches. We`ll also need to monitor for the threat of locally heavy
rainfall in this environment with a little extra lift in place.
There is still uncertainty here too as models are quite split on how
much rain could fall and where. The European ensembles are much
wetter and farther north than the GFS and Canadian counterparts.
Regardless, out of the holiday weekend, Saturday looks to be the
wettest day overall. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s,
though this could even be a touch high if more rain sticks around
through the day. Lows both Friday and Saturday nights will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The parent trough begins to nudge eastward a bit off the Atlantic
coast, which should help push our front back offshore, though
shortwaves that round the base of the trough may continue to spur a
frontal wave or two along the boundary. As a result, Sunday will
still be a rather wet day, especially over the Florida counties
closer to the front. But, rain chances will slowly diminish through
the early part of next week. Some drier air may begin to sneak back
into our area late in the period, but much uncertainty abounds with
the position of the trough and how far south our front is by next
week. Temperatures will gradually rebound with the decreasing rain
chances back to the upper 80s and perhaps near 90 by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions with light northerly winds will prevail through the
TAF period. Some brief MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out near
sunrise at VLD due to patchy fog potential.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Generally light to gentle northeasterly breezes will continue over
the waters through Friday before a stationary front lifts northward.
As the front wavers back and forth over our waters, wind directions
will be rather chaotic, though speeds remain gentle. North of the
front, winds will be out of the east to northeast, but south of the
front, winds will be more westerly to southwesterly. Winds early
next week will increase some as the pressure gradient tightens
between building high pressure to the north and the stationary front
to our south. Showers and storms are expected over the waters,
especially Friday through the end of the period. Seas will remain
around 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

As northerly flow weakens, moisture will begin to increase across
the area, especially across the Florida Big Bend and into southern
Georgia this afternoon. Residual dry air will still remain in place
across portions of the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama where
min RHs won`t be too much higher than Wednesday`s values. By Friday,
a frontal wave approaches the region and the combination of
increasing cloud cover, moisture, and lower temperature should allow
significantly higher RHs. This trend should continue into Saturday
and the remainder of the labor day weekend as cooler northeasterly
flow takes over. This pattern should allow low fire weather concerns
to prevail into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

With a stationary front nearby and high moisture content (PWATs
around 1.9-2.1 inches), some locally heavy rainfall is possible.
However, model guidance is quite disparate with the European
ensembles favoring a wetter and farther north scenario while the GFS
and Canadian ensembles lean drier and farther south. Deterministic
rainfall totals have crept upward a bit with 1-2 inches north of I-
10 and 2-3 inches south of I-10. This essentially splits the
difference between the ensemble camps right now. Reasonable worst
case rainfall totals have also crept up to 3 to 6 inches. This could
lead to some localized flash flooding, and at least parts of our
forecast area are in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1
of 4) through the holiday weekend.

On the riverine front, much depends on where the rain falls. If the
more northern solutions pan out, then some rises could be possible
on the southwest Georgia rivers, but most of the rivers would be
able to take several inches of rain with little problem. If the more
southern solutions pan out, then most of our rivers would be okay
with the only concern potentially being the Sopchoppy which has been
rather elevated as of late.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  72  85  71 /  20  10  50  30
Panama City   90  73  85  73 /  10  10  40  40
Dothan        88  69  81  69 /  10  10  50  40
Albany        89  70  84  69 /  10  10  40  40
Valdosta      89  70  85  70 /  30  10  40  30
Cross City    92  72  89  72 /  50  20  60  30
Apalachicola  87  74  86  75 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Young