193
FXUS62 KTAE 011529
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1129 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

No updates were  needed to the forecast this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A shortwave will get ingested into the larger upper level trough,
which ultimately gets pushed out of the region by high pressure
building in from the west. Fairly dry conditions are expected across
much of the region today, with perhaps a few isolated showers or
storms being possible over the Gulf or eastern most FL Big Bend
counties. Otherwise, look for partly to mostly to slowly give way
throughout the day. Highs will be in the mid 80s for SE AL and SW GA
while FL counties rise into the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat index
values for SE AL and SW GA should max out in the upper 80s to low
90s, while FL counties top out in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A building subtropical ridge whose axis noses up into the Carolinas
mid-week should cause tropical moisture plumes to advect northward
off the Gulf. This pattern prompts increasing rain chances for
initially the offshore zones on Wednesday, followed by a spread to
the coast, inland to our Western Timezone counties on Thursday. Some
instability fosters a slight chance for thunder. Otherwise, expect
unseasonably warm daytime conditions with highs in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. Overnight lows drop the upper 60s to about 70
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Tropical moisture continues to further overspread the region as a
subtropical ridge pivots eastward in response to a northern stream
longwave trough traversing the Great Lakes. The latter causes an
apparent backdoor front to slip south towards the I-10 corridor this
weekend. As a result, surface winds turn northeasterly and sharpen
offshore as an area of low pressure enters the Gulf. As of 2AM ET,
the National Hurricane Center gives this system a medium or 40%
chance of tropical development over the next 7 days somewhere
between the NW Caribbean and Central Gulf.

Overall, our official forecast shows increasing rain chances from
north to south with the greatest potential to the coastal/offshore
zones during the long-term period. Given the expected greater cloud
cover, high temperatures should trend cooler than the preceding
periods - widespread low to mid 80s. Overnight lows range from the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast today, with perhaps some patchy
MVFR fog lingering around or just after sunrise. A few showers
might creep up through the eastern FL Big Bend today, with dry
conditions expected elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Light winds and low seas are forecast through mid-week with chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds then increase out of the
east northeast as an area of low pressure moves into the Central
Gulf from the Western Caribbean heading towards the end of the week
into the weekend. This increase in winds may introduce cautionary
and perhaps advisory level winds to our waters. This system has a
medium or 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next 7
days as outlined by the National Hurricane Center as of 2AM Eastern
Time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

There only fire weather concern in the forecast are low dispersions
in the FL Big Bend today. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions prevail
through Wednesday with precipitation chances increasing towards the
end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Multiple Flood Warnings remain in effect across the Suwannee and
Ochlockonee basins, in addition to the Apalachicola River -
Blountstown. The Ochlockonee River - Concord is experiencing
moderate flooding while Withlacoochee River - Quitman is forecast to
reach moderate flood stage later today. Pinetta is also on the rise
and forecast to reach minor flood stage early Wednesday, so a new
Flood Warning may be issued later this morning. For the most part,
area river levels are cresting or falling. Looking ahead at
precipitation, forecast amounts from Thursday night into Tuesday
morning range from about 1.5" along the I-10 corridor to 3+ inches
towards the immediate coast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  68  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   87  71  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        87  68  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        86  67  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      86  68  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    87  71  90  68 /  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  84  72  86  72 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...IG3