118
FXUS62 KTAE 011818
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
218 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Broad trough across the eastern CONUS will help to push a weak
frontal boundary into the forecast area on Wednesday. This may
help to ease some drier air into the far northwestern portion of
the area, with slightly lower rain chances expected there.
Elsewhere, the boundary will help to enhance the diurnal
convective cycle with high PoPs in the forecast for much of the
region. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially across the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Weak front will sag southward through the area Wednesday night
through Thursday and get left behind as the upper trough lifts out
to the northeast. Drier air will filter in from the north, with
lower PoPs anticipated across the northwestern half of the
forecast area for Thursday. Across the southeast, the presence of
the boundary will continue to enhance diurnal convection. Will see
similar trends in temperatures, with higher temperatures to the
northwest, and lower temperatures to the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Longer term forecast is somewhat dependent on how the remnant
frontal boundary evolves as it stall across the NE Gulf and
adjacent Atlantic coastal waters. With much of the area on the
northern side of the boundary, a slighly drier airmass should
yield lower PoPs for the 4th of July Holiday into the first part
of the weekend. The exception may be the SE Big Bend, closer to
the boundary, or associated weak low. However, with the lower
PoPs, high temperatures will likely be on the increase as well,
with mid to upper 90s possible. By early next week, a return to
more typical summertime temperatures and rainfall chances is
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
should intermittently impact terminals through the afternoon and
early evening hours. Convective activity will quickly drop off
following sunset, allowing for VFR conditions to prevail overnight.
Thunderstorms and MVFR conditions are reintroduced in the final
hours of the TAF period for KECP and KTLH as seabreeze driven
storms begin to develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly breezes continue across
the northeastern Gulf thanks to high pressure anchored in the
Atlantic. A weakening cold front will approach the waters tomorrow
into Thursday, with winds shifting to westerly. A weak area of low
pressure may develop along the remnant front over the northeastern
Gulf or Atlantic Coast Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, late night and
morning thunderstorms are expected the next several mornings,
accompanied by gusty winds, lightning, and the potential for
waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A wet pattern is forecast to remain through the middle of the week
with minimal fire weather concerns. Slightly drier conditions are
expected towards the end of this week as a weak front stalls across
the area.

&&Forecast

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Broad trough, deep moisture, and approaching weak front will keep
wet pattern in place through Wednesday across the entire area, and
into Thursday across the southern half. Highest additional
rainfall totals will be across the southern half of the forecast
area, where 1 to 3 inches are possible, although locally higher
amounts cannot be ruled out. Localized flash remains a possibly,
especially along the coast into the SE Big Bend, where the
potential for heavy rainfall will extend into the latter part of
the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  73  89  73 /  80  40  90  30
Panama City   87  75  89  76 /  80  70  70  40
Dothan        88  72  89  71 /  80  40  50  10
Albany        89  72  89  72 /  80  50  60  20
Valdosta      87  73  89  73 /  70  30  90  30
Cross City    86  72  87  72 /  70  60  80  60
Apalachicola  84  76  87  76 /  80  60  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp