448
FXUS62 KTAE 181002
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
602 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For today, the 1000-700 mb mean flow will again be northeasterly
similar to yesterday, which will tend to pin the seabreeze closer to
the coast and lead to the highest chances for rain and thunderstorms
across our southeast big bend counties with lesser chances farther
north and west. The PoP gradient this afternoon will range from near
70-80 percent across Dixie county to just 10 percent across
southeast Alabama. Unsurprisingly, precipitable water values will
follow the same gradient, ranging from 1.5 inches across southeast
Alabama to as high as 2.2 inches across the southeast big bend. Some
locally heavy rain rates will still be possible across the southeast
big bend this afternoon. High temperatures will generally range from
90-95 across the area with heat indices mainly in the 101-106F range.

For tonight, most convection will taper off after sunset with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A few showers and
thunderstorms could linger offshore into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The NHC forecast takes Hurricane Erin between well offshore the
US east coast and Bermuda during this time frame. As such, Erin
is not a threat to the Tri-State region. Tuesday and Wednesday,
the 850 hPa flow will be northerly, with some added subsidence
well to the west of Erin keeping PoPs generally below average.
Expect the highest PoPs both days in the seabreeze zone around
and south of I-10, with higher PoP axis shifting into Southeast
AL on Wednesday, which was modified from guidance. Going back
to Tuesday, models show southward moving convection moving into
the Southwest GA counties by late evening before dissipating,
which was also modified from guidance. Thursday`s PoP config
should be similar to Wednesday. Continue to go closer to 75th
percentile of guidance for highs Tue-Wed, with many locations
in the middle 90s, albeit with dew points decreasing a couple
degrees on average during peak heating due to turbulent mixing.
Cannot rule out avisory-level heat (Apparent temperatures
AOA 108F), mainly on Wednesday in the FL Counties, where there
is a 50% chance of meeting criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A mid-level trough and surface front approach from the northwest
late this week, as meridional flow increases PWATs further, with
ensembles indicating around a 50% chance of reaching the 90th
percentile (i.e., ~2.15"). As such, PoPs return to AOA average on
Friday and Saturday, with heavy rainfall possible - See Hydrology
section at the bottom for further details. Ensembles favor Sunday
as the drier day of the upcoming weekend for locations away from
the Gulf coast. With increased cloud cover and rain chances, high
temperatures will be near or below average late this week.

We`re monitoring a tropical wave currently near the Cabo Verde
Islands with a 40% chance of developing late this week or this
weekend as it moves westward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Brief patchy fog around VLD will dissipate quickly after sunrise.
VFR should prevail for the rest of the TAF period outside of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours. The best chance at seeing a shower or storm this afternoon is
at TLH and VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Gentle easterly breezes are expected through Tuesday. As Hurricane
Erin recurves between well offshore the US east coast and Bermuda by
midweek, winds clock around to the northwest, but remain gentle.
Given small pressure gradient, a seabreeze develops each afternoon
and evening near the coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain,
but the potential for waterspouts is generally low. Briefly higher
winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low outside of some high dispersions
across the area on Tuesday. Transport winds will remain out of the
east to northeast around 10 mph through Tuesday before becoming
northwesterly to westerly on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected across the Florida and adjacent Georgia
zones this afternoon, then becoming more sparse for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Precip chances trend below average for Tuesday and Wednesday, then
return to average by Friday. In particular, chances for anomalously
high moisture increase on Friday into Saturday, as a surface front
approaches the region. Cannot rule out some heavy rainfall leading
to at least poor drainage flooding concerns on Saturday, but the
bar for flash flooding will be high given drier antecedent conditions
over the previous several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  73  95  75 /  40  10  40  20
Panama City   93  76  94  77 /  30  20  50  20
Dothan        93  73  95  74 /  10   0  20  10
Albany        93  72  95  74 /  10  10  20  20
Valdosta      92  72  95  73 /  50  10  20  10
Cross City    92  73  96  73 /  70  30  50  20
Apalachicola  89  78  89  78 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LF