066
FXUS62 KTAE 132319
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
719 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 713 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

 - Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   although current guidance isn`t favoring meaningful rainfall
   for the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Added some patchy fog across the I-75 corridor in Georgia and
along the Suwannee River in the Florida Big Bend. Also added some
over the Apalachicola National Forest for early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, most of the forecast is on track with minor temperature
tweaks made for Tuesday morning`s low, which remain generally in
the low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Upper level ridge to our west slowly translates east through the
upcoming week. Across the local area, a weak surface high will
nose into the region and reinforce the dry northeasterly flow
regime currently in place. The sensible weather pattern shouldn`t
change much and afternoon highs will again remain in the mid 80s
with overnight lows in the upper 50s. No rain chances expected in
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The ridge continues east into the weekend with warm and dry
conditions forecast to continue. Highs will remain in the mid 80s
and overnight lows will slowly moderate from the upper 50s to the
low 60s by the weekend. Our next shot for higher rain chances
doesn`t appear to arrive until Sunday or at the start of next week
as an upper level trough swings through the southern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period with a light northerly-northwesterly breeze turning more
northeasterly during the day Tuesday. There is a TEMPO group for
KVLD for some fog and/or low ceilings early Tuesday morning. There
is also that potential in and around KTLH between 10Z and 12Z, but
kept it out with this TAF issuance as it may be more ground fog
like it was this morning and rather transient in nature.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Gentle to moderate northerly winds induced by building surface
high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions over the
next several days. Afternoon seabreeze could bring directional
changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally
remain under 15 knots through the week. Some increase in easterly
flow is likely late in the week which could lead to borderline
cautionary seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next few days
under persistent north-northeasterly winds. Min RHs are forecast
to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each
afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the upcoming
week progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under
surface high pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next week. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   58  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    56  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs