126
FXUS62 KTAE 041459
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1059 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The early morning forecast is tracking well, so no updates are
needed this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Unseasonably warm and muggy conditions are expected to continue into
tonight as the region will be under moist south and southeasterly
low level flow. This pattern is in response to a large upper level
ridge across the western Atlantic. This ridge will also reinforce
breezy conditions as a relatively tight pressure gradient between
surface high pressure to our east and passing disturbances well off
to our northwest keep low-level winds elevated. Gusts will be
highest in the afternoon as we mix up into the higher winds aloft.
Did go slightly warmer than NBM guidance for this afternoon given
the well mixed conditions that are likely today as well as warmer
low-mid level temperatures expected to move into the region today.
Aside from the warmth, with temperatures in the upper 80s and low
90s (in our eastern zones), wind gusts could hit 25 to maybe even 30
mph again this afternoon.

Wind gusts drop off quickly tonight as diurnal heating subsides. The
muggy southerly flow will keep overnight lows very mild and in the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Upper-level ridging shifts farther to the east and weakens
slightly as the next shortwave begins to pivot into the southern
Plains. High pressure will remain established over the western
Atlantic with a stationary front from eastern Texas into the Ohio
Valley. This will keep the pressure gradient rather tight over the
area, leading to breezy weather Saturday afternoon as we mix out.
It will still be quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Clouds begin to increase Saturday night as the system to our west
inches closer. This combined with the warm, moist advection
continuing over the area will lead to lows in the mid to upper
60s.

Additionally, given the breezy winds, rough surf, and long-period
swells, dangerous rip currents and rough surf will continue along
area beaches despite the nice weather. Please heed the beach
flags and advice from lifeguards!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The shortwave over the southern Plains ejects into the Southeast
Sunday night and Monday, sending a cold front our way. Rain
chances begin to increase over southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle Sunday afternoon with the bulk of showers and storms
arriving Sunday night. However, with the shortwave becoming
increasingly positively tilted, the front will take its time
moving through the area. Showers and storms that manage to stay
ahead of the front will be capable of becoming strong to possibly
severe. Ample instability and deep-layer shear will be in place
ahead of the front. But, there is the possibility that the front
outruns the showers and storms, which would essential cap the
lower levels and zap the instability. Overall, it appears the best
chance of severe weather will be Sunday afternoon through late
Sunday night in the Central Time Zone counties, and late Sunday
night through early Monday afternoon elsewhere. Damaging winds and
a few tornadoes will be the primary threats with severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western half of the
area in a Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a
Marginal Risk elsewhere.

Additionally, since this will be a slower system, can`t rule out
some locally heavy rainfall totals. Right now, most likely
forecasts are around 1-2 inches, but localized high-end totals of
3-4 inches appear possible.

Highs Sunday will still be in the 80s area wide, but temperatures
will be held down Monday with rain, clouds, and cold air advection
beginning. Highs Monday will range from the mid-60s over southeast
Alabama to the upper 70s in the southeast Big Bend. Cool air stick
around through the rest of the long term with highs rising back
into the 70s and lows in the 40s.

Dangerous rip currents will also continue into early next week
along all our beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the period
but periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible this morning and
at least a few hours after sunrise, mostly at ECP, DHN, and TLH.
Further east at ABY and VLD, MVFR conditions are possible if
patchy fog and/or low ceilings can develop. Restrictions should
clear early across VLD/ABY and by 18z at DHN, ECP, and TLH. Gusty
southerly winds with occasional 20 to 25 knot gusts are possible
again this afternoon but these will diminish in the early evening
near sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1059 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The pressure gradient between a high pressure center over the
western Atlantic and a stationary front draped over the central
part of the Nation will keep fresh and sometimes strong southerly
breezes going through Sunday night. A sharp cold front will pass
the waters on Monday, bringing a line of strong thunderstorms. The
front will be followed by fresh or perhaps strong northerly
breezes on Monday and Tuesday nights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

While moist southerly flow should keep fire weather concerns low,
the main areas of any fire weather concerns will be breezy southerly
winds and some areas of high dispersions. These high dispersions
would mostly be across inland zones with coastal dispersions being
lower. Occasional gusts to 20 or 25 mph are possible this afternoon,
especially across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama zones. Breezy
conditions continue through the weekend, with gusts subsiding at
night, until a cold front approaches and moves through Sunday night
into Monday. The chances for a wetting rain across the area with
this next front are high for Sunday evening into Monday with
forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

About 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely across the area Sunday into
Monday with localized high-end totals of 3 to 4 inches possible,
especially if the line slows down across the Florida Panhandle
into southeast Alabama. This is where the Weather Prediction
Center has outlined a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2
of 4) with a Marginal Risk eastward. Overall, the flood threat
appears to be on the lower side unless the rain falls in a short
period of time. This also won`t result in significant rises on our
rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  66  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   84  69  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  66  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        91  65  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      92  67  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    92  65  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  69  77  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Young