238
FXUS62 KTAE 230235
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Nothing more than a few minor wind tweaks were needed this
evening. We are still on track for a sufficiently cold night for
inland areas to get the first frost of the season.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

High pressure will settle over southern Mississippi or southeast
Louisiana tonight. This will set up a clear and dry night across the
area. The high is close enough to our area that we`ll see periods of
time where radiational cooling may be realized thanks to winds
settling to calm. When these bouts occur, temperatures may drop
quickly during these breaks in the wind. When the wind picks up (3
to 5 mph), then temperatures may bounce back up. It`s a tricky
forecast as it`s not the ideal setup. However, have erred on the
cooler side of guidance close to the previous forecast with
widespread mid-30s with lower 40s close to the coast. This leans a
lot more on the MOS guidance as well as NBM50. Given the very light
to maybe calm winds as well as high relative humidity, have issued a
Frost Advisory for everywhere but the coast. For those who have
sensitive plants, make sure to either bring them inside or cover
them to protect them from the cold. High pressure will slide
eastward tomorrow and be nearly overhead tomorrow afternoon. Highs
will rise into the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

After another cold start Sunday morning with patchy frost, surface
high pressure will be transitioning east across the peninsula and
winds will shift from the cooler northwest flow to a more moderating
southwest return flow with increasing moisture levels. Highs will be
5-10 degrees warmer Sunday compared to Saturday with readings in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The moderating trend continues into Tuesday
with highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows also warming into the
50s by Tuesday morning.

The first of two cold fronts this period will make a run at the tri-
state area Tuesday as the supporting shortwave trough scoots across
southern Canada. The tail end of the front will be weakening and
there won`t be much in the way of cold air advection behind this
front with low rain chances (10-20%) over our SE AL and western FL
panhandle counties. Therefore, the 70s for highs will continue into
Wednesday and Thursday.

A stronger and more potent low pressure system and cold front
develops in the southern Plains Thursday as another trough exits the
Rockies. This front will have greater rain chances (30-50%)
beginning later Thanksgiving day through Friday morning as it
swings through our area. Seems the dynamics will be north of the
region, and its questionable how much moisture return can occur
after the Tuesday front, but there may be a few thunderstorms as
well. Rain chances decrease through the morning and afternoon
Friday. Friday temperatures will turn cooler with a 10-15 degrees
drop in highs with readings back into the 60s with breezy
northwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

A dry continental air mass will persist across the terminals for
the next 24 hours, thanks to deep northwest flow aloft and an
approaching surface high from the west. Clear skies and
unrestricted visibilities will continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Buoy 42036 --- with its favorable fetch length in NW flow for
building seas --- has been observing 6-foot seas for most of the
evening.

Fresh northerly breezes will continue through the overnight hours
tonight. Then a gradual decrease in winds and seas will occur on
Saturday and Saturday night, until surface high pressure passes
directly across the waters on Sunday morning. As high pressure
moves east later Sunday, gentle southerly breezes will develop. A
weak cold front will make a run toward the coastal waters Tuesday
with winds becoming westerly for a brief period then back to
southerly later Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Northwesterly transport winds around 10 mph on Saturday will
become more westerly on Sunday, then southwesterly on Monday.
Overall, mixing heights will remain around 2,500 to 3,500 feet
each afternoon, though slightly higher Monday afternoon west of
the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers. Thus, dispersions will be fair
each afternoon across the area, though good over western areas
Monday. Min RH values will also increase from the low to mid 30s
Saturday to the mid to upper 40s on Monday. Fire weather concerns
remain low over the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the
start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   40  64  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   41  66  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        35  63  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        36  63  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      37  64  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    35  66  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  43  64  49  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM
     CST/ Saturday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034.

GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Scholl