110
FXUS62 KTAE 121743
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
143 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - Widespread low temperatures are forecast in the 50s for the
   next few mornings.

 - A warm and dry forecast next week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Pleasant and dry conditions are forecast to continue through at
least the next several days with offshore winds overhead. A mid
level cutoff low over the GA/SC coast will continue to slowly drag
a surface low pressure system further off to the northeast over
the coming days. As it moves further away, less cloud cover will
be expected from the wrap around moisture and mostly sunny skies
are forecast to persist through the week. With light northerly
flow reinforcing the dry air mass overhead, low temperatures will
continue to drop into the 50s for most of the area this week with
high temperatures gradually warming a bit into the 80s.

Mid to late week, mid level ridging is forecast to slide across
the region from the west, and a weak backdoor front may end up
sliding southwestward through the area. At this time, not much
noticeable change is expected with this front. Towards the
weekend, onshore flow is expected to return which will bring
increasing moisture, warming temperatures, and a slow return of
rain chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a
light northerly breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes induced by building surface
high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions over the
next several days. Afternoon seabreezes prompt an onshore flow
along the nearshore legs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next 3 days under
persistent offshore winds. Min RH is forecast to be in the 30s & 40s
for much of the Tri-State area each afternoon. Elevated fire
concerns appear likely as the upcoming week progresses thanks to
prolonged warm & dry conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next several days.
Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much
of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   57  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   61  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        55  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  83  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    58  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  81  63  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3