959
FXUS62 KTAE 111905
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
305 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Weak tropical wave currently near the northeastern Gulf coast
will continue to push northwestward over the next 24 hours. Deep
moisture and lift associated with the wave will keep the weather
unsettled with above normal PoPs, gradually shifting towards the
western CWA with time. Locally heavy rain will accompany the
showers and storms, although the heavy amounts are not expected to
be widespread enough to warrant a flood watch at this time.
Expect generally rainfall amounts through Tuesday afternoon to be
1 to 2 inches, with localized amounts likely double that.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The surface through that brought us showers and thunderstorms for
the start of the week will have moved further inland to our
northwest and a subtropical ridge of high pressure will begin to
extend westward from the Atlantic. The high pressure will allow
for temperatures to being to increase to the low-mid 90s. PoPs
will still be elevated with 50-60% chance on Wednesday. The
panhandle and SE Alabama counties are included in a Marginal Risk
(1 of 4) for excessive rainfall as the Gulf low is still exiting
the region. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

As the ridge of high pressure settles over the Florida Peninsula
and the Gulf Coast states, our weather will become a more typical
summertime pattern. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
during the afternoon hours with PoPs of 40-50 percent in a
diurnal set up. Temperatures will be warming to the mid 90s with
heat indices above 100 degrees. There is the potential for heat
indices to reach 108 degrees, which will meet the criteria for
advisories. Overnight lows will remain steady in the mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Trough of low pressure lifting north from the Gulf will keep
showers and thunderstorms hanging around area terminals through
the evening with MVFR cigs in place. MVFR with some scattered IFR
cigs are possible overnight along with additional showers,
especially at coastal sites. The active convective pattern will
continue into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Maritime convection will flourish the next couple of days thanks
to a tropical wave traversing the Northern Gulf. Locally gusty
winds, frequent lightning, reduced visibility, and waterspouts
will be the main concerns. Otherwise, gentle to moderate south to
southeast breezes prevail into mid-week. Thereafter, winds turn
more southwesterly in response to a ridge of high pressure
building over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be more
diurnally driven, beginning over water during the late night,
early-morning hours, then shifting to the coast with the afternoon
seabreeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A wet weather pattern will continue through Tuesday as a tropical
wave move northwestward across the region. This will limit fire
weather concerns through mid-week. Rain chances will diminish
slightly and temperatures will rise by the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected over
the next few days for the Tri-State region. The coastal areas are
included in a Slight risk (level 2 of 4) and the rest of the
region is in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for today. Over the next few
days, a Marginal risk continues for the west/northwest portions
of our CWA through midweek. Later this week, rain chances begin to
decrease. Our rivers are generally in good condition, however
some may reach into Action stage after this event. The only real
concern would be the Sopchoppy River which could enter in to Minor
flooding if several inches of rainfall occurs.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  90  75  92 /  40  60  10  60
Panama City   76  89  78  90 /  60  70  30  50
Dothan        74  87  73  90 /  60  70  10  60
Albany        74  91  73  92 /  40  60  10  50
Valdosta      74  93  74  94 /  20  40  10  50
Cross City    74  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  60
Apalachicola  78  87  79  89 /  60  60  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery