381
FXUS62 KTAE 222126
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
426 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday night)
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Dry weather with very cold temperatures through Thursday night.

Any snow/sleet that melted today will refreeze this evening as
temperatures plunge below 32F. As a result, roads and walkways,
especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and
hazardous again. In particular, this will impact the Thursday
morning commute, until temps rise above 32F again. Areas across SE
Alabama, SW Georgia and the FL Panhandle, where the heaviest
snowfall occurred, may experience refreezing tomorrow night into
Friday morning as temperatures drop well below freezing once
again.

An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect tonight and Thursday
morning from the Flint River Valley in GA westward into Southeast
AL, the Eastern FL Panhandle, and Western FL Big Bend for
temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees. For the remainder of
Southwest GA and the FL Big Bend, a Cold Weather Advisory is in
effect for temperatures in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

When venturing outside, please dress for cold weather, in order
to prevent frostbite and hypothermia, and tread carefully on any
icy surfaces. In addition, for those that lost power, we`re
emphasizing generator safety to prevent Carbon Monoxide poisoning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Friday through this weekend will be characterized as dominated by
surface high pressure. It`ll slide south and east over the weekend.
Winds will predominantly remain out of the north-northeast through
Saturday, unfortunately this means this brutal cold air mass remains
with us until then. By Sunday as high pressure begins to slide off
the southeast coast, we`ll begin to clock around to a more east-
southeast flow, allowing overnight low temps to go above freezing
Monday and Tuesday mornings. A gradual warm-up is expected next
week. Daytime highs will remain relatively suppressed Friday and
Saturday with temps generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Sunday and
beyond will see temps generally above 50 degrees for daytime highs
with low to mid 60s possible by Tuesday across our Florida counties.
Our next chance for precip will come around mid-week next week,
although there isn`t much model consensus on timing. Be sure to
check back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

The main concern will be restrictions in low clouds/fog developing
tonight and Thursday morning. Confidence is highest in low clouds
leading to IFR at TLH/VLD, and will be slow to lift on Thursday.
Confidence was high enough to include at least brief restrictions
in low clouds/fog at ABY, DHN, and ECP, with further refinements
expected in subsequent TAFs. North-Northeast winds around 5 to 10
kts through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Now post-frontal, winds are beginning to gradually come down to
below cautionary criteria. A weak reinforcing cold front on Thursday
will maintain moderate northerlies through Friday. High pressure
will pass by to the north this weekend, so winds will clock around
and become easterly by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

A cool and dry air mass will prevail through this weekend.
Temperatures will run well below normal, with hard freezes to
start each morning through Sunday. Any rainfall early next week
will be light, and should fall short of a wetting rain.

Otherwise, a surface high pressure ridge passing across the region
on Thursday will limit daytime dispersion into the fair category.
A dry reinforcing cold front early Friday will bring a short-lived
increase in northwest and northerly winds. Strong surface high
pressure will settle directly over the districts on Saturday, with
the low mixing heights and light winds supporting only poor
dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Rainfall amounts will generally be around a half inch or less
through the next week. There are currently no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   20  38  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   23  42  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        11  37  22  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        10  37  21  41 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      16  36  20  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    27  44  24  50 /   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  26  42  26  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Thursday for FLZ007>017-026-027-108-
     112-114-115-127.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-128-134.

GA...Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for GAZ120>128-142>145-155>157.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for GAZ129>131-146>148-158>161.

AL...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Oliver