248
FXUS62 KTAE 092351
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tomorrow will once again feature ridging as an upper low
continues to traverse across the northern plains toward the Great
Lakes. Throughout tomorrow, the ridge will gradually slide further
SE over the Atlantic with its northwestern axis over the forecast
area. Upper flow will slowly become more zonal (oriented east to
west) as a result with relatively weak flow aloft. Despite an
anomalously moist airmass remaining in place, weak flow will result
in weaker forcing across the area, thus keeping PoPs quite low
throughout the day with stray and brief scattered showers possible.
As a result of the moist airmass, cloudy conditions are expected to
continue with muggy conditions at the surface. Low temperatures
tonight are expected to drop into the mid to upper 60s with daytime
highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Partly cloudy conditions and perhaps a few showers (maybe even a
rumble of thunder) are expected from Sunday night into Monday
evening. A weakening frontal boundary will limp into the forecast
area as a weak upper level trough passes quickly from west to east
well north of the forecast area. Additionally, southeasterly flow
on the very far eastern periphery of weakening tropical storm
Rafael should give us enough moisture to keep a mention of rain
chances across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties on
Monday. Warm conditions should continue on Monday with high
temperatures in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Models are in moderate agreement through the middle of the
upcoming week. The front from Monday will limp through much of the
forecast area with surface high pressure likely filling into the
region into Wednesday. With potentially cooler north and
northeasterly flow developing we should finally at least see
a downward trend in temperatures away from the near-record values
we`ve observed recently. However, even highs around 80 and lows in
the mid to upper 50s is still well above normal for this time of
year.

The upper level pattern should remain somewhat progressive into
the weekend as another system potentially moves through on
Thursday/Friday, but EC/GFS guidance is still fairly different
with respect to the forecast impacts with the Euro bringing better
chances for rain and possibly a few storms while the GFS guidance
is weaker with more isolated rain chances.

Regardless of the Thursday system potential, much of the global
guidance and ensembles suggest cooler temperatures into next
weekend but like earlier in the week, these temperatures would
most likely be around or just above seasonable averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

The main aviation concerns overnight into the late morning or
early aftn are at least MVFR restrictions in low cigs. A stratus
deck is fcst to overspread all terminals from east to west.
Easternmost terminals stand the best chance of experiencing brief
periods of IFR, especially VLD/TLH. Low stratus slowly erodes from
south to north after sunrise with gradual improvement at all
sites. For DHN/ABY, VFR holds off until about 19 or 20Z. East
winds 6-10 kts tonight veer out of the SE tmrw.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tropical Storm Rafael is located in the southern Gulf of Mexico
and continues to slowly drift westward. The main impact from
Rafael continues to be long period swells beyond 20 NM offshore. A
nocturnal surge in wind will bring small craft advisory
conditions to Gulf waters west of Apalachicola overnight tonight.
Otherwise, high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will maintain
easterly breezes through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Poor to fair dispersions will prevail through the next couple
days as mixing heights cap out around 3000-4000ft with easterly
transport winds 10-15mph. Low dispersions are possible across SE AL
and our Florida counties on Monday as a result. Dispersions are
expected to improve as mixing heights increase on Tuesday. Rain
chances will remain low as well with chances ranging from around 10-
20%. MinRH values will remain around 55-70% Sunday and Monday as a
moist airmass continues to sit over the region. We should see a drop
in MinRH on Tuesday as a drier airmass settles in with MinRH
generally around 45-55% areawide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Heavy rains from Wednesday`s flooding event across Valdosta will
continue to work their way through the Withlacoochee River basin
but with dry antecedent conditions across the basin no significant
rises downstream are expected and with Withlacoochee River at
Valdosta should fall below flood stage tonight or early Sunday
morning. No further hydrological concerns are expected and any
rainfall amounts through the next 5 days will not be significant.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  81  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   70  81  68  82 /   0  10  10  10
Dothan        68  81  65  83 /  10  10  10  20
Albany        66  80  66  83 /  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      68  83  67  84 /   0  10   0  10
Cross City    69  85  67  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  78  70  80 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs