249
FXUS62 KTAE 121014
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
614 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

The upper low that has been nearly stationary to our west over
the past few days will finally begin to move eastward today and
tonight. We`ll see another day of scattered to numerous bands of
showers and a few thunderstorms today, although showers will be
sporadic and this will not be an all day persistent rain. A few
storms could be strong to briefly severe with isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail, and the SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) across portions of southeast Alabama, southern Georgia, and the
Florida big bend today. The coverage of showers will decrease
overnight, although a few may linger here and there with upper
level support. Highs today will mostly be in the 80s with
overnight lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

The upper level cutoff low will be lifting north through the day
Tuesday, heading towards the Tennessee Valley. This low was
responsible for all the rain we had this past weekend. With it
exiting the area, upper level ridging will fill in to replace it.
The ridging will be slow to build, so there may be some isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, however these will be more
diurnally and sea breeze driven; as we will have southwesterly
winds at the surface. PoPs for Tuesday range from 25-50% with
higher chances along I-10 and I-75 corridors. On Wednesday, drier
air will begin filtering in as we will have northwest winds aloft.
This will reduce our rain chances to less than 20%. Temperatures
for the short term will have afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s, with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Upper level ridging will be building Thursday and continue into
the weekend. The upper level ridge along with a surface high will
inhibit convection causing PoPs to be zero, and allow for
temperatures to soar into the mid and (possibly) upper 90s.
Southerly flow will be expected at the surface, keeping dew points
elevated in the upper 60s and low 70s. This will lead to heat
indices around 100 degrees for this weekend. There is a minimal
chance for showers/thunderstorms to return over the weekend for
our northern tier counties as storms develop along the perimeter
of the ridge. Our chances will depend on whether the ridge will
flatten or traverse south into our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Occasional rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will
continue through this afternoon, although activity will be less
widespread than yesterday. Otherwise, pockets of MVFR to IFR
ceilings this morning are expected lift to VFR by this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop today as an upper level
trough and a surface low moves over the region. Southwest winds
and seas of 3-5 feet are expected today; however the trend should
begin to calm down as we head into midweek as high pressure begins
to move and settle over the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Given the recent widespread rainfall, there are minimal fire
weather concerns for the next few days other than high
dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Several inches of rain has fallen over the past few days. There
is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms today (Monday)
however, there is a less chance that these storms will produce
heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for
excessive rainfall for our SE Alabama counties, portions of SW
Georgia, and the FL Southeast Big Bend. There is a Slight (level 2
of 4) Risk for Dixie County today. Flash flooding will remain the
main concern in areas that have already received several inches
of rainfall. River rises are possible however, they have been
running real low due to antecedent conditions and are not expected
to go into Minor Flood stage. Rises into Action stage may be
possible over the next few days for the Choctawhatchee and maybe
as far north along the Kinchafoonee and Flint rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  65  83  64 /  50  10  40   0
Panama City   79  68  80  70 /  50  30  20   0
Dothan        81  62  81  64 /  70  30  30   0
Albany        84  63  82  64 /  60  10  40  10
Valdosta      84  64  83  64 /  60  10  40   0
Cross City    82  65  82  65 /  70  10  40   0
Apalachicola  79  70  80  70 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery