593
FXUS62 KTAE 261827
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
227 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

As the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon, a few isolated
showers, maybe a thunderstorm, could develop, mainly near and north
of I-10 in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. These will
be rather few and far between with rain chances generally around
20%. Any storms that develop this afternoon will quickly fade after
sunset. Another round of fog is likely tonight, especially over
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Some locally dense fog
cannot be ruled out. Lows will be in the 60s.

A weak shortwave trough pushes into the area on Sunday, sending a
weak cold front our way, which will interact with the sea breeze to
some extent to provide a little extra convergence. We`ll have a
little bit more moisture to work with as PWATs climb to 1.3 to 1.5
inches. Still not an overly impressive amount of moisture, but we
may have a few more showers and storms scattered about the area
Sunday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that impressive (around 15
kt or so), but there will be plenty of instability and a bit of mid-
level dry air. So, there is the chance for a couple storms to
produce gusty winds. Outside of storms, it will be hot with highs in
the lower half of the 90s. Thankfully, we`re not dealing with
summertime humidity, but given it`s an early heat spell, please use
caution if outdoors tomorrow. Stay in the shade and stay hydrated.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Above average temperatures and humid weather continues over the next
several days, with the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms
on Monday and again Friday into Saturday, as frontal boundaries act
to enhance lift.

Lingering showers into Sunday night with a rumble of thunder early,
mainly north of I-10, with the passage of a backdoor front. Also,
fog is possible Monday morning, mainly in the Eastern FL Panhandle.
The backdoor front stalls over the region on Monday, which interacts
with the gulf/east coast sea breeze boundaries, along with some
easterly speed convergence noted along the periphery of the low to
mid-level ridge. However, the lift may be tempered by subsidence
from the ridge, and PWATs struggle to rise above 1.0 inch, while
instability is meager. Our forecast emphasizes the east coast sea
breeze, with PoPs increasing from 20% west to 50% east during the
afternoon and evening, but thunder chances may be limited.

From Tuesday through Thursday, a shower or thunderstorm is possible
each afternoon and evening, but overall PoPs are low. A cold front
approaches on Friday and leads to a chance of showers and thunder-
storms into Saturday. Gusty winds and lightning are the main concerns
with any storms given outdoor events both days.

Highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day away from
the gulf coast, with dew points in the mid-60s (overnight lows),
which will make for very warm and humid conditions for late April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevails at the terminals through this
evening. A Cu field has developed across the area with cigs around
035-050 expected. Isolated TSRA may develop near DHN this
afternoon which is accounted for with a PROB30 from 21-00z.
Another round of fog is expected tonight, mainly TLH, DHN, and
ECP with IFR/MVFR restrictions. Potentially dense fog is possible
at ECP, and have added a TEMPO group to account for this. VLD
could be right on the edge, so made mention of BR with no
categorical changes. VFR conditions resume after 13-14z

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A bubble of high pressure will reside over the far northeast Gulf
through Monday afternoon, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze
the main driver of wind. Fog is possible each morning over the
protected waters of the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Stronger high
pressure will move from the Delmarva region toward Bermuda from
Monday night through Wednesday, bringing a turn to easterly flow.
Moderate to possibly fresh nocturnal surges are expected, especially
on Monday and Tuesday nights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Isolated showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon generally
away from the coast. Better coverage of showers and storms is
expected Monday across south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.
Isolated storms are still possible Tuesday. Within these storms,
dangerous lightning and gusty, erratic winds are possible hazards.

Otherwise, good dispersions are expected over the next few days
given generally light transport winds and high mixing heights. The
daily sea breeze circulation will cause winds to become more
southerly during the afternoon hours, especially in the Florida
zones.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

No flooding is expected over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  66  92  66 /   0   0  20  10
Panama City   83  68  86  68 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        87  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  20
Albany        88  65  91  66 /  10  10  20  20
Valdosta      91  66  93  67 /  10   0  20  20
Cross City    88  62  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  80  67  82  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...LF