695
FXUS62 KTAE 091853
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
253 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A quasi-stationary frontal is draped along/just south of I-10 as of
18Z with batches of showers and thunderstorms continuing to stream
northeastward across the Tri-State region. The main concerns are a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather, flash flooding, and
fog tonight.

SB CAPE to the south of the boundary ranges from 500-1k J/kg, while
SRH (0-1 km) just north of the boundary is around 300 m2/s2. As a
result, storms near the boundary will need to be watched for
rotation and the potential for a brief tornado. While low-level
lapse rates remain poor due to considerable cloud cover, Bulk Shear
(0-6 km) is around 50 kts, so storms will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts. Cannot rule out some hail, but it should be on
the smaller side if it occurs, given the hail parameters.

The Flood Watch continues into tonight for the roughly southern
half of the GA counties and all of the FL counties except Dixie.
Favorable moisture transport with PWAT around 1.7 inches, forced
along the stationary boundary, could lead to flash flooding with
repeated training of heavy showers/storms into tonight. The most
vulnerable area is closer to to I-10 in the FL Counties, where
radar estimated rainfall as of 18Z is 2-4 inches.

Dense marine fog could move into coastal areas overnight, as it
did earlier today. Otherwise, expect patchy to areas of fog to
develop this evening into the overnight hours, especially from
the FL Big Bend into Southwest GA, where it could be locally
dense. Lows in the 50s and 60s.

Wraparound moisture on Monday keeps a chance of showers in the
forecast mainly north of I-10, with gusty northwest winds in
the wake of the departing low. Highs on Monday only in the mid-
50s north to mid-60s south. It will be chilly up north with the
cloud cover/showers and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Drier and cooler conditions are expected Monday night in the wake
of a cold front. Lows are forecast generally in the 40s both
Monday night and Tuesday night under clear skies before a gradual
warming and moistening trend takes hold. A few rain showers will
be possible across the region on Thursday as a shortwave passes
across the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures may be a tad lower on
Thursday as a result of increased clouds and rain chances, but
there is no surface front associated with this system and
therefore no big temperature changes are expected in its wake. The
warming and moistening trend is forecast to continue until the
next frontal system approaches the area over the weekend. While
it`s still almost a week away, early signs point to some severe
weather potential with this system.

&&


.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Low pressure moving along a stalled front near the Gulf coast
will lead to waves of SHRA and TSRA into the overnight hours
at all of the terminals along with low cigs/vsbys. As of early
afternoon, IFR/LIFR restrictions were in place at ECP/TLH/VLD
with MVFR at ABY/DHN. Expect widespread IFR/LIFR overnight,
especially in TSRA. Precip will diminish from west to east on
Monday morning, with cigs lifting to IFR/MVFR by late morning
at all terminals, as northwest winds increase to around 10 kts
with gusts to around 20 knots at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

An area of low pressure will move along the Gulf Coast before
exiting to our east Monday. Showers and thunderstorms, and areas
of dense marine fog, will continue through tonight. Some strong
storms with gusty winds, hail, and waterspouts are possible.
Meanwhile, Southerly winds will increase ahead of the low later
today. As the low passes by, the pressure gradient will tighten,
and winds will become more westerly and increase to advisory level
with a few gusts near gale force possible, particularly west of
Apalachicola. Seas will also build to 6 to 10 feet in response to
the increasing winds. Northwesterly winds subside Monday night
into Tuesday before becoming southerly Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Gusty northwest winds on Monday with lingering showers mainly
north of I-10 over Southeast AL and Southwest GA, as a moist
air mass remains in place. With strong transport winds and
rising mixing heights, pockets of high dispersion are likely
Monday afternoon over Southeast AL and Southwest GA. A much
drier air mass filters in for Tuesday as minimum afternoon
RH falls into the mid-20s to mid-30s. Despite the dry air,
fire weather concerns should remain low on Tuesday, given
recent wetting rains and much lighter winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Several waves of showers and storms will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the area through this
evening and into tonight. A swath of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall has
fallen roughly along a line from coastal Walton County to
Tallahassee and Valdosta over the last 12 to 24 hours, and another
few inches of rain will be possible through tonight. Mainly
advisory-level flooding is expected, but there could be a few
spots of flash flooding if storms continue to train over the same
areas, particularly in urban spots. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for the Florida Panhandle, most of the Florida Big Bend,
and portions of South Georgia until later tonight.

Area rivers and streams are on the rise today with recent
rainfall. Recent and expected rainfall will likely lead to minor
flooding on several rivers including the Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and
Withlacoochee over the coming days. No flood warnings have been
issued yet, however since additional rainfall to come may have a
large impact on eventual crests and potential flooding. After
tonight, we have a drier spell forecast until Thursday, but
significant rainfall is not expected with that system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   57  63  46  74 /  90  20   0   0
Panama City   56  65  50  71 /  60  10   0   0
Dothan        52  62  42  73 /  70  30   0   0
Albany        51  58  41  72 /  80  50   0   0
Valdosta      55  63  45  74 /  90  30   0   0
Cross City    63  68  46  74 /  70  40   0   0
Apalachicola  59  64  50  70 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for FLZ007>019-
     026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127-128.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for GAZ143>148-155>161.

AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday to 5 AM EDT
     /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield