164
FXUS62 KTAE 150120
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

 - Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   bringing higher rainfall chances. Forecast rainfall is not
   likely to help drought conditions abate.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Only minor changes were made to update for current conditions.
The forecast is on track and no other updates were required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Surface high pressure slowly noses into the region as an upper
level ridge to our west slowly begins to translate east. The
reinforcing bout of northeasterly flow is due largely in part to a
large US trough exiting the east coast of the US. For sensible
weather impacts, things will largely remain the same. Warm, dry,
and mostly clear conditions should prevail. The clear skies and
dry air mass should allow cool overnight lows to prevail. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s
can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The upper level ridge flattens and continues moving east into the
weekend as low-level flow becomes easterly and then southeasterly
by Saturday. A small cool-down by a few degrees is possible on
Friday, especially across our Georgia counties, but as flow
becomes southerly ahead of an approaching upper level trough on
Sunday, expect a return to the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Dry
conditions should continue to prevail until the trough and
associated front moves through Sunday into Monday. This should
bring high rain chances to the forecast area but the more
progressive nature of this system will generally keep higher
rainfall totals away from the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with light
northeasterly winds and clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Gentle to moderate north-northeasterly winds induced by building
surface high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions
through Thursday. The afternoon sea breeze could bring directional
changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally
remain under 15 knots. An increase in easterly flow is likely by
Friday which could lead to cautionary conditions heading into the
weekend. Rain is not expected until late in the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Dry and warm conditions prevail the next few days under
persistent northeasterly winds. Minimum relative humidities are
forecast to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area
each afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the week
progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under
surface high pressure. However, critical fire weather conditions
are not forecast to develop with relative humidities remaining
above criteria and winds not being high enough. Our next chance
of rain will be late this weekend as a front moves through but
rainfall amounts currently do not appear significant enough to
ease current drought conditions in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated through Saturday. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   63  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        58  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  66  82  65  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs