974
FXUS62 KTAE 150801
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Cold front has cleared the southeast Big Bend with the supporting
upper level trough moving off the eastern seaboard. Upstream, mid
level ridging will amplify while trekking slowly east through the
Mid-South. Surface high pressure will be located in the Midwest
which will maintain north to northeast surface winds and filter much
drier and cooler air into the region with PWATs less than 0.5
inches. After waking up this morning with lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s, highs today will be more seasonable with readings in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Following this, lows tonight will generally
fall into the 40s with low 50s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Mid-upper level ridging with high pressure at the surface
gradually sliding east over the Ohio Valley will yield clear and
benign conditions to kick off the short and long term forecast.
Easterly flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned
surface high will aid with moisture return and a gradual warming
trend following the cold front that passed through the area today.
This warming trend will bring our SE AL and SW GA counties into the
mid to upper 70s and our FL counties into the low 80s through
Tuesday. Beginning late Tuesday evening / early Wednesday morning, a
stronger cold front will begin to enter the area as a potent upper
trough deepens notably over the eastern US. This cold front may
interact with the remnants of Tropical Storm Sara with the majority
of our forecast area seeing around 1-2" of meaningful rainfall as a
result. At this time, severe weather is not expected from this cold
front. Most notably with the potent trough aloft, a welcomed cool
down appears possible as high temperatures on Thursday may struggle
to break into the 70s as cooler air filters into the region with
widespread highs in the 60s. Low temperatures Thursday morning will
also see a notable cool down with lows in the 50s, perhaps dropping
into the upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

IFR/LIFR clouds are working south into our southwest Georgia
counties with patches moving towards the Florida panhandle. Timed
this area of clouds out to all TAF sites overnight to be impacted
by clouds, first in our northern TAF sites now then towards
TLH/ECP after 9Z. HREF has a better handle on initializing the
cloud cover and used this in timing as well. General consensus is
breaking back out towards VFR mid/late morning. Winds will be
generally be from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Fresh to strong northerly breezes will continue bringing
advisory conditions to our waters through the remainder of the
morning before tapering off through the afternoon. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Sara may approach our area as a remnant low as it
interacts with a cold front Monday through Wednesday bringing rain
to our waters and possible advisory conditions as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Aside from low dispersions over portions of the area this weekend,
fire weather concerns remain low. High pressure with cooler and
drier air will be in place the next few days. Dispersions will be
favorable today but, due to lighter transport winds heading into the
weekend, dispersions will be less than 20 Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to dissipate near the
northwest Yucatan Peninsula early next week, though its remnant
moisture may make its way toward the forecast area as it interacts
with a cold front early next week through midweek. Currently, around
1-2" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible though
this will likely change given how far from the event we are at this
time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   73  53  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        69  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      69  48  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    73  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  57  72  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Worster