292
FXUS62 KTAE 281713
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

No changes made to the forecast this morning. Light northerly and
northeasterly flow will becoming variable this afternoon and then
westerly with afternoon mixing. A seabreeze is also forecast to
develop and move inland across the coast this afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

A cold front swept through the region earlier this morning. Much
drier air is filtering in as indicated by dew points tumbling into
the 30s. Daytime highs will be a skosh cooler Friday afternoon with
many locations in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure over the
northeastern Gulf will create a weak enough wind to allow a
seabreeze to push inland this afternoon and allow temperatures to
cool off a few degrees. A clear and cool night is ahead Friday night
thanks to the aforementioned surface high overhead. Temperatures are
forecast to tumble into the lower to middle 40s across region. A few
of our cooler spots may see temperatures tumble into the upper 30s
if skies remain crystal clear all night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

A dry cold frontal passage on Saturday with no precipitation and
highs in the mid-70s. This front will usher in a cooler air mass for
Sunday, with highs in the 60s. Highs will gradually moderate back
to the mid-70s by Tuesday. Mid and high-level cloudiness increase on
Monday and Tuesday in advance of the next storm system, but any
precip will hold off until Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Low pressure lifts from the Central Plains States into the Great
Lakes region, dragging a strong cold front through the region on
Wednesday and Wed night. The main concern will be severe weather,
as the progressive nature of the front should limit flood concerns.
Ensembles indicate high shear and decent instability, but there
is uncertainty in how these features overlap. Also indications of
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear, but given
we`re 5 days out, there is less confidence in these features attm.
The SPC Severe Weather Outlook has much of the region north of
I-10 in a 15% risk on Day 7, which is rare at that time range,
and is equivalent to a Slight Risk. Of course, the risk level and
areal extent could change over the next several days, and the
threats and timing will be refined, so please stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period.
light northerly winds turn more westerly this afternoon before
diminishing tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

A cold frontal passage on Saturday will usher in northerly
winds nearing 20 knots at times Saturday night into Sunday,
along with seas of 3 to 4 feet just offshore. Southeast winds
increase Monday night into Tuesday, possibly nearing 20 knots,
especially west of Apalachicola. As a cold front approaches
Tuesday night and moves across the waters Wednesday into
Wednesday night, advisory-level winds of 20 to 25 knots are
possible for small craft, along with strong thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Critically low MinRH values are expected this afternoon with values
between 22 to 27 percent away from the immediate coast. High
pressure in the northeastern Gulf will keep winds relatively light
out of the north this morning before turning more westerly this
afternoon. Humidity improves some Saturday, generally between 25-
30%, but westerly transport winds will increase Saturday afternoon.
Good to excellent dispersions are expected this afternoon across the
Alabama and Georgia districts with fair to good dispersions across
Florida. Good to excellent dispersions are forecast area wide
Saturday afternoon. Mixing heights Friday are forecast to be between
4.5-5.5k ft and 5-6k ft Saturday. Lower mixing heights are expected
Sunday, generally between 4-4.5k ft with dispersions generally fair
to good across all districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days before rain
returns by the middle of next week. The Ochlockonee at Havana and
the Aucilla at Lamont are slowly falling out of action stage. No
hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   71  52  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        73  45  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  42  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    76  39  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  67  51  70  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Reese/Dobbs
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...LF