539
FXUS62 KTAE 061428
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Only minor changes to the forecast this morning to adjust
temperatures and dew points to current conditions. Forecast is on
track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A stationary boundary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will
continue to be the focal point for showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two through today. Precipitable water values (PWATs)
continue to remain around 2 inches, or above the 90th percentile for
early October. Thus, a few pockets of heavy rain rates are possible.
Fortunately, instability is fairly limited, so thunderstorm coverage
should be quite sparse.

Daytime highs are expected to be held down today due to all the
cloud cover and scattered showers, with highs ranging from the mid
70s to low 80s across the region.

Some drier air is expected to move into the area tonight with rain
chances decreasing and overnight lows generally ranging from the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A drier airmass across the area should keep the area nearly rain
free on Monday and Tuesday. Only a slight chance of a light shower
in the far southeast big bend is expected. Afternoon highs will
generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the mid 60s to near
70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The long term period will be dominated by what happens with Milton
in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC forecast takes the center
of the system south of our area across the Florida peninsula by
mid-week. However, the wind field is expected to expand as it
approaches the Florida peninsula. In addition, the forecast cone
does extend into the southeastern Florida Big Bend, so we will
continue to monitor Milton`s progression over the coming days. As
of now, the primary impacts we`re concerned about locally include
rougher marine conditions by mid-week along with worsening beach
and surf conditions. In addition, heavy rain is possible across
the southeastern parts of the Florida Big Bend as Milton nears
depending on the track. Residents should continue to monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Milton on hurricanes.gov, especially
those who are still recovering from Helene. It`s also worth
mentioning that the pressure gradient between Milton in the Gulf
and the surface high to the north could be strong enough to
warrant a Wind Advisory for parts of the area by mid-week,
especially for areas that are still recovering from Helene.

After Milton exits the picture, drier and cooler weather will
prevail for the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected this morning with scattered
showers developing. Low ceilings may persist for much of the day
with some areas struggling to get back to VFR this afternoon. Winds
are expected to be east to northeast today. Another round of low
ceilings is expected tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

East to northeast winds will continue today with cautionary
conditions expected. For tonight, winds may increase enough for a
small craft advisory. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to head east-
northeast to northeast through the middle of the week towards the
Florida peninsula and strengthen into a hurricane. Winds and seas
are forecast to increase even more by mid-week as Milton`s expanding
wind field affects the area. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day until a cold front clears the area by mid to late
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for the next
few days. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
levels, and fuels are currently moist from recent rainfall. An
increase in transport winds could bring some higher dispersions to
the area this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Minor flooding continues along the lower Withlacoochee. Over the
next several days, the flood waves from the Withlacoochee and the
Alapaha will move into the upper Suwannee and progress downstream
through much of next week. Minor flooding is currently forecast
along the middle Suwannee from Luraville downstream, but this won`t
happen until the middle to end of the week. Rainfall totals prior
to Milton will generally be light enough to avoid any additional
river flood concerns.

Regarding Milton, heavy rainfall potential in the southeast Big Bend
will hinge on track and evolution. For now, the Weather Prediction
Center has outlined most of the southeast Big Bend in a Marginal to
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday. However, a moderate
risk clips far southern Dixie county (level 3 of 4). We`ll have to
continue to monitor trends in rainfall placement over the next
several days to get a better idea on any flash flood or heavy rain
potential.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   80  69  86  66 /  50  10   0   0
Panama City   81  70  87  69 /  40  10   0   0
Dothan        77  65  86  64 /  40  10   0   0
Albany        78  65  86  64 /  40   0   0   0
Valdosta      76  67  85  65 /  60  10   0   0
Cross City    79  71  83  69 /  60  20  10   0
Apalachicola  81  72  84  71 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD