892
FXUS62 KTAE 080230
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
930 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows an inland-advancing
deck of sea fog and low stratus over the Big Bend and eastern
Panhandle this evening. However, with inland extent in the Big
Bend, it has been mostly low stratus looking at area webcams. For
now on this update, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory from Bay
County eastward to Wakulla County, then along the coast from
Jefferson County to Dixie County. I do still anticipate the fog to
advance farther inland during the overnight as well as develop
across the Alabama and Georgia Counties, but lower confidence in
timing and coverage stops me from issuing a more expansive Dense
Fog Advisory at this time.

Otherwise, some minor tweaks were made to the temperature grids to
account for current observations.

/Young

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

With the overall pattern largely unchanged from the past several
days, areas of dense fog will be a concern once again tonight,
especially along the coast and much of the Florida Panhandle. A
dense fog advisory will likely be needed for a portion of the area
by later this evening. Otherwise, high temperatures on Saturday will
depend on how fast the morning low cloud cover erodes. Highs are
generally expected to be in the mid to upper 70s after overnight
lows tonight falling into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Dominant zonal flow continues to be the story as we head into the
weekend. Our CWA remains wedged between a high pressure system to
our SE and the jet stream remaining largely over the NE US. With
this, a similar weather pattern to what we have experienced over the
last few days will persist. Expect well above average temperatures
(highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the upper 50s/low 60s)
and overnight/morning time foggy conditions to continue across
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

By next week, a pattern shift that pushes us out of this zonal flow
regime looks to be in store. Several shortwave troughs are forecast
to race near or across the region starting as early as Tuesday.

The first shortwave impulse (around Tuesday/Wednesday) seems at this
point to carry minimal impacts to the region with the axis of
highest precip remaining well to our north. Still, slightly elevated
PoPs can be expected, with the highest PoPs unsurprisingly existing
in our northernmost counties. Currently no changes in temperatures
are expected with this system. Temperatures will remain well above
average across the region, with highs in the high 70s/low 80s and
lows in the high 50s/ low 60s.

A more energetic system is poised to sweep further south into our
CWA towards the end of the forecast period. Confidence remains low
at this point on this system`s exact evolution, but with it, there
are signals for a potential severe weather threat. Specific impacts,
if any, will become clearer as we head into next week. Following the
passage of this system, slightly lower temperatures are currently
forecast, although this is highly dependent on many factors,
including how far south this energy is able to reach, the strength
of the parent low, etc.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Another night of limited visibility due to fog and low cigs is
expected across the region. Have conditions once again approaching
airport minimums at all terminals by early Saturday morning with
slow improvement after 13-14z. VFR conditions should return by
midday on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Surface high pressure nearby maintains fair-weather boating
conditions through the weekend outside of sea fog. The most
susceptible areas are the nearshore waters and Apalachee Bay.
Visibility of 1 nautical mile or less is expected at times and
likely lingers into the afternoon hours. Rain chances return to
the forecast on Monday with the arrival of a frontal system from
the northwest. Stronger, more progressive fronts look to sweep
through the waters later next week. As this occurs, winds and seas
will be on the uptick by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Areas of dense fog will continue to be the biggest concern for the
next several mornings. Dispersions are expected to be a bit higher
the next few afternoons due to higher mixing heights. Relative
humidity levels will remain above critical levels with light
southwesterly surface winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Little, if any, rainfall will occur through Monday. After that, a
series of cold fronts dive into the southeast US. Depending on how
these fronts evolve, whether they stall to the north or a greater
penetration into our CWA, will determine the amount of rainfall
through our area. As it stands currently, higher rainfall amounts
will be north of the tri state region but expect around an inch of
rainfall next week generally through southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia with decreasing amounts towards the Florida Big
Bend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  73  61  75 /   0  10  10   0
Dothan        62  79  61  79 /  20  10  10  10
Albany        60  79  59  79 /  20   0  10  10
Valdosta      60  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    56  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  69  59  70 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for
     FLZ012>015-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Scholl