290
FXUS62 KTAE 191503
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1003 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

An Arctic cold front is making its way through the CWA this
morning. Winds behind the front will be from the northwest with
gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Overall forecast this morning
is on track, with a few adjustments to temperatures which are
expected to continue falling through the day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

An arctic airmass arrives tonight, setting the stage for a
prolonged stretch of dangerous cold temperatures and wind chills
for next week. Confidence has increased in wintry precipitation
affecting the region late Tuesday-early Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

An Arctic front moves through the region today with very cold and
dry air to follow its passage. Associated rainfall will exit to our
east later this morning, but we have still have a few more hours of
training convective bands funneling into the Suwannee Valley.
That part of the SE FL Big Bend remains in a favorable corridor
for locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps a quick spin up.

Breezy NW winds are expected with strong cold-air advection
prompting temperatures to drop as the day progresses despite mostly
clearing skies. High temperatures are likely to be achieved this
morning as opposed to the typical afternoon/early evening - ranging
from 50s to low 60s (warmer as you go SE).

Hazardous cold temperatures and wind chills arrive late tonight into
early tomorrow morning. As a result the following hazards have been
issued:

-A (Hard) Freeze Warning for temperatures at or below 25 degrees
across SE AL and parts of SW GA & the western FL Panhandle - valid 6-
14Z.
-A Cold Weather Advisory for wind chills in the teens to mid low
 20s areawide - valid 3Z-18Z. Note: portions of the inland western
 FL Panhandle approach Extreme Cold criteria of below 15 degrees.

Users are urged to ensure protection of themselves (other people
close to you), pets, plants, and pipes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Monday night)
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Bitterly cold, but DRY weather defines MLK Day through Tuesday.
After widespread sub-freezing temperatures Monday morning, readings
will only increase to the upper 30s to mid 40s - a solid 20 degrees
below normal! Additional hard freeze & cold weather advisory
headlines are expected for Monday night/Tuesday morning as forecast
lows range from mid 20s to low 30s and wind chills bottom out in the
teens and 20s.

Right near the end of the period a slug of moisture attempts to
surge into Apalachee Bay, which prompts slight chance PoP (15-20%)
just offshore from the Forgotten/Nature Coasts and silent PoP
(<15%) slightly further inland. Though not explicitly forecast,
it is possible that non-impactful wintry precipitation brushes
parts of the FL Big Bend towards sunrise when temperatures will be
at or near freezing. The better potential for winter weather is
at the beginning of the long-term period in the next section
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Confidence continues to increase on a highly impactful and
significant winter weather event across the Tri-State region late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Uncertainty remains on the
precipitation type, timing of transitions of ptypes, and
accumulation totals. Beyond the winter event, dangerously cold
temperatures will be arriving today and tonight with nightly
freezes/hard freezes through the week and highs struggling to get
out of the 30s at times.

Longwave trough will be set up across much of the CONUS with a
shortwave trough will move out of the southern Rockies Tuesday
towards the northern Gulf coast Wednesday. In response to this
feature, inverted troughing will sharpen along the southeast Texas
coast with a surface low organizing as the surface trough quickly
moves east into Tuesday night/Wednesday.

Highs Tuesday will be in the low 40s through the wiregrass to upper
40s through the Big Bend. Precip chances enter our western areas
Tuesday afternoon. Initially through the wiregrass it will begin as
cold rain then perhaps transition to snow as temperatures fall from
wetbulbing. Areas of the panhandle and SW GA may see light snow mix
in the late afternoon.

Details get more complicated Tuesday night. Depending on the track
and intensity of the surface trough/low pressure will have
implications on the ptype. A warm nose aloft associated with the
system will add the icy aspect potential (freezing rain/sleet) to
the ptype forecast challenge. The cooler air and wintry mix line
will edge south through the night Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning reaching the southeast Big Bend before the low tracks east
and precipitation chances come to an end for Wednesday.

Precipitation chances continue to increase for this time period and
the dry and cold forecast scenario is now an outlier. Therefore,
confidence is high for widespread precipitation Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning with chances well into the 60-90% range.
Confidence in winter precipitation has also continued to increase.
NBM probs for at least 1 inch snowfall north of I10 is 30-60% and
freezing rain probs of at least 0.01 inches is 30-50% along and
south of I-10 in the FL Big Bend and adjacent southwest Georgia.
Details will continue to be adjusted as we get closer to the
event, as we get more high res model solutions. This event has the
potential to be a significant winter weather event with
significant impacts to roads and infrastructure, in addition to
the cold weather and its own impacts to vulnerable populations and
property (4 Ps - People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants).

Highs Wednesday, especially if there is icing or snow on the ground,
may not get out of the 30s for most locations north of I-10. The
cold dome of high pressure moves off the DelMarVa coast and loses
its grip late this week. A weak boundary does move through during
that time frame with a more modified high pressure working into
the southeast this weekend. Temperatures gradually moderate
northward into the 50s for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

SHRA is coming to an end at the TAF sites with multi-layered
cloud decks left behind, mostly low MVFR but some patchy VFR as
well which makes the next few hours of the TAFs challenging.
Heading into the afternoon,a general improvement to VFR will occur
as well as decreasing clouds with winds clocking to the
northwest. Gusty winds, on the order of 20-30 knots, will
overspread the region from west to east today and remain gusty
into the evening hours before possibly decreasing in the overnight
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Small Craft Advisories are hoisted for today through early Monday
for the coastal waters in the wake of a strong cold frontal
passage. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will decrease from
west to east through the day. Additional Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed during mid-week as low pressure moves south
of the coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Wetting rains exit the region this morning, which is then followed
by a surge of cold and dry air from the NW behind the passage of an
Arctic front. Strong post-frontal northwesterlies usher high
dispersions this afternoon.

Expect widespread sub-freezing temperatures Monday morning with
highs only ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s. Hazardous wind
chills will accompany these conditions, making you feel much colder.
Relative humidity is forecast to tank into the 20s away from the
immediate coast.

On Tuesday, precipitation chances increase and looks
to be a wintry mix between cold rain, snow, and/or sleet that
afternoon for the NW portions of the Tri-State area before likely
changing over to pure liquid rain when temperatures rise above
freezing. Greater potential for more widespread frozen precipitation
exists Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

A widespread soaking rain was observed yesterday and overnight
with the most persistent rainfall across the Suwannee Valley since
last night. Multiple ambient weather stations in the SE FL Big
Bend reported at least 3 inches over the course of several hrs.
These amounts have likely resulted in some ponding of water or
nuisance flooding, but the overall net effect should be beneficial
in helping alleviate moderate drought conditions. Bands of
showers continue to funnel in those affected locations as of
early this morning before exiting by midday.

We turn dry Monday-Tuesday, followed by likely wet weather late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Chances of wintry mixed
precipitation have increased. However, it is still difficult to
pin down the type (freezing rain, cold rain, snow, sleet), timing
of changeovers, and the exact placement. We will have to monitor
additional trends late in the week for potentially more
precipitation.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  29  43  31 /  10   0   0  10
Panama City   62  29  44  31 /  10   0   0  10
Dothan        56  25  40  26 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  25  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  28  43  30 /  20   0   0  10
Cross City    67  32  46  33 /  90   0   0  10
Apalachicola  63  29  44  33 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to
     1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for
     FLZ007>010.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>128-142-
     144.

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for ALZ065>069.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Monday for GMZ730-765.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for
     GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3