586
FXUS62 KTAE 101749
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
149 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The current forecast is on track with no significant changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A tropical wave, or an inverted trough, over the eastern Gulf early
this morning will continue slowly west through tonight. Low-mid
level flow across the region will gradually veer around from E-NE to
SE-S. Though our air mass is already very moist early this morning,
the turn of the flow will pump up even moister air that stretches
from SW FL up to the GA coast.

For now, low-level easterly flow is driving shallow convection
(showers) onshore the Georgia coast. This will spread westward
across south Georgia early this afternoon, then southeast Alabama
late this afternoon. Meanwhile, deeper convection containing a bit
more thunder will be aided late this afternoon by extra lift along
the leading edge of the seabreeze over our FL counties. Though it
may blur in with the seabreeze, there may also be a warm-frontal
like focus lifting north this afternoon as low-mid level flow takes
on a more southerly component on the east side of that tropical wave
axis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A tropical wave traversing westward across the Northern Gulf
reinforces the anomalously moist airmass over the region. Expect
abundant cloud cover with widespread showers and thunderstorms
capable of localized nuisance and/or flash flooding during the short-
term period. Axis of greatest precipitation begins offshore/along
the coast early Monday before spreading inland during the afternoon-
early evening as diurnal instability kicks in. Overall, the highest
rain chances (55-75+ percent) focuses most over the I-10 corridor
over the FL Panhandle.

Inland convection wanes, then shifts offshore Monday night into
Tuesday morning. As the tropical wave tracks farther west, attendant
rich moisture gets tugged from SE to NW, and thus makes for another
round of wet weather on Tuesday. Locations along/west of the
Apalachicola & Flint River Valley have the most robust afternoon PoP
(65-85%). Heavy rainfall will once again be a concern with Monday`s
conditions playing a potential role on flash-flood guidance. Stay
tuned. Forecast high temperatures range from mid 80s to low 90s
while lows only drop to the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Subtropical ridging becomes the main synoptic feature influencing
our local weather the remainder of the work week. Global models are
in good agreement on 500-mb heights around 594 dm, which flirts with
daily max values based on SPC sounding climatology for KTLH.
Therefore, expect a reverting to more typical summertime diurnally
driven convection (i.e., seabreeze initiation) and building heat.
High temperatures increase to low/mid 90s with lows staying in the
sultry 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Stubborn MVFR cigs should scatter out by 20Z today. TEMPO groups
remain for brief TSRA induced MVFR at TLH and VLD with a PROB30
at ABY and ECP. Low cigs will tend to overspread the terminals
again overnight generally from northeast to southwest w/at least
MVFR - Greatest potential for IFR is at ABY, DHN, and VLD with
LIFR possible at DHN in addition to fog, which may also briefly
affect VLD. A slow lift to MVFR Monday morning for all terminals
with TSRA reinforcing restrictions at TLH mainly after 12Z and
possibly at ECP later in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

AM Observations:

Panama City Tide Station (8729108) - sustained NE
winds near 7 kts.

Panama City Beach Tide Station (8729210) - sustained NE winds 7 kts.

West Tampa Buoy (42036) - sustained ESE winds near 10 kts, 2-ft
seas, and a dominant period of 4 seconds.

CWF Synopsis: Widespread maritime convection is expected the next
couple of days with the passage of a tropical wave across the
Northern Gulf. Outside of thunderstorms, light easterly winds
initially prevail before shifting more out of the south heading into
Monday. Following the tropical wave`s departure around mid-week, a
building ridge of high pressure prompts a west to southwest wind
shift in addition to a reverting of typical summertime diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms mainly overnight and the morning
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A very moist air mass will support above normal shower and
thunderstorm activity through Monday or Tuesday, then diminishing to
a more typically scattered coverage of storms around mid-week. The
abundance of clouds  and showers this afternoon will set the stage
for pockets of poor afternoon dispersion, mainly for Georgia
districts along and east of the I-75 corridor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Wet weather affects the Tri-State area the next couple days thanks
to a tropical wave tracking west across the Northern Gulf. Heavy
rain capable of localized nuisance and/or flash flooding will be in
play. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is in place nearly areawide for
the Day 1 and 2 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook. From about mid-
week, onward, precipitation trends return to more of a typical
summertime pattern. The 7-day QPF shows widespread 1-2.5 inches.
Values are subject to change in subsequent values. Riverine
flooding is not anticipated at this time. The St Marks River
Newport on Old Magnolia Rd is forecast to remain in action stage
the next few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  75  84  74 /  60  40  80  40
Panama City   89  76  84  77 /  50  50  80  60
Dothan        86  73  85  73 /  40  10  80  50
Albany        86  74  87  73 /  50  30  70  40
Valdosta      88  73  89  73 /  70  50  60  30
Cross City    91  73  91  74 /  80  70  60  30
Apalachicola  86  78  84  78 /  60  60  80  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3