Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
103 FXUS66 KSTO 071020 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 220 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the morning give way to seasonable temperatures and calmer weather through the end of the week. A more unsettled weather pattern then arrives from the weekend into early next week, bringing increasing precipitation chances and a few periods of gusty winds. .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies are evident across interior NorCal via latest GOES-West satellite imagery this morning. Given notably lighter winds than at this time yesterday, overnight humidity recovery is expected to be more appreciable, although some higher elevations along the foothills and within the coastal range may still see max recovery in the mid 20s to mid 30s. As a result, elevated to critical weather conditions look to persist, with the Red Flag Warning remaining in effect until 7 am PST. Otherwise, with limited to no cloud cover expected overnight, low temperatures this morning look to fall into the low to mid 40s for the Delta, Valley, and foothills alongside 20s to 30s at higher elevations, equating to a roughly 10 degree drop off from the past few mornings. The remainder of the week ahead is then expected to be influenced by ridging aloft. This pattern will keep temperatures seasonable and winds light and diurnal/terrain driven. Resultant high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are expected for the Delta, Valley, and foothills, while 50s to 60s prevail at higher elevations. Ensemble guidance still continues to indicate a week shortwave progressing through the region over the weekend. While overall forcing will be present, available moisture will likely be limited, with generally a 10% to 20% chance of isolated showers across the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent higher terrain on Saturday and Sunday. Resultant probabilities of precipitation exceeding 0.1" in these areas have dwindled down to 5% to 15% at this time as well. Otherwise, this system should introduce a slight cool down and locally breezy onshore winds elsewhere. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)... Pacific frontal system moves through Monday into Tuesday bringing widespread rain, mountain snow, and some gusty wind. Slight chance of an afternoon/evening thunderstorm over the northern half of the Sacramento Valley Monday. WPC storm total liquid QPF advertising 1-2 tenths in the Northern San Joaquin Valley trending up to around 3/4 of an inch in the N Sac Valley. Liquid amounts of around a half an inch to 2 inches forecast in the foothills and mountains. Locally up to a foot of snow possible over higher mountain elevations. Upper ridging follows the wave passage Wednesday with dry weather likely over interior NorCal. Upstream baroclinic zone is slow to advance as it encounters downstream ridging, NBM looks a little too progressive with precip more likely Thursday than Wednesday with overall lighter QPF than the system Mon/Tue. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Areas of NW-NEly sfc wind up to 20 kts with lcl gusts to 30 kts possible in the fthills/mtns til 18z Thu, otherwise sfc wind generally below 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Northern San Joaquin Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft. && $$