306
FXUS01 KWBC 171856
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 18 2025 - 00Z Sun Apr 20 2025

...Big temperatures changes expected across the Central to
Southern Plains into the Central Rockies with much colder
temperatures and the threat of heavy spring snows through the
Central Rockies...

...Critical to Extreme fire weather threat for the Southern to
Central High Plains...

...Severe weather threat Thursday evening/night from eastern
Nebraska into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Lakes region...

...Heavy rain, flooding and severe thunderstorm risks increase
from the Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
weekend...

...Much above average temperatures from the Mississippi Valley to
the East coast...


Big weather changes will continue from the Central Rockies into
the Central to Southern Plains over the next few days as a strong
cold front presses southward across these areas.  Below average
temperatures over the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies region
Thursday will continue to surge southward Thursday night, Friday
and into Saturday across the Central Rockies and Central to
Southern Plaisn.  High temperatures are likely to be 30+ degrees
colder on Friday compared to Thursday across much of the Central
Rockies into Central Plains, with similar temperatures drops
expected Saturday compared to Friday across the Southern to
Central Plains into the Southern Rockies.  These colder
temperatures will also be accompanied by accumulating heavy Spring
season snows through the Central Rockies where snowfall
accumulations of 6 to 12+ inches are likely.  Winter storm
warnings and winter weather advisories are currently in effect
from southern Montana, large portions of Wyoming into central to
western Colorado, affecting over a million people.

Ahead of the strong cold front pushing southward through the
Plains. Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions will persist
across portions of the Southwest into the Southern and Central
High Plains from a combination of gusty winds, dry conditions and
low relative humidities.  Red Flag warnings are currently in
effect from eastern Arizona, across all of New Mexico, Southwest
to West Texas, western Oklahoma, western Kansas and southeast
Colorado, affecting over 8.5 million people.

The strong cold front pressing south into the Southern Plains will
initially not have a lot of precipitation associated with it.
However, by Friday evening/Friday night increasing moisture values
along and ahead of this front will help spawn an increasingly
active shower and thunderstorm pattern from North Texas, across
central to eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri and Mid
Mississippi Valleys.  This heavy rainfall threat will likely
continue through the upcoming weekend, with increasing risks of
flooding, especially from far eastern Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas, central to southern Missouri and southern Illinois,
where the upcoming heavy rain threat will overlap where soils are
still saturated and stream flows above average from the previous
heavy rainfall event.  In addition to the heavy rain and flooding
threat, the threat of severe thunderstorms will also be increasing
from the Southern Plain, northeastward into the Lower Missouri
Valley, Mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday.

Prior to the heavy rain/flooding and severe weather threat
developing from the Southern Plains, northeastward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, thunderstorms are expected to
become very active Thursday evening into Thursday night from
eastern Nebraska, eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Upper Great Lakes region.  Rainfall amounts are not expected to be
very heavy across these regions, with only a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for portions of southern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin.  Severe weather wise, large hail will be the greatest
risk from these thunderstorms, with lesser risks of high winds and
tornadoes.

While temperatures drop significantly across the Central to
Southern Rockies and Central to Southern Plains, the opposite will
be occurring from the Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S.
Across these areas, high temperatures over the next few days are
expected to be much above average with reading 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than average.


Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$