953
FXUS01 KWBC 082005
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 09 2025 - 00Z Fri Jul 11 2025

...The Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic will see the potential for
severe weather and flooding rainfall over the next few days...

...Severe thunderstorms look likely over the Northern to the
Central Plains Wednesday and Thursday...

...Storms along a stalling frontal boundary across the Northeast
will cool temperatures; the desert Southwest will be heating up as
high temperatures in the range of 110-118 deg prompt Extreme Heat
Warnings into Thursday.

An approaching cold front will stall across the Mid-Atlantic for
Wednesday and Thursday. In conjunction with the front serving as a
lifting mechanism, rich moisture at the surface will further
facilitate an atmopshere capable of supporting high rainfall
rates. The Weather Prediction Center has QPF forecasts of 3-4
inches in the next 3 days near southern Virginia, and 2-3 inches
from Delaware to the Jersey Shore and around North Carolina.
Multiple waves of storms and high rainfall rates means flash
flooding is possible. Therefore, WPC has a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic to North Carolina on
Wednesday and Thursday. Shifting to the Plains, another lingering
frontal boundary, ample surface moisture and instability, and the
arrival of a mid-level trough will set the stage for potential
storm clusters capable of high rainfall rates. WPC has issued a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall centered around Nebraska and
Iowa to account for flooding potential on Thursday afternoon.

For the severe weather threat, the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas
will see hazards of wet micro-bursts and damaging wind gusts.
Storms may align in linear organizations as shear remains
favorable enough. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) for damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic and North
Carolina on Wednesday and a somewhat smaller Marginal Risk on
Thursday. For the Plains, the Dakotas southward to the central
Plains may see severe hail potential according to the Storm
Prediction Center and a few damaging winds are also possible. This
is a result of high shear and abundant CAPE. Then, on Thursday, a
similar pattern of a trough entering the Plains with abundant
instability will support more large hail potential. For fire
weather concerns, the Storm Prediction Center has a Elevated fire
weather risk across the West, including the Cascades to the Great
Basin, as dry fuels and gusty southwesterly surface winds provide
favorable conditions for fire spread.

Upper level ridging will remain planted across the Southwest.
Temperatures will be hazardous to the public and hot weather
precautions should be taken through at least Thursday. High
temperatures from the California valleys to New Mexico may enter
the low 100s.The deserts of Arizona and California are under a
Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday with high temperatures
nearing record highs and approaching the mid 110s F. The Northeast
should see the mini heat-wave end as a front swings into the area
with rainfall. The Southeast will see typical warmth and humidity
for July, but feel like temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s
could still prompt heat risk hazards to the public.


Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$