670
FXUS01 KWBC 300801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 02 2024

...Dangerously hot conditions will continue for the Southeast
through the end of the weekend, while simmering heat builds across
the southern Plains and California`s Central Valley early this
week...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat for the East Coast
today...

...Showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners/Southwest over
the next few days; wet weather returns to the upper Midwest by
Monday...


The transition to July will continue to feature areas of
potentially dangerous heat throughout parts of the southern U.S.
and California. At the upper levels, higher pressure over the
southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will focus much of
the heat over the south-central U.S. over the next few days before
ridging begins to build toward the West Coast by Tuesday. This
equates to high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s today from
the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. This level of heat and
the potential for maximum temperatures into the low 100s are
expected to remain throughout the south-central U.S. through at
least Tuesday, while much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic cools
off behind a cold front. Overnight temperatures are expected to be
quite warm over the southern Plains and not offer much time for
relief after scorching daytime temperatures. In fact, several
daily warm minimum temperature records could be broken/tied over
the next few days in this region. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories currently stretch from Texas to New Jersey. For
California, a dangerous and long-duration heat event is forecast
to begin on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the triple
digits, which has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches to
be posted. These readings will impact interior valley locations
and areas away from the immediate coastline. Residents and
visitors are urged to follow proper heat safety as this level of
heat could be deadly for anyone without effective cooling.

Thunderstorms and instances of heavy rain are forecast to impact
parts of the East Coast, Midwest, and Four Corners/Southwest over
the next few days. A potent cold front ushering in a comfortable
airmass to the Great Lakes and Midwest today will continue to trek
towards the East Coast while sparking numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A few storms could turn severe between Maine and
the Carolinas, with damaging wind gusts the primary weather
hazard. Heavy rain could also lead to isolated flash floods
between New England and the Southeast. This same frontal boundary
is anticipated to focus additional thunderstorm chances on Monday
across the Southeast. The flash flood threat is expected to be
highest across coastal South Carolina and southeast Georgia, where
slow-moving storms could produce a few inches of rainfall in a
very short period of time.

The other notable weather system impacting the Lower 48 at the
midway point of the year is forecast to push from the
Intermountain West to the upper Midwest by early this week.
Lingering rainfall chances and the potential for flash flooding is
expected to continue as the upper trough traversing the western
U.S. maintains a fresh flow of moisture-rich air into the
Southwest and southern Rockies. Flash Flood Watches remain in
effect across parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah. On the dry
side of the system, gusty winds and low relative humidity are
anticipated to create Critical Fire Weather across parts of the
central Great Basin today. Meanwhile, areas of robust
thunderstorms could turn severe by this evening throughout the
northern High Plains as an area of low pressure develops. This low
pressure system is then forecast to spread unsettled weather into
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible, with an elevated threat for tornadoes,
damaging wind gusts, and large hail over parts of central
Nebraska. For the upper Midwest, any heavy rain will be unwelcome
as ongoing river flooding impacts the region. Any additional
rainfall could exacerbate flooding concerns, with the potential
for numerous thunderstorms creating an increasing flash flood risk
for this part of the country. As the system continues to progress
eastward on Tuesday and an attached cold front slows its forward
progress over the Midwest and central Plains, additional chances
for severe weather and heavy rain are expected to continue.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$