508
FXUS01 KWBC 162001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 00Z Sat May 17 2025 - 00Z Mon May 19 2025

...Severe thunderstorm outbreak expected to linger into tonight
for portions of the mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
along with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding...

...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will increase the potential
for flash flooding across portions of northern New England through
Saturday...

...Record-breaking heat expected to continue across southern
Texas, with above average temperatures extending along the Gulf
Coast into the Southeast through the weekend...

...Rounds of severe weather expected this weekend across the
southern to central Great Plains...

An active pattern will continue through this weekend across the
lower 48 with threats of severe storms, flash flooding, heat,
gusty winds and increased fire weather risks. A deep surface low,
tied to a robust upper level low over the Upper Midwest, will
continue to support strong wind gusts across the northern Plains
into Nebraska through this evening where winds have been reported
between 60-70 mph (locally higher) Friday afternoon. Winds will
subside across the region overnight tonight but wind gusts up to
50 mph will be possible across portions of the Midwest on Saturday
as the storm system moves east. A Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5)
of severe thunderstorms is in place from the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers into portions of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley through this evening and overnight. Concerns for
strong, potentially long-track tornadoes along with large hail and
damaging straight line winds, exists for the region. A threat of
flash flooding will be increased for some of these same areas into
the central Appalachians through early Saturday morning as a
second round of thunderstorms moves across portions of Kentucky
and Tennessee, which were impacted by heavy rain earlier on Friday.

As the storm system over the central to eastern U.S. tracks
eastward on Saturday, renewed threats for heavy rain in New
England will exist due to multiple rounds of heavy rain, adding
onto locally heavy rainfall that fell on Friday. Back to the west,
severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of Oklahoma,
Texas and Arkansas in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary
and ahead of a dryline. These same threats will setup again on
Sunday, a bit northward compared to Saturday, over Nebraska,
Kansas and Oklahoma. Behind the dryline, gusty winds and low
relative humidity values will setup a Critical Risk of fire
weather from southeastern Arizona into southern New Mexico and far
western Texas on Saturday.

Across the southern U.S., temperatures will be roughly 10 to 20
degrees above average with record-breaking high temperatures
possible over parts of South Texas. Highs in the mid-90s to 100s
over inland portions of South Texas could break several daytime
maximum temperature records over the weekend. Above average warmth
and high heat indices will also exist across the Gulf Coast States
into the Southeast, south of a stalled frontal boundary to the
north.

Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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