828
FXUS01 KWBC 052004
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 06 2025 - 00Z Fri Aug 08 2025

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible in the Southeast...

...Air Quality Alerts from the Upper Midwest to parts of the
Northeast...

...Heat to be at dangerous levels across the Desert Southwest this
week...

...Critical fire risk for portions of the Great Basin to the
Central Rockies...


A stalled front draped across the Southeast and central Gulf Coast
will focus thunderstorm activity along it`s boundary over the next
couple of days. Some storms may produce flash flooding, which is
illustrated by our days 1 and 2 slight risks (at least 15% chance)
of excessive rainfall. Totals of 1-3 inches with isolated higher
amounts are likely by Thursday evening. Shortwave energy followed
by a stronger upper-level low moving through the northern tier of
the country will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest through Thursday. Some
storms may turn severe, which is why the Storm Prediction Center
issued a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for parts
of the Northern Plains tonight and then again on Thursday.

High pressure aloft is compressing Canadian wildfire smoke close
to the surface over parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and
Northeast. Air quality alerts continue to be in place through this
evening. Conditions should improve a bit on Wednesday. In the
meantime, it is recommended that, when possible, you avoid
strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease
and respiratory diseases such as asthma. Speaking of fires, in the
West, hot, dry and windy conditions will generate a threat for
fires over the next few days. SPC issued critical fire risk areas
for parts of central-southern Utah, eastern Nevada, northern
Arizona and western Colorado through Wednesday.

Expect hot temperatures this week across the Desert Southwest,
with the peak of the most intense heat by mid-week. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-110s and some daily
temperature records are likely through Friday. The most
significant heat is forecast to be across central and southern
Arizona where widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is expected.
Widespread Major to locally Extreme HeatRisk will also extend into
southern California, central and southern New Mexico, and western
Texas throughout the rest of the week.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$