620
FXUS01 KWBC 052000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 06 2024 - 00Z Tue Oct 08 2024

...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the
Southwest through the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week...

...Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast to persist
through this evening across the central Rockies and into the
central Plains...

...Tropical Storm Milton forms over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
and is expected to steadily intensify as it moves northeastward...

...Rainfall well ahead of Tropical Storm Milton will arrive across
the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing increasing concerns for
flooding...

A record-breaking late-season heat wave will continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into early next week across central
and southern California and the Desert Southwest as a ridge of
high pressure aloft persists over the region. Forecast highs will
once again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of the
immediate coastal areas of central and southern California, with
high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the
interior portions of the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily
record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are expected to
occur across the region going through Monday. Heat-related
advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level of
major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate
air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending greater time
outdoors. After a brief period of more seasonable temperatures to
the north following a cold frontal passage, highs will trend above
average again for most of the rest of the Intermountain West on
Sunday and these very warm temperatures will also spread east out
into the Plains early next week. In fact, by Monday and Tuesday,
some areas of the northern Plains are expected to see high
temperatures reach 20 degrees above average.

Very warm and windy conditions over areas of the central Rockies
and out across the central Plains going through this evening just
south of a cold front will also be maintaining dangerous fire
weather conditions, which should improve later tonight and on
Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from
northern Colorado, southern Wyoming through central Nebraska and
southern South Dakota in a Critical Risk of fire weather (level
2/3). Widespread Red Flag Warnings cover much of this region due
to wildfire risk. Meanwhile, farther east, greater moisture out
ahead of the same cold front will lead to areas of some showers
and thunderstorms across the Upper Great Lakes region going
through this evening and the overnight period. A Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) has been introduced by the Storm
Prediction Center for northern Wisconsin and parts of the U.P. of
Michigan. Some areas of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible across these areas. On Sunday, as the cold front moves
east into the Lower Great Lakes region and parts of the Upper Ohio
Valley, showers and thunderstorms will be expected here. A Slight
Risk of severe weather has also been depicted on Sunday for
eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York where a
threat of some large hail and damaging wind gusts will exist.

Tropical Storm Milton has formed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to gradually move
off to the northeast over the next few days while steadily
intensifying. Areas of locally heavy rain are expected to arrive
though across the Florida Peninsula and Keys well ahead of the
intensifying storm as moisture pooling along a front coupled with
proximity of a separate area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico helps to concentrate areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Coastal areas of the central
and southern parts of the Florida Peninsula may see locally
several inches of rain just through Monday, and this will lead to
an increasing threat for areas of flooding. The Weather Prediction
Center has locally depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
(level 2/4) as a result. For the very latest on Tropical Storm
Milton, please consult the latest National Hurricane Center
advisories.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$