637
FXUS01 KWBC 121953
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 13 2025 - 00Z Wed Oct 15 2025

...Coastal storm continues to bring heavy rain, coastal flooding.
high surf, dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds to much of the
East Coast...

...Heavy rain and flash flood risk continues for the
Southwest/Four Corners region as remnant tropical moisture
lingers...

...Pacific system to bring coastal/lower elevation heavy rain to
California with heavy snow for the Sierras...

A strong low currently off the coast of the Carolinas will
continue to bring significant impacts to much of the East Coast
today into Monday. Heavy rainfall continues today along the coast
of the Carolinas, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) in effect for scattered instances of flash flooding. More
isolated instances of flash flooding will also be possible along
the coast of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England, with the
threat for southern New England lingering into Monday. Coastal
Flood-related Advisories stretch from northern Florida to New
England. The greatest risk will be along the Mid-Atlantic coast
where the combination of strong onshore winds, high surf, and
strong astronomical tides are leading to major coastal flooding.
Flooded roads and inundated structures are possible along the
waterfront. High surf is expected for most East Coast beaches
which will generate strong, dangerous rip currents and likely lead
to areas of beach erosion. Damaging wind gusts remain possible
along the coastal Mid-Atlantic and southern New England which may
lead to scattered power outages.

An energetic upper-trough entrenched over the western U.S.
continues to help trigger rounds of thunderstorms across the
Southwest/Four Corners region. Remnant tropical moisture from
Raymond in the Pacific also lingers in the region, helping to
contribute to locally heavy downpours and the potential for
multiple inches of rainfall. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for portions of central/southern Arizona and
southwestern New Mexico today and Monday, and for southwestern
Colorado on Monday, for the threat of some scattered instances of
flash flooding. Storm coverage and the risk for heavy rainfall
should begin trending downward by Tuesday, though some isolated
instances of flash flooding will remain possible, particularly for
portions of central/southern New Mexico.

This upper-trough is also bringing widespread precipitation across
much of the northern Rockies/Great Basin, with moderate lower
elevation rains and heavy high elevation snow. Winter-weather
related Advisories remain in effect for tonight as several inches
of additional snowfall is expected. Snow may also mix in for the
higher mountain valleys, though any accumulations should remain
light. Meanwhile, additional upper-energy is diving southward
along the West Coast, helping to reinforce the upper-trough and
bring a Pacific frontal system down the coast the next couple of
days. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible for the
Pacific Northwest today, and into northern/central California
Monday and southern California Tuesday. Upslope areas along the
coastal ranges and Sierra could see some isolated instances of
flash flooding. There is a locally higher risk for more scattered
flash flooding for burn scars along the Transverse ranges, and a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is now in effect for Tuesday.
For higher elevations, heavy snow continues today for the
Cascades, and will move into the Sierra Nevada Monday-Tuesday,
where up to 1-2 feet of snow will be possible.

Elsewhere, an upper-wave/surface front will bring some showers to
the Upper Midwest through tonight, with some thunderstorms across
the central/southern Plains over the next couple of days. There
will be a stark contrast in temperatures across the central U.S.,
as areas ahead of the wavering front will remain well above
average, with highs into the 70s/80s and even some 90s, and much
colder temperatures in the 40s and 50s to the north. Widespread
Frost/Freeze-related Advisories are in effect for much of the
northern Plains as temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday
morning. The West will remain well below average with
upper-troughing entrenched overhead. Forecast highs are generally
in the 50s, with 60s for California and 80s in the Desert
Southwest. Highs along the East Coast will vary around average
Fall conditions, with 50s and 60s from the Mid-Atlantic north and
60s and 70s from the Carolinas south.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$