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FXUS01 KWBC 060844
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025

...Slow-moving thunderstorms will lead to additional threat of
localized flash flooding over saturated grounds in central Texas...

...Center of Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall over
northeastern South Carolina with heavy rain, strong to gale force
winds, and the threat of flash flooding across nearby coastal
plain...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes followed by rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the northern and central High Plains...

...Heat and humidity will shift from the Great Lakes to the East
Coast as heat begins to build across the interior western U.S.
through the next couple of days ...

As a small-scale mid-level vortex begins to collapse and dips
southward through South Texas toward Mexico early this morning,
much of the flood-ravaged region of central Texas should expect a
lessening threat of widespread torrential rainfall.  However,
given the already saturated grounds and abundant moisture
remaining in the area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be
expected to develop at any moment in the area. With weak winds
aloft, any thunderstorms that develop will be moving very slowly,
which would lead to heavy downpours to linger over the same
locations for relatively long duration, resulting in a continued
threat of flash flooding scattered across the flood-sensitive
region of central Texas today.  By this evening, these
thunderstorms are expected to taper off for a more quiet night
tonight into Monday morning.  Monday should see some more isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to pop during the heat of the day
across central Texas and into Oklahoma before tapering off during
Monday evening.

Tropical Storm Chantal is currently making landfall over
northeastern South Carolina early this morning.  Bands of squally
thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall and strong to gale force
winds are expected to overspread the coastal plains of North
Carolina into eastern South Carolina today, where totals of 2-4
inches, locally upwards of 6" possible. These rainfall amounts may
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.  Chantal is
forecast to steadily weaken to a remnant low as it moves further
inland through North Carolina by Monday morning.  Showers and
embedded thunderstorms are expected to become less widespread
across North Carolina on Monday but some isolated heavy downpours
and instances of flash flooding are expected to spread northward
and could reach into southern Virginia.  In addition to flash
flooding, life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected
along the Atlantic coast from Florida northward to the
Mid-Atlantic states over the next couple of days.

Across the northern tier, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
gradually progress eastward through the Midwest and the Great
Lakes today in connection with the passage of a wave of low
pressure riding along a slow-moving frontal boundary through today
into tonight. By Monday, the front will continue its slow eastward
motion toward New England and Ohio Valley where scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase, with some isolated
flash flooding instances possible.

Across the Rockies, ejections of upper-level shortwave troughs
will lead to rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms downstream.
Storms are also expected in moist upslope flow along the High
Plains.  The first round of these storms is in progress this
morning across the northern and central High Plains.  The second
round is forecast to re-fire this evening across the central High
Plains and adjacent central Plains.  The third round is forecast
for later on Monday into early on Tuesday across the north-central
Plains where the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risks of
severe weather in effect where tornadoes, large hail, and high
winds are the main threats.  Isolated flash flooding is possible
as well.  Additional storms are possible through the southern High
Plains today and Monday, with isolated flash flooding possible.
Elsewhere, daily scattered thunderstorms are forecast along the
Florida and central Gulf Coasts. The West should be mostly dry.

Hot and muggy weather is expected to spread and expand eastward
from the Great Lakes to the East Coast during the next couple of
days ahead of the slow-moving front and tropical moisture from
Chantal moving into the mid-Atlantic.  High temperatures are
forecast to climb into the low to mid-90s with high humidity
levels in these areas.  Most of the region is under Moderate to
Major Heat Risk, including many of the major population centers,
indicating a level of heat that can impact anyone without adequate
access to air conditioning or hydration, especially those groups
more sensitive to heat. Temperatures are also expected to climb
across much the West, particularly for the interior Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin and in the Desert Southwest, after
more comfortable, below average conditions to start the holiday
weekend. Temperatures will remain cooler and below average Sunday
across much of the northern tier of the country from the northern
Rockies to the Upper Midwest following a cold front passage, with
highs in the upper 60s to low 80s. Temperatures will be generally
seasonable southward through the Plains with some lingering below
average conditions into the southern Plains given precipitation
and cloudiness in the region.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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