560
FXUS01 KWBC 070801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...Severe weather expected from the southern Plains to the
Carolinas Saturday and across portions of the Central and Eastern
U.S. on Sunday...

...Heavy showers capable of producing scattered flash flooding
expected across portions of the Mid-South and southern New England
Saturday...

...Significant heat continues across the Gulf Coast states and
builds in the West through the weekend...


Deep moisture and strong surface heating along a wavy frontal
boundary will set the stage for numerous clusters of strong to
severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains eastward to the
Carolinas today. These clusters of storms will have the potential
to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts, particularly from the
Mid-South to the southern Appalachians. To highlight this threat,
the Storm Prediction Center has issued a broad Slight Risk (level
2/5) that stretches from south-central Oklahoma and northeast
Texas to the Carolinas. The Storm Prediction Center has also
outlined a targeted Enhanced Risk (level 3/5), mainly for portions
of eastern Oklahoma, central Arkansas, southern Tennessee,
northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia.
While strong and damaging winds are the primary concerns from
today`s storms, large hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot
be ruled out. On Sunday, the risk of severe weather will generally
remain across similar parts of the central and eastern U.S.;
however, severe thunderstorms will be the most likely across
southern Oklahoma, northern Texas, and the Ark-La-Tex late Sunday
afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of
80-100 mph, and very large hail are the greatest threats with
these storms. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) to highlight this potential.

In addition to severe weather hazards, the clusters of
thunderstorms that develop along the wavy frontal boundary will
also be efficient rainfall producers. Given plenty of moisture to
work with and the potential for storms to repeatedly track over
the same areas multiple times, scattered instances of flash
flooding will be a concern, particularly across the Mid-South.
Storms will also be capable of downpours across parts of southern
New England as well. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) is forecast for
both areas to account for this favorable heavy rainfall setup. On
Sunday, similar to the greatest severe weather risk area, the
highest flash flood threat will shift to the southern Plains,
where additional complexes of drenching strong to severe
thunderstorms are likely to move through.

Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend across the Gulf
Coast states where oppressive humidity ahead of a slow-moving
frontal boundary will combine with temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s to create a large area of Major to Extreme HeatRisk.
Building heat will also be on the rise across interior portions of
the West, especially the Pacific Northwest, where high
temperatures nearing the triple digits will threaten records
Sunday into Monday. Farther south across the lower desert valleys
of the Southwest, high temperatures well into the 100s to 110s
will make for a scorching weekend with little relief in sight.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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