170
FXUS01 KWBC 280747
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Aug 30 2025

...Widespread showers and storms to persist over portions of the
Rockies and High Plains...

...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across portions of Lower
Arkansas and Lower Mississippi Valleys; scattered showers in the
Great Lakes and Northeast...

...Early-autumn preview continues throughout much of the eastern
U.S.; cooler due to showers and clouds in the Rockies; still hot
in the Pacific Northwest & southern Texas...

While the busy weather pattern over the Southwest begins to wind
down, the monsoon moisture responsible for the busy first half of
the week in the Southwest will head east into the Rockies and the
High Plains. A series of weak upper-level disturbances and a
nearby frontal boundary over the High Plains will help foster
rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms. WPC maintains an
expansive Marginal Risk area (threat level 1/4) for most of these
regions given the lingering anomalous moisture aloft and slow
moving storms that could cause localized flash flooding. Excessive
Rainfall over burn scars in the central and northern Rockies could
also prompt flash flooding along steep terrain and in burn scars.
A Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall remains in
place for portions of Colorado`s Front Range and High Plains.
Farther south and west, some moisture from weakening Tropical
Storm Juliette well off the Baja Peninsula may be transported
northeastward into Southern California today At the moment,
precipitation amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to cause
any flooding issues, but burn scars would be the most vulnerable
to potential flash flooding should storms take shape. Residual
moisture from Juliette will race east around the northern
periphery of upper-level high pressure over Mexico and head for
the southern High Plains on Friday. The combination of mid-upper
level moisture from a tropical storm plus the southerly low-level
winds introducing rich Gulf moisture into the region is providing
a favorable setup for thunderstorms to produce Excessive Rainfall
rates Friday afternoon and into Friday night. As a result, WPC has
hoisted a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall and potential flash
flooding in the southern High Plains for Friday.

Farther east, a stationary frontal boundary and a developing wave
of low pressure will focus rich moisture from the Gulf over the
Central Plains, Arkansas Valley, and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley today and Friday that result in strong-to-severe
thunderstorms. WPC maintains a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
today from eastern Oklahoma and and southeast Kansas on south and
east to northern Louisiana and central Mississippi. Flood watches
are currently in effect from central Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. The
aforementioned frontal boundary drifts a little farther south on
Friday, focusing the heaviest rainfall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley and potentially as far east as the Florida Panhandle and
southern Georgia. WPC has a Slight Risk over much of northern
Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Friday. Between this morning
and early Saturday morning, anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain is
expected with locally higher totals possible. Meanwhile, a cold
front traversing the Great Lakes will kick lake-effect rain
showers back into high gear from Michigan on east into areas
downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Lake-effect rain showers
should shut off by Friday, but the cold front marches across the
Northeast where rounds of showers will make for an unsettled
kick-off to Labor Day weekend from northern New York on east
through much of New England.

Focusing on temperatures, the September-like temperature regime in
the East looks to stick around through the end of the week with
daily average temperature departures as cool as 10 to 15 degrees
below normal from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Daily record low temperatures are possible in parts of
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning with some record
cool daily high temperatures are possible in parts of the Arkansas
Valley today. A cold front will introduce a reinforcing shot of
unseasonably cooler air across the Great Lakes and Northeast on
Friday that will then continue to track southward into the
Mid-Atlantic for Labor Day weekend. Cooler than normal high
temperatures will be common across the northern and central
Rockies and into the Great Plains due to the extensive cloud cover
throughout these regions. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest will
see the return of 80s and even some 90s for daily high
temperatures while much of southern and western Texas see
temperatures soar into the triple digits in some places.

Mullinax

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$