086
FXUS01 KWBC 170714
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 17 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 19 2025

...Showers and storms increasing in coverage from the Great Lakes
to the Mid-South...

...Rain returns to Washington state by late Saturday...

A developing low pressure system currently over the Dakotas will
continue lifting northeast across western Ontario through Friday
evening, with a lingering frontal boundary situated across the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region. A new wave of low
pressure develops along this front over Wisconsin and into
Michigan on Saturday into early Sunday, which becomes the next
main weather maker from the Mid-South to the Great Lakes over the
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage from
Arkansas to eastern Michigan along and ahead of a strong cold
front, with the heaviest rainfall expected from central Illinois
to northern Indiana where 1-3 inches could fall, which may lead to
some instances of flooding where convection is most persistent.

Farther south from the ArkLaTex to western Kentucky, the Storm
Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in
their outlook for Saturday, with a more favorable dynamical
environment in tandem with higher instability. This could lead to
some instances of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes
with the strongest storms that develop. A Marginal Risk for severe
weather extends farther north across the Ohio Valley.

Elsewhere across the nation, it will be a crisp and cool end to
the work week for much of the Eastern U.S. with a pristine airmass
in place. Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are in effect for
interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. Across
Montana, high winds will be possible starting Saturday night
across northern portions of the state as a strong Pacific storm
system approaches from the west, and rain and mountain snow
reaches Washington state by Saturday afternoon and beyond. Dry
conditions will continue for all of the southwestern U.S. and the
East Coast states as high pressure continues to govern the overall
weather pattern through Saturday.

Hamrick



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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