882
FXUS01 KWBC 040828
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025

...A slight risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall expected
today from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest with lingering
areas of heavy rainfall possible across western Texas and Florida.

...Threat of heavy rain increasing for coastal Carolinas as the
National Hurricane Center monitors the potential of tropical
cyclone development just off the southeast U.S. coast...

...Heat and humidity will be migrating eastwards across the Great
Lakes region towards the East Coast through the Holiday weekend,
with notable population centers entering the Major Heat Risk
category...

On this 4th of July and into the holiday weekend, the most active
weather across the nation will likely be found across the northern
Plains into the upper Midwest ahead of a lifting warm front,
followed by a cold front marching through the region.  A couple of
clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms containing very heavy
rain and gusty winds are already impacting portions of North
Dakota into the northwestern corner of Minnesota early this
morning.  These storms are expected to reach a lull later this
morning before re-firing this evening into the early on Saturday
across the same general corridor as a low pressure system forms
along the trailing front.  The rain will then reach the Great
Lakes Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low pressure
system gets ready to exit into Canada.  Meanwhile, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday night into
Sunday morning, this time farther west across the northern High
Plains ahead of an upper-level trough.

As the aforementioned upper trough lifts farther north across the
western U.S. today, the recent spell of heavy rain across the
Southwest will continue to taper off today.  Meanwhile, areas of
enhanced rainfall will move across the Great Basin and into the
northern Rockies today and into Saturday due to the upper trough.
Over the Plains, clusters of thunderstorms will keep a threat of
heavy rain in place early today across central Texas (which could
be attributed to remnant moisture from former tropical storm
Barry). The heavy rain threat is forecast to largely diminish by
later today.

Near the coast of the southeastern U.S., a broad low pressure area
has formed along a weakening frontal boundary.  The National
Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for tropical
cyclone formation within this broad low pressure area just off the
coast through the next couple of days.  There has been an
increasing chance for heavy rainfall forecast to reach the coastal
sections of the Carolinas later this weekend ahead of the
circulation center of this low system interacting with a weak
coastal front.  In addition, portions of the western to
southwestern Florida Peninsula are expected to see a slight risk
of heavy rainfall with thunderstorms periodically moving onshore
from the Gulf on the other side of the low pressure system.

For temperatures on the 4th of July, most of the West, southern
Plains, and Northeast should see temperatures slightly below
average for this time of the year. Highs in the West will see 70s
and 60s in the northern parts of the region, while the southern
part of the West still reaches the lower to middle 80s. The Desert
Southwest will be in the low 100s and plenty warm still. The
rainfall will keep temperatures in check around Texas and Florida
with highs mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front will clear the
Northeast and bring lower humidity with maximum temperatures in
the 70s and the 80s. The hotpot for the 4th will be the Midwest
and Ohio Valley with high temperatures in the middle 90s. This
heat will shift towards the east coast into the early work week
and late weekend. Residents in cities from the Great Lakes to the
urban corridor by Sunday and Monday will need to drink plenty of
water and take cool breaks. The Storm Prediction Center also
indicates an Elevated fire weather risk across the Great Basin
today where winds are gusty with low relative humidities.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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