343
FXUS01 KWBC 240805
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...Flash flood and severe weather threats will gradually move
through the Arklatex region today, reaching into the Tennessee
Valley and interior Deep South/Southeast on Tuesday...

...A stretch snow expected to begin near the Canadian border of
Montana today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on
Tuesday, and into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning...

...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the
central/eastern U.S. but turning blustery and much colder from
from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Plains...

A low pressure system developing over the south-central Plains
will be the impetus for a round of heavy rain together with severe
weather threats across the Mid-South through the next couple of
days.  Although the associated upper-level low has weakened since
its journey through the Four Corners region yesterday, its
interaction with moisture returning from the Gulf will support the
development of robust thunderstorms with heavy downpours across
the Arklatex region through today as a warm front pushes northward
and is then lifted by a cold front arriving from the west.
Sensitive areas of the Texas Hill Country which have seen heavy
rains recently have the greatest chance of seeing some flash
flooding.  In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from eastern
Texas across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and into
western Mississippi.  The system will continue eastward on
Tuesday, bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the
Deep South to the interior Southeast but with a lesser threat of
flash flooding and severe thunderstorms than across the Mid-South
today.  Meanwhile, the low pressure system will track northeast
into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night.  Many areas of the
eastern U.S. from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic will receive
rainfall from this system on Tuesday.  From Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, rain will be spreading into New England while
some scattered thunderstorms can be expected to develop up and
down the remainder of the East Coast as a cold front approaches
from the west.

Meanwhile, the next frontal system reaching into the Pacific
Northwest this morning will continue to push farther inland,
bringing fairly widespread precipitation across the Pacific
Northwest this morning, followed by high-elevation wet snow, heavy
at times, across the northern Rockies together with blustery
conditions.  The associated upper trough is forecast to amplify
and spawn a low pressure wave tracking eastward swiftly through
the northern Plains Monday night and Tuesday.  This clipper system
is expected to bring an extended stretch of snow beginning near
the Canadian border of Montana today into tonight, then across the
northern Plains on Tuesday, and then into the upper Great Lakes
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  It appears that 3 to 6
inches of accumulation can be expected along this stretch of the
northern Plains.  From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, this
system is forecast to intensify and expand in size as it tracks
across the upper Midwest reaching into the upper Great Lakes.  The
threat of high winds has increased across the northern Plains on
Tuesday, with the threat expanding across the upper Midwest
Wednesday morning.  The blustery conditions will be in conjunction
of the accumulating snow just to the northern of the clipper
center.

By later on Tuesday, another Pacific system is expected to arrive
in the Pacific Northwest, bringing the next round of lower
elevation rain and mountain snow.

Well above average temperatures will continue over the next couple
of days for most of the eastern/central U.S.  Forecast highs
Monday/Tuesday range from the 80s along the Gulf Coast, the 60s
and 70s from the southern Plains eastward through the Southeast,
the 50s and 60s from the central Plains east through the Middle
Missouri/Ohio Valleys, and the 40s and 50s across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.  Temperatures will be a bit more seasonable
across New England, with highs in the 30s and 40s, and into the
Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 40s and 50s.  An eastward moving
cold front will also bring blustery conditions and falling
temperatures, as high temperatures dip into the 30s for many
locations.   Highs across the West will generally be seasonable,
especially as the Desert Southwest moderates following the passage
of the upper-low.  Highs generally range from the 60s and 70s for
southern California and the Desert Southwest, the 50s and 60s
northward along the West Coast, and the 40s and 50s for the
Interior West.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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