570
FXUS01 KWBC 010749
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern High Plains on Tuesday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
parts of Southern California and the Southwest...

Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off
the Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and
upper-level energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
through Wednesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of Florida through Wednesday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Southern Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On
Tuesday, the front will produce light rain over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and by Tuesday afternoon, rain will expand along the
boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Light rain
moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by Wednesday
and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. In
addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida from Tuesday into Thursday.

Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain
Region into the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated
with down-sloping air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting
a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the North High
Plains on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will
move inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will
produce scattered showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will
create high temperatures over Southern California and the
Southwest, ranging from the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from
the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southern California and
the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest.
Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.!
People spending more time outdoors or in a building without
cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government
websites for cooling center information.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$