655
FXUS01 KWBC 030726
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 03 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies and Eastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains and parts of the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

On Thursday, a front along the Southeast Coast and Central Gulf
Coast will linger through Friday morning before dissipating on the
4th of July. Tropical moisture over Florida and upper-level energy
will trigger showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of the western coast of the Florida Peninsula.  Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast through Friday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, moisture streaming northwestward over the Southern
Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies through
Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, a second front over the Northern Rockies/Northern
Intermountain Region and into parts of the Pacific Northwest will
move eastward, the Northern High Plains to the Northern Rockies
and into the Northern Intermountain Region by late Thursday night.
The front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Plains Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Friday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes. There will be an added threat of hail two inches or
greater over the area.

Moreover, a front extending from the Great Lakes to the Northern
Plains will move eastward off the Northeast Coast by Friday
morning. On Thursday, the front will trigger showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and the
northern Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Additionally, on Thursday, upper-level energy, daytime heating,
and moisture will develop showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, Northern
Rockies, and Great Basin.

Meanwhile, on the 4th of July, as the front over the Northern High
Plains moves across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The
showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of
the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley from Friday
through Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also on the 4th of July, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, Northern
Rockies, and the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin.
Further, upper-level energy and ample moisture will trigger
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern
Rockies and Central/Southern Plains on Friday. Furthermore,
upper-level energy and ample moisture will create showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, Southeast, Central/Southern Appalachians, and southern
Mid-Atlantic on the 4th of July.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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