343
FXUS01 KWBC 182013
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 19 2025 - 00Z Mon Apr 21 2025

...Heavy rain is expected to develop over the south-central Plains
tonight into Saturday with a moderate risk of excessive rainfall
and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday night into
Sunday...

...Snow across central Colorado will slide south into New Mexico
through tonight into Saturday morning as very warm air expands
into the eastern U.S. this weekend...

An upper-level trough that has been bringing snow across the
northern Rockies into the central Plains as well as high-elevation
snow across the Four Corners is forecast to interact with a
stationary frontal boundary across the southern Plains through
this weekend.  This interaction will lead to an increasing threat
of heavy rainfall across the south-central Plains through the
weekend.  The heaviest rain is forecast to develop and extend from
eastern Oklahoma across northwestern Arkansas and into southern
Missouri tonight.  On Saturday, the trough-front interaction will
take a bit more time to evolve before the ingredients come
together over the southern Plains later that day when a more solid
low pressure system begins to develop and intensify.  The chance
of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will be much increased
through Saturday night into Sunday morning from northern Texas
through eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, before
spreading across southern Missouri toward the Midwest on Sunday
ahead of a potent cold front sweeping rapidly across the region.
This is in response to an intensifying cyclone tracking
northeastward across the central Plains.  A slight risk of
excessive rainfall across the aforementioned areas tonight is
forecast to reach moderate risk by later on Saturday and into
Sunday.

Meanwhile, the cold air associated with the upper trough will
produce some additional snowfall across the high-elevations of the
Four Corners region tonight into Saturday.  The upslope snowfall
over the central High Plains will slide relatively slowly south
into northern New Mexico on Saturday before gradually tapering off
Saturday night when the intensifying cyclone moves away into the
central Plains.  On the other side of the system, a significant
warm-up will expand through much of the eastern U.S. this weekend,
bringing high temperatures well up into the 80s through the South
and as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.  By
Sunday, A cold front is forecast to sweep across the entire
Northeast, bringing chilly temperatures into the region under
gusty northwesterly winds.  The front will then settle southward
into the Mid-Atlantic as a back-door cold front brings cooler
day-time temperatures into the region.

Over the Pacific Northwest, the next frontal system from the
Pacific will move onshore on Saturday and gradually amplify as the
system pushes inland through the weekend.  Unsettled weather in
the form of high-elevation snow and low-elevation rain will expand
eastward from the Cascades into the northern Rockies through the
weekend as the system gradually amplifies.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$