676
FXUS01 KWBC 042059
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 00Z Mon Jul 07 2025

...Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the
holiday weekend from the Southern Plains to the High Plains; more
flooding remains possible over saturated west-central Texas...

...Threat of heavy rain increasing for coastal Carolinas due to
T.D. Three located  off the southeast U.S. coast...

...Heat and humidity will be migrating eastwards across the Great
Lakes region towards the East Coast through the Holiday weekend,
with notable population centers entering the Major Heat Risk
category...

On this 4th of July and into the holiday weekend, stormy weather
will likely be found across the northern Rockies, High Plains, and
into the upper Midwest ahead of a lifting warm front, followed by
a cold front marching through the region. For tomorrow, the Storm
Prediction Center has a tarted Slight Risk from Montana and
Wyoming eastward to the High Plains. The main threats will be
damaging winds and large hail. Additional thunderstorms across the
Plains on Sunday may also produce hail with steep lapse rates
noted by the Storm Prediction Center.

In terms of flooding and heavy rain, west-central Texas will have
the biggest threat for impacts from flash flooding. A MCS,
associated with the remnants of Barry, across parts of Texas has
dropped several inches of rainfall across the region from Thursday
night and this afternoon. Saturated soils and river flooding make
this area sensitive to more rainfall. The forecast calls for
locally heavy rainfall to persist into tomorrow as anomalous
moisture and mid-level energy provide a conducive atmosphere for
possible continued flooding. Therefore, WPC has issued a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the area on Saturday. Other
areas of heavy rain for Saturday will again focus on Florida and
the Carolina coastline as high moisture content in the atmosphere
from a tropical low being monitored by the Hurricane Center will
support heavy rainfall rates within rain bands and diurnal
thunderstorms. The threat for heavy rain will continue for the
Carolinas on Sunday with the tropical low. Additionally, clusters
of storms that form ahead of a cold front in the High Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday and across the Central Plains and
Mississippi Valley on Sunday will also be be capable of producing
heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.

Near the coast of the southeastern U.S., T.D. Three has formed
along a surface trough. In general, locally heavy rainfall and
squally weather will be the main weather hazards across the
Southeast coastline. See the latest forecast from the National
Hurricane Center for more information.

Temperatures will be on the rise from the Great Lakes to the East
Coast as mid-level ridging shifts across the region. This weekend
will see cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Boston
entering the Major Heat Risk category. High temperatures in the
low to middle 90s may produce dangerous heat impacts. Stay
hydrated and take cool breaks.The West will generally be cooler
than average, at least relative to July standards, as a trough and
surface front are located over the region.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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