261
FXUS01 KWBC 120718
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 12 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 14 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central Rockies on Monday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades and Northern Rockies on
Sunday and over the Sierra Mountains on Monday...

A coastal low along the Southeast Coast on Sunday will move
northeastward along the coast to the Northern Mid-Atlantic by
Monday evening and then move eastward out over the Atlantic Ocean
by Tuesday. The system will produce moderate to heavy rain along
the coast and moderate rain inland over the Southeast to the
Northeast Coast on Sunday, the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast on
Monday, and the Northeast on Tuesday.

The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf,
and high astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal
flooding in some East Coast communities, generate strong rip
currents, and potentially cause beach erosion. Coastal residents
are urged to heed their local National Weather Service forecasts
and warnings and always follow guidance from local officials.

Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45
MPH and periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The
strong wind and heavy rain may bring additional flooding from
rainfall outside of the immediate coastal zone, as well as the
potential for scattered power outages.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, upper-level energy over the Northern
Intermountain Region/Great Basin will move eastward to the Upper
Mississippi Valley by Monday. The storm will produce coastal rain
over the Northwest and higher-elevation snow over the Cascades.
Farther inland, snow and lower-elevation rain will develop over
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Plains
through Monday.

On Monday, the rain will move into Northern California and into
Central California by Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, the
rain moves into Southern California, with heavy snow developing
over the Sierra Nevada Mountains into Tuesday morning.

In addition, moisture will stream inland from the Pacific over
parts of the Southwest as upper-level energy moves over the
region, developing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest through Monday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may
include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.

On Monday, the energy will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies
from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near
recently burned areas.

Also on Sunday, a front extending from the Northern Plains to the
Southern Rockies will move eastward to the Great Lakes and then
the Central Plains by Tuesday. The system will produce rain over
the Northern Plain on Sunday. By Sunday evening, the rain moves
into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes by
Monday. Overnight Monday, rain will develop over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$