873
FXUS01 KWBC 300742
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Monday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Monday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
parts of Southern California and the Southwest...

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians will
slowly weaken and move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday,
with the energy moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday
evening. A rich pool of moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley
to the Ohio Valley, and then the Mid-Atlantic will be impacted by
upper-level dynamics to produce heavy rain over parts of the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the threat of excessive
rainfall ends. Rain and showers will continue over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, a dry front extending from the Northern Plains to the
Central High Plains/Central Rockies will move to the Lower Upper
Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains by Wednesday.  On
Tuesday, the front will intersect moisture over the Upper Midwest,
producing light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. By
Tuesday afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the
Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Light rain will move into the
Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by Wednesday. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida from
Monday into Wednesday.

Ahead of the front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the
Southwest to the Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated
with the upper-level ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have
prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over the North/Central
Plains on Monday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will
create high temperatures over Southern California and the
Southwest ranging from the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from
the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southern California and
the Southwest.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$