554
FXUS01 KWBC 301847
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 01 2025 - 00Z Thu Jul 03 2025

...An active summer time thunderstorm pattern for much of the
southern and eastern CONUS next few days, while dry conditions
expected across the West into the north central U.S...

...Much above average temperatures across the West Tuesday and
from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains on Wednesday, but no record highs expected...

...Below average temperatures for the Southern High Plains and
Southeast...

...Fire weather threats across California and the Great Basin...

An active summer time thunderstorm pattern on tap for large
portions of the nation from the Southern High Plains, eastward
across much of the southern and eastern portions of the nation,
focusing along and ahead of of a slow moving frontal boundary
across these areas.  Moisture values in the vicinity of this front
are forecast to remain above average, supporting heavy rain
potential across a large section of the southern and eastern
CONUS.  Flood watches are currently in effect across portions of
the Southern High Plains, western Pennsylvania and far western New
York State.  However, with the potential for widespread
thunderstorms and heavy rains over the next two days across the
South and East, localized flash flooding will be possible,
especially in more urbanized regions.  In addition to the heavy
rains and flash flooding threats in this active thunderstorm
pattern, severe weather is also possible with high winds and large
hail the most likely type of severe weather.

Temperature wise, much above average temperatures expected Tuesday
across the Southwest, Rockies, Pacific Northwest and Northern
Plains.  Excessive heat warnings are currently in effect across
southern Arizona and southeast California, while heat advisories
are in effect across portions of the Great Basin, Pacific
Northwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid Atlantic.  These above
average temperatures will continue Wednesday across the Northern
Great Basin, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with cooler
temperatures expected across the Southwest, Lower Mississippi
Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  Even in regions that will see much above
average temperatures over the next few days, there is not
currently expected to be any record high temperatures.  Much below
average temperatures expected over the Southern High Plains
Tuesday and Wednesday where shower/thunderstorm activity will keep
conditions cool.  Below average temperatures also likely across
the southeastern portion of the CONUS the next few days.

While wet weather is in store for the southern and eastern U.S.
over the next two days, dry weather is likely from the north
central U.S., west across much of the Northern Rockies, Northwest,
Great Basin and California and the Southwest.  These dry
conditions will continue to support fire weather conditions across
the West over the next two days, with Red Flag warnings currently
in effect across northern California and the Great Basin.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$