014
FXUS01 KWBC 110814
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 11 2025 - 12Z Wed Aug 13 2025

...Additional rounds of heavy rain across portions of the central
Plains, Midwest, and Southeast through today...

...Severe thunderstorms pose a threat of large hail and damaging
winds over portions of the central and southern Plains this
morning...

...Heat builds across the Intermountain West and from parts of the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through midweek...

A slow-moving, nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from
the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains will continue to be the
focus for additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and
heavy downpours for today.  The risk of severe weather will be
greatest this morning across the central Plains when an
upper-level impulse ejecting from the central Rockies interacts
with the front.  The upper-level impulse is forecast to lift
northeast toward Midwest and slowly retreat.  The threat of heavy
rain across the central Plains is expected to decrease later today
across the central Plains.  Thunderstorms of more scattered nature
will then begin to advance farther east across the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, before reaching into the lower Great
Lakes Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will also extend farther southwest across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and merge with scattered
thunderstorms over the Deep South associated with another
slow-moving but weakening frontal boundary.  This boundary will
initially raise the potential of flood-producing heavy rains near
the Carolina coastline this morning where moisture from the
Atlantic converges.  This system is forecast to slowly weaken
during the next couple of days, but is expected to keep a marginal
threat of heavy rain associated with scattered thunderstorms
stretching from the central Gulf coast through the interior
Southeast and into the Carolinas on Tuesday.  By Tuesday night, a
cold front is forecast to advance across the Great Lakes.
Scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front will then affect the
central/southern Appalachians into the interior Mid-Atlantic going
into Wednesday morning.

Heat and humidity will remain in place ahead of the aforementioned
slow-moving front, in contrast with much cooler air behind the
front from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains to the
central High Plains through Tuesday.  Meanwhile, heat and humidity
will gradually build eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through midweek, with high temperatures
well into the 80s to mid-90s and pockets of Major HeatRisk in the
forecast. The Southeast should remain somewhat cooler than average
due to the prevalence of clouds and scattered
showers/thunderstorms. Across the Intermountain West, heat will
increase and expand eastward through the next couple of days, with
numerous Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings already in
effect, as a reinforcing shot of cool air from Canada reaches the
northern Plains by Wednesday morning.

Kong/Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$