562
FXUS01 KWBC 120746
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Valid 12Z Mon May 12 2025 - 12Z Wed May 14 2025

...Thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Southeast to the
Mid-Atlantic...

...Showers and storms in the Northwest; seasonally cool in the
East and trending cooler in the West...

...Record heat for the Northern and Southern Plains...

A meandering storm system over the Lower Mississippi Valley
continues to deliver a blend of both Gulf and Atlantic moisture
into the Southeast. Today, the shield of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will make its way north into the Mid-Atlantic while
still producing widespread showers and storms throughout the
Southeast. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) from
Virginia on south through the Carolinas and as far south as
southwest Florida. In southeast Florida, a Moderate Risk (threat
level 3/4) was introduced due to the expectation of torrential
rainfall rates over the highly urbanized metropolitan section of
southeast Florida. Locally significant flash flooding is possible
in southeast Florida today. A Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4)
stretches as far west as the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley
where isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. The storm
system makes its way through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Tuesday with the axis of heavy rainfall becoming more fixated over
the Mid-Atlantic. A Slight Risk remains in place over the
Mid-Atlantic while the Marginal Risk extends as far west as the
upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. Through early
Wednesday morning, the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina and
Virginia are likely to see the heaviest rainfall given the
southeasterly flow will provide upslope-enhanced rainfall rates
over the higher terrain. As much as 3 to 5 inches of rainfall are
forecast in the Blue Ridge with localized amounts approaching 7
inches possible. The Virginia Piedmont on south to southeast North
Carolina could also receive as much as 2 to 4 inches of rainfall.

In the West, an incoming storm system will usher in widespread
showers (snow for the higher terrain of the Northern Rockies) and
much cooler temperatures over the Pacific Northwest today, then
throughout the western third of the CONUS by Tuesday. Ahead of the
cold front, blustery winds will be common across the Great Basin,
the California Peninsular Range, portions of the Mojave Desert,
and as far east as northern Arizona. Wind Advisories were issued
for these areas due to wind gusts surpassing 50 mph tomorrow in
some areas, making travel potentially difficult some high profile
vehicles. By Tuesday, rain and mountain snow will progress east
into Utah, Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming. Monday marks the last day
of widespread 90s in the Desert Southwest as temperatures will be
10-30 degrees cooler by Tuesday and Wednesday. Farther north,
expected widespread 50s and 60s throughout the Great Basin and
Northwest through mid-week.

Over the Northern Plains, hot and record high temperatures will
persist through Tuesday, along with windy/dry conditions
throughout the region today. Red flag warnings are in effect
through today with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions
still in place. Temperatures will easily reach the 90s with a few
areas potentially as high as the century mark from the Dakotas to
Minnesota, breaking numerous daily record high temperatures today.
Temperatures only back down by a few degrees on Tuesday, resulting
in more opportunities for record breaking heat in the Northern
Plains. Moderate to Major HeatRisk levels are forecast for this
region -- stay hydrated and out of the sun during the hottest part
of the day. As the upper level ridge advances over the Heartland
the first half of the week, temperatures will continue to heat up
throughout the Central and Southern Plains. The hottest conditions
will be found deep in the heart of Texas where widespread 100F
readings are likely over much of the Lone Star state Tuesday and
into Wednesday. Expect record breaking heat across much of central
and southern Texas through mid-week. HeatRisk values will increase
into the Moderate category by Tuesday, with more widespread cases
of Major values showing up in parts of the Rio Grande Valley,
central Texas, and eastern Texas.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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