267
FXUS01 KWBC 070852
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024

...Heavy snow expected to impact portions of Colorado and New
Mexico while heavy rain and severe weather sweep across the
Southern Plains through the next couple of days...

...Heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to gradually
diminish by this evening...

...Hurricane Rafael is forecast to track more westward away from
the Florida Keys and into the Gulf Mexico through the next couple
of days...

...Record warmth continues from the Mid-Atlantic down into the
Southeast and along the Gulf Coast...

Tropical moisture interacting with a disturbance under a broad
channel of southerly flow aloft has continued to produce heavy
rainfall across the Southeast this morning.  The main dynamics
associated with the disturbance is forecast to track
northeastward, allowing the heavy rain threat to diminish by this
evening as the disturbance tracks off the Carolina coasts.  WPC
currently maintains a slight risk of heavy rain from eastern
Georgia into portions of South Carolina for today.

Farther south, tropical-storm-force winds and squally downpours
associated with rainbands from Hurricane Rafael were impacting the
western portion of the Florida Keys this morning.  Rafael is
forecast to track more toward the west, allowing the tropical
storm conditions over the Florida Keys to gradually subside
through the remainder of today.

Meanwhile, a winter storm continues to get organized across
portions of the central and southern Rockies and into the nearby
High Plains.  A vigorous upper-level trough continues to plunge
south and usher polar air into the region while gradually develops
a low pressure system over the southern High Plains.  The compact
and vigorous nature of the upper low will help sustain the snow in
the general vicinity of Central/Southern Rockies into the nearby
High Plains (mostly within Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper
low rotates and lingers.  If the upper low deepens more than
expected, the associated snow could linger in the same area
farther out in time.  There is potential for a foot of snow to
fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while up to a few feet of
wet snow is possible farther south across the higher elevations
near the Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico.
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather
Advisories have been expanded across much of the aforementioned
areas.  In addition to producing snow, this vigorous upper low
could have changeable influences on the future track of Rafael in
the Gulf of Mexico.  Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on
Rafael.

In addition to the heavy snow, this low pressure system will bring
heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the Southern
Plains by later today.  The highest threat of heavy rain is
forecast to be expanding across western Texas toward southwestern
Oklahoma tonight into Friday morning when the low pressure system
develops and intensifies over western Texas as it tracks
northward.  A band of severe thunderstorms can also be expected to
sweep across western Texas ahead of a potent cold front.  Much of
the central to southern High Plains will come under an increasing
threat of high winds as well especially by this evening into
Friday morning when the low pressure system deepens most rapidly.
This could result in gale force winds to accompany heavy snow on
Friday across the central High Plains in Colorado, while
wind-swept rain impacts Oklahoma and Kansas, and severe
thundertorms sweep east across Texas ahead of the potent cold
front.  By Saturday morning, much of the rain should be pushing
east into the Arklatex region and into the Central Plains ahead of
the low pressure system.  This will allow the Southern Plains to
dry out.  However, heavy snow could linger across central Colorado
into Saturday morning depending on the strength of the low
pressure system.

Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the
low pressure system and a cold front; with 30s and 40s across the
valleys and dipping into the single digits in the cool spots for
overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along
with lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires in the
Southwest over the next few days.  Critical wildfire conditions
persist across California where Red flag warnings are in effect
for portions of coastal and interior California. The Storm
Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for
southern California with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa
Clarita which will carry over for today.  In contrast, record warm
minimum temperatures are forecast to continue from the
Mid-Atlantic down into theSoutheast and along the Gulf Coast
through the next couple of nights.  High temperatures are not
quite reaching record levels but will remain well above normal for
these areas for early November.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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