882
FXUS01 KWBC 150731
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

...Unsettled weather persists throughout much of the West today
before the next strong storm system enters the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday...

...Elevated fire weather concerns continue across parts of the
Northeast...

...Next round of heavy rain and severe weather potential to
develop over the Southern Plains late Sunday...

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will have plenty of
potential weather hazards scattered across the Nation as we reach
the midway point of November. A system crossing the Intermountain
West today will continue to bring areas of moderate snowfall from
the central Sierra Nevada to the Northern Rockies into Saturday.
The highest elevations have high chances (>70%) for at least 4
inches of snowfall and coincide with where Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued. Precipitation is also possible across
the Northern Plains on Saturday as an area of low pressure crosses
the region, with a mix of rain and snow at times. This system will
also have the potential to produce periods of strong winds across
parts of the Montana Front Range on Saturday. As the weekend
begins, a strong frontal boundary and surge of Pacific moisture is
set to move inland across the Pacific Northwest and bring the
potential for heavy coastal/lowland rainfall and snow to the
Washington and Oregon Cascades. In fact, Winter Storm Watches have
been hoisted for the Cascades due to the potential for total snow
accumulations of 1 to 2 feet, with locally higher snow amounts
over the highest peaks.

For the East, two separate storm systems brushing coastal regions
while a large area of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes
and slides over the Appalachians by Sunday will drive weather
conditions through this weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rain are possible along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and
surrounding Mid-Atlantic coastline today due to a rapidly
deepening, but quickly exiting, low pressure system. Showers and
strong winds will be short-lived as the storm races eastward into
the open Atlantic by tonight, with breezy conditions remaining due
to a tight pressure gradient related to high pressure over the
Great Lakes. A separate storm system swinging into the Canadian
Maritimes will produce showers over parts of Maine, with a light
glaze of freezing rain possible today where temperatures hang just
below the freezing mark. In between these two system will remain a
very dry and breezy Northeast, prompting an additional few days of
fire weather concerns. Conditions will remain ripe for developing
wildfires through at least Saturday thanks to a stiff northwest
breeze and low relative humidity, including major I-95 cities
between Philadelphia and Boston.

By late this weekend the next rainmaker for the Southern Plains is
forecast to develop as an organizing low pressure system
strengthens over West Texas Sunday night. This system is then
forecast to move northeastward into Monday morning and spread
numerous showers and thunderstorms between the Texas
Panhandle/North Texas to central Oklahoma. Periods of heavy rain
may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially in urban and poor
drainage locations. A few strong thunderstorms may also have the
potential to contain large hail, frequent lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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