077
FXUS01 KWBC 130726
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 13 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 15 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central Rockies on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southern California on Tuesday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies on Monday and
over the Sierra Mountains on Monday and Tuesday...

A coastal low along the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday will move
northeastward along the coast to New Jersey on Monday and then
move eastward out over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday. The system
will produce moderate rain across the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast Coasts, as well as inland areas, tapering off by Monday
evening. Rain will also develop over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on
Monday, slowly tapering off by Tuesday afternoon/evening.

The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf,
and high astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal
flooding in some East Coast communities, generate strong rip
currents, and potentially cause beach erosion. Coastal residents
are urged to heed their local National Weather Service forecasts
and warnings and always follow guidance from local officials.

Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45
MPH and periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The
strong wind and heavy rain may bring additional flooding from
rainfall outside of the immediate coastal zone, as well as the
potential for scattered power outages.

Meanwhile, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Northwest will
move southward to Southern California by Tuesday. The storm will
produce coastal rain over the Northwest and higher-elevation snow
over the Cascades. Farther inland, snow and lower-elevation rain
will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region and
Northern Plains through Monday evening. Furthermore, rain will
move into Northern California on Monday morning and into Central
California by Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, the rain moves
into Southern California, with heavy snow developing over the
Sierra Nevada Mountains into Tuesday morning.

In addition, on Monday, moisture will stream inland from the
Pacific over parts of the Southwest as upper-level energy moves
over the region, developing showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies
through Tuesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will cause
mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The
flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned
areas. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Further,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday, moving into parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.

In addition, moisture circulating around the upper-level low will
stream into Southern California on Tuesday, creating heavy rain
over parts of the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near
recently burned areas. By Tuesday afternoon, rain and
higher-elevation snow will move into parts of the Great Basin,
tapering off on Wednesday. Rain and higher-elevation snow will
develop overnight Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of the
Northern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$