114
FXUS01 KWBC 010731
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 01 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 03 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains and Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and
southern Mid-Atlantic, on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

On Tuesday, a front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to
the Central/Southern Plains will move eastward to the East Coast
by Wednesday evening. Showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the boundary over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, and a minimal threat of tornadoes and hail.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Central/Southern Appalachians
on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
Wednesday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In
addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger
rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas.

Similarly, on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of the front moving across the Southern
Appalachians, southern Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Tennessee
Valley.

Moreover, upper-level energy and moisture over the Southern High
Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High
Plains through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, moisture from the Gulf will stream into southern Texas,
creating heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of southern
Texas/Western Gulf Coast through Wednesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable. Further, moisture from the Gulf of
America will stream northward into the Rockies, producing showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Central Rockies.

Also, an upper-level low just off the Central/Southern California
Coast on Tuesday will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
over parts of Northern California and Oregon. However, upper-level
ridging over parts of the Pacific Northwest has prompted Heat
Advisories over parts of Washington State, Oregon, and Idaho
through Tuesday evening. Furthermore, as the upper-level ridging
extends into the Southwest, Extreme Heat Warnings are posted over
parts of the Southwest on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, moisture pooling along the front over the East Coast
will produce showers and thunderstorms along the Coastal States.
In particular, the storms over the Mid-Atlantic Region will
produce heavy rain over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic from
Wednesday through Thursday morning.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

Additionally, on Wednesday, a front moving southward out of
Central Canada will move into the Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi
Valley, producing showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over
the region. Furthermore, on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, a
third front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
inland to the Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region and
into Northern California. The boundary will trigger showers and
strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region. Moreover, on Wednesday,
moisture and daytime heating will create showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, the Southwest, and the
Central/Southern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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