500
FXUS01 KWBC 060800
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024

...Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify over the southwest
Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the
Florida Gulf Coast...

...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Tropical Storm Milton will
arrive across the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat
of flash flooding...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the interior
Northeast Sunday with the threat for some large hail and damaging
winds...

...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the
Southwest through the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week...


Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) to move northeastward towards the Gulf Coast of
Florida, with a possible landfall on Wednesday. However,
potentially significant flooding impacts are expected well ahead
of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and instability
increase south of a wavy frontal boundary draped across the
Florida Peninsula. There is now a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 3/4) Sunday over South Florida for a more
concentrated corridor of thunderstorms producing intense downpours
with totals that could exceed 5". This will bring a more
significant risk of scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding in urban areas. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) extends north
along the Atlantic Coast and also west along the Gulf Coast
through the central Peninsula for additional scattered instances
of flash flooding. Another Slight Risk on Monday covers the
Atlantic Coast of the central Peninsula as well as the
southwestern Gulf Coast and South Florida as the threat for
thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and flash flooding
continues. Follow the latest forecast from the NHC for updated
information on the expected track and potential impacts mid-week.

An upper-level wave/surface frontal system will pass through areas
of the interior Northeast including the Appalachians, Lower Great
Lakes, and the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Sufficient instability ahead of the front as
well as strong flow at the low and mid-levels may lead to some
more robust, severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has highlighted western New York and Pennsylvania as well as
eastern Ohio and the northern Panhandle of West Virginia with a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather mainly for the threat of
large hail and damaging winds. The SPC has also noted that gusty
winds and dry conditions behind a trailing cold front extending to
the southwest through the Midwest and into the central Plains will
lead to an Elevated Risk of fire weather. As the system continues
eastward, showers and thunderstorms will spread into the northern
Mid-Atlantic late Sunday/early Monday and into New England during
the day Monday. Most of the rest of the country will be without
precipitation chances the next couple of days expect the Pacific
Northwest where rain chances will pick up by later Monday ahead of
a Pacific system.

A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues this weekend and
into early next week across central and southern California and
the Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists
over the region. Forecast highs continue to soar into the upper
90s to low 100s outside of the immediate coastal areas of central
and southern California, with high temperatures reaching as high
as the low 110s for the interior portions of the Desert Southwest.
Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures
are expected to occur across the region going through Monday.
Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this
persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to
anyone without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for
those spending greater time outdoors. While not quite as hot,
highs will trend above average again for most of the rest of the
Intermountain West as well, with highs in the 70s and low 80s for
the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for the
central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will also spread
east out into the northern/central Plains early next week. In
fact, by Monday and Tuesday, some areas of the northern Plains are
expected to see high temperatures upwards of 20 degrees above
average, reaching as high as the upper 70s and low 80s. Much of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley
will see unseasonably warm temperatures well into the 80s on
Sunday. A cold front passage will bring much cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Monday as
highs only top out in the 60s, with 70s into the Tennessee Valley
and Mid-South. Further south, hot temperatures will also continue
for portions of the southern Plains and Texas, with daily highs
remaining in the upper 80s to mid-90s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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