325
FXUS01 KWBC 110707
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 11 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 13 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies and a second area over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest on Sunday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies Saturday night
into Sunday...

An upper-level low over the Northwest will move inland over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern California and then into the
Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies by Sunday. The
system will produce rain over the Northwest on Saturday. As the
associated upper-level trough moves inland, snow will develop over
the higher elevations of the Cascades and the Northern Rockies on
Saturday night into Sunday. Also, on Saturday into Sunday, locally
heavy snow will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and the Northern Rockies.

In addition, moisture will stream inland from the Pacific over
parts of the Southwest as upper-level energy moves over the area,
developing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of
the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies through Sunday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may
include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.

On Sunday, the energy will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southwest from Sunday through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being
the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or
near recently burned areas. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies and spread
into southwestern Texas.

Upper-level impulses will move over the Northern/Central Plains,
producing showers and thunderstorms over the region on Saturday.
By Sunday, the energy will move farther east, producing rain over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Overnight Sunday into
Monday, the rain will move into parts of the Upper Great Lakes as
showers and thunderstorms move over the Southern Plains into
western Texas.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, low pressure will move northeastward along
the Southeastern into the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday. The system
will stream moisture into the Southern Mid-Atlantic, producing
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic
through Sunday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Rain
will begin to move into parts of the Northeast overnight Saturday
into Sunday.

The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf,
and high astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal
flooding in some East Coast communities, generate strong rip
currents, and potentially cause beach erosion. Coastal residents
are urged to heed their local National Weather Service forecasts
and warnings and always follow guidance from local officials.

Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45
MPH and periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The
strong wind and heavy rain may bring additional flooding from
rainfall outside of the immediate coastal zone, as well as the
potential for scattered power outages.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$