947
FXUS01 KWBC 120723
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025

...Stormy weekend forecast across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and
much of the East Coast with some severe weather and flash flooding
possible...

...Risk of flash flooding returns to the Southern Plains this
weekend including portions of hard-hit northern/central Texas...

..Heat builds over much of the eastern and western U.S. this
weekend with heat-related advisories and warnings in place...

A Summertime airmass rich with moisture ahead of a cold front
progressing from the Midwest/Plains into the Northeast will fuel
widespread thunderstorms across much of the eastern and central
U.S. this weekend. Storms are expected along both the front over
the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and well ahead of the front
along the East Coast Saturday. An upper-level shortwave supporting
greater shear along the cold front from the Lower Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley will bring the threat for some severe weather. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
mainly for the threat of damaging winds. In addition, the
plentiful moisture will lead to locally heavy downpours and the
risk for isolated flash flooding both here as well as across
portions of the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic northward into Upstate New
York/western New England. The cold front will move eastward into
the Northeast on Sunday helping to focus storm coverage across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic northward into the northern
Appalachians and Upstate New York. The threat for
training/repeated rounds of storms on top of the anomalously moist
air mass has led to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) with scattered instances of flash flooding possible. More
isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected westward
along the stalling front through the Ohio Valley.

To the southwest, the cold front is expected to stall across the
Southern Plains with a position likely dictated/reinforced by
ongoing convection. Plentiful Gulf moisture remains throughout the
region and the passage of an upper-level wave will help to support
widespread storm development both Saturday and Sunday. On
Saturday, the greatest threat of storm coverage as well as heavy
rain rates/totals stretches from Oklahoma southwest through
portions of northern and central Texas, where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect. The expected heavy rainfall
totals along with already sensitive, wet antecedent conditions may
lead to scattered to potentially numerous instances of flash
flooding. The Slight Risk extends into western Texas and eastern
New Mexico due to the threat for heavy downpours and scattered
flash flooding here as well. The front will make little progress
into Sunday, again likely dictated by convection Saturday/Saturday
night, with a similar threat for more heavy rainfall overlapping
most of the same region as Saturday. A Slight Risk remains in
effect for more scattered to potentially numerous instances of
flash flooding, especially for areas that are impacted Saturday.

Hot temperatures are in store this weekend across much of the
eastern and western U.S. In the West, most locations will be in
the 90s to low 100s, with low 110s in the Desert Southwest, as an
upper-level ridge builds overhead. The most hazardous heat is
expected across the central California Valleys into the interior
Pacific Northwest/western Great Basin, with areas of Major Heat
Risk expected (level 3/4), indicating a level of heat dangerous to
anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration.
Much of the region is under heat-related warnings and advisories.
Highs into the 90s and very muggy conditions will also lead to an
uncomfortable weekend in the East, with areas of Major Heat Risk
expected across the Interior Northeast/Lower Great Lakes Saturday,
and expanding in coverage across much of the Southeast/Carolinas
Sunday. A cold front passage will bring a little relief to the
Interior Northeast/Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Onshore flow will
keep temperatures much cooler in coastal New England. Areas of the
Plains and Midwest will see below average temperatures and more
temperate Summer conditions with the cold front passage and areas
of widespread clouds/precipitation. Highs on Saturday will be in
the low to mid 80s for most of the northern/central Plains and
Midwest, with low 90s into Texas. Warmer conditions will return to
more northern locations by Sunday as highs warm up into the
mid-80s to low 90s, while much of the central/southern Plains and
Texas will remain in the 80s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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