679
FXUS01 KWBC 071824
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 08 2025 - 00Z Mon Feb 10 2025

...Moderate to heavy snow across parts of the  Northern Rockies
and expand into the Northern High Plains to the Lower Great Lakes
through Saturday and across the Northeast Sunday...

...Rain/freezing rain from the Upper Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and early Sunday...

...Critical Fire Weather/Red Flag Warnings across Southern High
Plains through Saturday...

...Record Maximum temperatures remain possible across the
Southwest & South through Sunday...

A strong storm that originated over the Pacific has tracked
through the Great Basin and is currently transitioning across the
Rockies to redevelop across the central High Plains later today
into early Saturday morning.  The associated upper-level shortwave
feature will quickly transition eastward across the northern tier
and subtly amplify across the Great Lakes into Sunday morning.
Accompanied by these features; heavy snowfall will continue for
the remainder of today/Friday across the Northern Rockies with
another 4-8" in the higher terrain reducing to 1-4" into the
northern High Plains.  This will increase to 4-8" overnight along
the Eastern ND/SD border into W MN.  By Saturday, the snow swath
will cross E MN into northern WI & northern Lower Peninsula of MI
with possibility of 4-8" by Sunday morning.

As the surface low lifts north along the front in the Southern
Plains, it will cross the Ohio River Valley with over-running
moisture from the Gulf to break out another round of rainfall
across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday.  As the shield of
rainfall reaches the upper Ohio Valley later Saturday into early
Sunday, it will cross colder grounds and present the potential for
additional freezing rain and sleet across Pennsylvania, western
and northern Maryland with 0.10-.25" accumulations possible
(decreasing further east toward Delaware River Valley. The surface
low will meld with the the upper-level wave described above and
strengthen the low as it crosses south of Long Island quickly out
to sea.  However, in this transition another swath of heavy snow
will develop late Saturday into Sunday with 4-6" across S New York
into CT.  The Lake Ontario Lake Effect plume will increase
snowfall totals along/downstream with near a foot (12") possible
near the Lake and 6-12" possible through Albany through
Massachusetts.

Behind the system, a cold front will drop the temperatures in its
wake, but only modestly so, about 5-10 degrees below normal.  It
is south of the frontal zone across SE NM, TX, the Lower MS
Valley, Tennessee Valley and Deep South that will see 20-30
degrees above normal with daily maximum temperatures in range of
being broken on Friday, but especially on Saturday across much of
the South.  With the cold front swinging through the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into Sunday, the risk for records presses
to the coast and into the Carolinas.   Into the desert Southwest,
relative humidity and increased winds as the storm develops today
into Saturday will also pose a risk for Critical Fire Weather
(level 2 of 3, per Storm Prediction Center)  across the Upper Rio
Grande Valley of New Mexico into the High Plains.  Red Flag
Warnings are posted for some of these locations.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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