Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
040 FXUS65 KSLC 092223 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 323 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring gradually warming temperatures to the region through the weekend. A weak system will bring the threat of high elevation snow to northern Utah later Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12z Monday)...Afternoon satellite and H5 trends indicate heights building across the forecast area indicative of short wave ridging encroaching on the area from the northwest. With this, a continuation of dry and increasingly stable conditions remain in place attm, and will so over the next 24 plus hours in time. Warming trend temps will continue to do so through Sunday, with roughly another 3-5 degree gain Sunday vs. today, with temperatures pushing to near seasonal norms. .LONG TERM After 12z Monday)...The axis of a ridge helping to bring above average temperatures across the region will shift east on Sunday morning while the mid-levels of the atmosphere begin to flatten. Continued advection of warmer air overhead will be in place through Monday afternoon, resulting in two more days of warming temperatures, with highs across a majority of the forecast area reaching 10-15 degrees above average by Monday. Monday afternoon will feature increased wind speeds out of the southwest as a Pacific trough begins its trek inland. Really no concerns for headline worthy winds, just a breezy afternoon ahead of our next storm. Models are in fairly solid agreement on this Pacific trough progressing through the area from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, draping a cold front across the region and taking our temperatures from solidly above average to solidly below average. Additionally, based on the current model trends, northern Utah and southwest Wyoming appear to be the most favored for any sort of noteworthy precipitation amounts as this storm progresses through the CWA. There are some uncertainties remaining that are tied to the depth of the trough, which would alter the overall strength of the associated cold frontal boundary and how widespread any impacts may become. Not expecting much in the way of impacts in valley areas from this storm as the warm antecedent temperatures will not only favor rain as the dominant precipitation type through the heaviest accumulation period, but the surfaces which any snow would attempt to accumulate on will be sufficiently warm as well. That leaves just the higher elevation areas (i.e. upper Cottonwoods, western Uintas, high elevations of the Bear Rivers, etc.) to take a brunt of the impacts. Even then, limited moisture availability with this system alongside its rather quick progression should bring sub-advisory snowfall amounts (at least that`s the way things appear at this time). Following the passage of the early week storm system, a brief period of ridging is expected to reestablish over the Western U.S. As a result, stable conditions will build back into the eastern Great Basin region and temperatures will warm progressively through the remainder of the week. There is good agreement amongst ensemble guidance that the storm track will remain active as we head into next weekend, but the specifics of the next potential storm are not certain. If anything, trends in precipitation type will be similar to our early week storm (warm conditions favoring rain in the valleys and snow limited to high elevations above 7,000-7,500ft). && .AVIATION...Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. VFR conditions will be maintained with only a slight increase of mid/high cloud cover later tonight through Tuesday. Winds will remain light and diurnally driven, with periods of light and variable conditions during the normal daily shifts in direction. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for most terminals across the airspace, through sunrise fog down to low IFR levels is expected once again in the Cache valley Sunday morning. Winds, in large, will remain light and variable across the region. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Merrill/Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity