706
FXUS65 KSLC 300842
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
242 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Utah and southwest Wyoming will be under a hot
southwest flow today, with dry conditions over western Utah and
increasing moisture over eastern Utah. A cold front will cross the
area late Sunday through Monday night, bringing a cooldown to
start the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...A Pacific storm system is
making its way into the Great Basin this morning as the ridge that
was over Utah and southwest Wyoming centers itself over central
Colorado. In between these two features, southwest flow is
increasing, with breezy conditions anticipated over large portions
of the area by the afternoon. These winds will combine with the
dry conditions over western Utah to produce areas of critical fire
weather conditions. See the fire weather section of the AFD for
more details. Temperatures across the area today will be similar
to yesterday, with maxes averaging around 5F above seasonal
normals over southern Utah and in some areas in excess of 10F
above seasonal normals across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.

While conditions will stay dry over western Utah, the southwest
flow over eastern Utah is drawing deep moisture back northward,
and satellite derived PWs already indicate values in excess of 0.8
inch over southeast Utah. The moisture will continue to increase
and spread northward during the day, with guidance indicating PWs
in excess of 1.0 inch over southeast Utah and up to 0.8 inch over
northeast Utah by the late afternoon. Embedded shortwaves in the
southwest flow will add to the instability, and as a result,
anticipating isolated to scattered convection over eastern
portions of the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.

The Pacific trough is then expected to track across northern Utah
late Sunday through Monday night, bringing a mostly dry cold front
along with it. As a result, will see a notable drop in
temperatures across northern portions of the forecast area, with
northern Utah maxes running near seasonal normals, 10F or more
less warm than Sunday`s values. Southern Utah will see a decline
in temperatures, but it will be significantly more subtle than
what is expected over northern Utah. Any lingering breezy
conditions are expected to end by Monday night as the front exits
the area.

.LONG TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Our mid-week cooldown across
northern and central Utah remains on track thanks to the passage of
cold, dry frontal boundary. Temperatures are expected to be the
coolest Tuesday with a gradual warm up quickly already beginning
Wednesday. Utah will sit in between an exiting low pressure
trough to the east and building high pressure from the west
Wednesday through Friday. As a result, little overall change in
the weather pattern will be noticed.

Over the weekend, forecast trends have been favoring the warmer
temperatures associated with strong high pressure building over the
region over the slightly cooler temperatures associated with a
northwest flow pattern. There does remain question where the area of
high pressure will center itself, thus with questions of how hot
will temperatures get across our region.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast with high based
clouds throughout the day. Winds are expected initially out of the
south-southeast with a southwest shift early this afternoon while
increasing in speed. Winds are expected to be strongest from early
this afternoon into the mid afternoon hours. Wind gusts have an 60%
to 80% chance for exceeding 30 knots between this time frame.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are
forecast throughout the forecast across the region. Overnight, mid
level cloud decks will begin to move in across far northern Utah.
The main impact to terminals today will be wind and wind gusts.
Across many terminals along or near the I-15 corridor, an 80% to
100% chance for wind gusts of 30 knots or higher are forecast this
afternoon out of a southerly direction. Notably, winds will be more
southwest to west at EVW and HCR. Overnight, a cold front will shift
winds out of the north across northern Utah and bring the risk for
wind gusts of 30 knots or greater to around 60%.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sitting in between a trough over the Great Basin and
a ridge centered over Colorado, Utah will be under a hot and breezy
southwest flow today. A very dry airmass will remain over western
Utah today, combining with the gusty winds to result in areas of
critical fire weather conditions. Over eastern Utah, deep moisture
will make its way back to the area, increasing relative humidity
values and bringing some afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. The Great Basin trough will bring a cold front
through the area late Sunday into Monday, bringing temperatures
back near normal for this time of year and allowing winds to
decrease. Still, winds will be breezy enough to combine with
lingering dry conditions over western and southern Utah to produce
another day of critical fire weather conditions on Monday. The
area will see a gradual warming trend for the middle to latter
part of the upcoming week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ492-
     495>497.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for UTZ498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NDeSmet

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity