067
FXUS65 KSLC 011006
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
406 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring isolated showers to northern
Utah with cooler temperatures while southern Utah remains breezy and
mostly dry today. Near seasonable temperatures will then settle into
the area through at least midweek with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...An upper trough is in
place across the NW CONUS this morning, with an embedded shortwave
disturbance grazing northern Utah. An associated surface cold front
has pushed through northern Utah, and it will continue to progress
farther south before weakening across southern Utah later today. A
secondary disturbance will carve into the mean trough tonight,
bringing a reinforcing boundary which is expected to push through to
the AZ border. Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the cold
front, with afternoon temperatures trending slightly below
climatological normals. Ahead of the cold front, however, warm and
breezy conditions will continue to exist across southern Utah
through today.

A band of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms is noted this
morning across northwest Utah, near the H7 baroclinic zone. This
coincides with an area of enhanced upper divergence as well as a
pocket of higher PWATs of around 0.7 inches. These showers will
continue into the morning hours, shifting a bit farther southward
before falling apart due to lower available moisture and the
shortwave disturbance exiting the area. Latest CAMS, however,
continue to show a few generally weak and spotty showers into the
evening across portions of northern Utah. Meanwhile, across the
south, another pocket of higher PWATs exist, between 0.8 and 0.9
inches at this time (a corridor of much lower PWATs exists across
southwest through northeast Utah). Can not rule out isolated to
widely scattered convection within this moisture plume across south-
central/southeast Utah this afternoon.

The reinforcing boundary tonight will bring a drier airmass into the
area. As such, precipitation will be even less likely tomorrow while
cooler temperatures and lighter winds prevail.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Mid late week this first
week of July, a fairly mild weather pattern is anticipated across
our region. The main weather feature to track that can cause some
changes to the forecast will be an area of low pressure dropping
across the Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday before tracking
to the Dakotas Friday. Interaction from this trough with a high
pressure ridge just may be enough to fluctuate temperatures enough
for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. It`s reflected in the
current forecast for Thursday in particular, with a noticeable cold
frontal passage from the aforementioned low. Meanwhile, southern
Utah will persist under hot and dry conditions with little day to
day change in the weather pattern.

The weekend forecast continues to indicate hot and dry conditions
across all of Utah whilst sitting on the eastern periphery of a
ridge of high pressure. There are a small number (<20%) of ensemble
model members that place the center of the low further east than
where is most likely looks to settle over California. If that came
true, expect even hotter temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...A broken mid level layer is forecast through this
afternoon before parting. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
despite potential for light rain or a rain shower in the vicinity of
the terminal this morning. The wind forecast is the most challenging
aspect of todays forecast as a frontal boundary has passed but now a
band of showers and thunderstorms track toward the terminal early
this morning. A few hours of gusty northerly winds are forecast
alongside and just ahead of the band before decreasing and shifting
southerly around 14z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mid to high level clouds
are forecast across northern and central Utah today with a band of
rain showers tracking eastward across northern Utah this morning.
Impacts from this band are generally expected to be minimal with the
exception of LGU where brief reductions in visibility are possible.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail despite the rain.
Afternoon breezes are once again expected across southern Utah and
southwest Wyoming terminals with VFR conditions prevailing in these
locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A series of troughs grazing northern Utah into the
latter part of the week will bring a series of frontal boundaries
into northern Utah, with primarily northerly flow. Currently, a cold
front extending from west-central through northeast Utah will
continue to slowly push southward today. Ahead of the front, a warm
and dry west-southwest flow will maintain critical fire weather
conditions across southern Utah today, but trending a bit more
marginal compared to yesterday. Cooler temperatures will settle into
the area behind the front, and with additional frontal boundaries
tonight and again late Wednesday, seasonal to slightly cooler than
seasonal temperatures can be expected across much of the area into
late week. However, the airmass will remain relatively dry, with
little more than isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
greatest chance this morning across far northern Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-495>497.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/NDeSmet

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